中國，如何消除“效率鴻溝”

去物質形態化與可持續發展

經濟和環境是同一個硬幣的兩面，因為正是通過經濟發展，我們對環境施加影響，而環境既是經濟發展的基本資源又是發展的結果。事實上，那些把經濟置于首位的國家越來越清楚地意識到經濟與環境之間的關系和經濟對環境的依賴性。

盡管中國的經濟發展取得了巨大成就，中國仍然是世界主要經濟體中最缺乏效率的一個，認識到這一點對中國非常有益。這當然有歷史和結構方面的原因，但現實就是中國比日本及幾個主要的歐洲國家等都消耗了更多的能源、原材料，單位GDP產生更多的污染，當然，這使中國有更多的機會去消除這一“效率鴻溝”，并為全球的可持續發展提供了“雙贏”的方式。

中國已經展示了其在可再生能源開發方面所取得的進步——太陽能、風能和生物質能——同時提高化石燃料，特別是煤的使用效率，煤仍然是中國消耗最多的能源。《世界能源展望2007》指出，2006年至2030年，中國將在能源供應的基礎設施方面累計投資3.7萬億，其中3/4將投給電力行業。到2030年，中國的汽車擁有率也將上升到每1000人擁有140輛。但通過效率改善、能源轉變和結構調整，中國仍然有無限的可能在2030年將其一次能源使用量降低15%，相似的縮減也可以在其他產業實現。中國在幾個關鍵產業，尤其是汽車、能源的發展上仍處于初級階段，這一現實使中國能夠比其他更加傳統的競爭者更快、更有效地實現轉型。但這一轉變所需的政策、措施都必須盡快執行，并堅持到底。

知識無疑是未來經濟增長、發展和管理現代文明的主要源泉。技術帶來了一系列新產品、服務、設計、管理和信息系統，它是在全球經濟中擁有附加值和比較優勢的主要來源。它為實現可持續發展提供了這樣的途徑：即生產和消費的非原料密集型、非能源密集型和去物質形態化。CD光盤和電腦芯片的價值主要在于其功能和人類智慧、技術賦予它的特征，而不是它的物質材料。經濟發展的去物質形態化已經非常明顯，美國就是一個例證，其目前最大的出口項目是娛樂，每年高達300億美元。我們經濟生活的去物質形態化為實現可持續發展提供了最有希望的路徑。

在知識社會，教育體系和機構、政策和激勵體系將成為每一個國家取得比較優勢和成功的主要因素，因為教育體系和機構幫助人們開發并運用知識和技術，這些知識和技術對社會的運轉起著關鍵作用，而政策和激勵體系則給人們以動力。對此，中國比其他任何一個國家都更急需，也擁有更大的機會。

新經濟學與國際協議

氣候變化的危險日益嚴峻，這是威脅全球社會可持續發展的首要危險，即使它不是唯一一個，而且這一危險無人能避免。目前，我們已經感受到了極端氣候變化、特大洪水和干旱、高山地帶冰河融化帶來的影響，包括喜馬拉雅山脈正影響著中印兩國成千上萬人口依賴的多條河流。盡管單位排放量指標仍低于美國和其他主要工業國家，中國現在仍成為世界二氧化碳排放的主要國家。而且中國也將不幸成為受其危害最嚴重的國家之一。《京都議定書》、《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》和近期排放貿易權交易的引入都為中國減少二氧化碳排放提供了巨大的支持。

兩極地區冰蓋的加速融化將對低海拔的沿海地區造成深遠的影響，而這一地區人口眾多。未來，越來越多的人將面臨污染和水資源緊張帶來的影響。這些問題帶來的挑戰和危險與人類生存息息相關，且相互影響，這要求各個國家、機構和種族之間高度合作，超越歷史成見和未來沖突。

盡管科技帶來了巨大的變化，21世紀仍很可能見證一些基本、傳統問題的再現，并帶來潛在的沖突：即擁有水、土地和生計的機會與權利。對此的競爭將無比激烈。食物短缺就是一例，它威脅了底層社會和貧困人口的生活，我們對此已經熟知。

我們必須怎么做呢？

首先我們需要一個經濟體的全新范本，它可以整合傳統的經濟規則和生態經濟學的新理論，我稱之為新經濟學。這個新范本必須為這樣的一個體系提供理論基礎，這一體系把自然所提供的服務和環境的真正價值納入經濟定價和國民收入核算，且必須包括財政和監管體系以促進經濟、社會和環境的可持續發展。

在一個推動全球化進程的市場經濟中，市場提供了促進可持續發展的信號，即把征稅的對象從環境友好型和社會友好型的產品、服務轉向稍具危害性的產品和服務，實際上就是合理定價。任何一個國家都不可能在毫不損害經濟的條件下完成這一過程，而是必須通過國際協作才能完成。盡管各國在處理這一問題上各有特點，但只有在國際協議的框架下才能完成。

有效地處理這些問題并不僅僅是寄希望于出口，盡管這看上去是那么的合理。19世紀30年代，美國進步科學協會曾對可能影響人類的新技術作了一次調查，但目前支配人類生活的主要技術都不在其列。我們必須對未來有預見，但我們必須為一個我們無法準確預見的未來做好準備。人類活動產生了極端的結果，這一過程超越了傳統的國家、部門和學科的界限。

我們成為自身未來的代理商，在人類發展歷史上，我們是第一代擁有這種能力的人。今天我們成功與否將決定我們的未來。這并不要求我們在生活方式、夢想等方面具有同一性，但在關系采取怎樣的措施維護人類社會的福祉和避免災害等方面，就要求我們必須在全球層面上保持一致，這樣才能保證個體擁有自我表達和自我實現的權利。最健康的、可持續的自然生態系統正是那些能保持高度多樣性的系統，提醒自己這一點非常有意義。保證可持續性還要求系統必須在合理的基礎范圍內，系統健康、有效的運行正是基于此。我認為，這同樣適用于人類系統。

Dematerialization and Sustainable Development

The environment and the economy are two sides of the same coin. For it is through the economy that we impact on the environment and the environment is both an essential resource for the economy and the consequence of its development. Indeed， those whose primary interests are in the economy are realizing more and more its essential relationship to and dependence on the environment.

What is particularly instructive for China is the realization that despite its remarkable economic growth it is still the least efficient of the world's major economies. There are sound structural and historic reasons for this， but as it requires China to use more energy， more raw materials and produce more pollution per unit of GDP than countries like Japan and some leading European countries， it also produces a great opportunity for China to bridge this \"efficiency gap\" which offers a \"win-win\" means of producing a new generation of internally generated sustainable economic growth.

Already China is demonstrating the progress it has been making in developing renewable sources of energy - solar， wind， and biomass - while improving the efficiency of fossil fuels， notably coal， which continues to provide the biggest single source of China's energy use. The 2007 World Energy Outlook projects that China must invest 3.7 trillion in energy supply infrastructure， three-quarters of it in the energy sector. And car ownership will rise to more than 140 per 1，000 people by 2030 from 20 per 1，000 in 2005. But there is an immense opportunity to effect dramatic reductions of China's primary energy use by 15% in 2030 thanks to efficiency improvements， fuel switching and structural changes. Similar reductions can be achieved in other sectors. The fact that China is still at the early stage in the development of some of its key industries， notably the automobile and energy industries， enables it to make this transition far more rapidly and effectively than its more traditional competitors. But the changes in policies and practices which this requires must be urgently undertaken and vigorously pursued.

Knowledge is clearly the principal resource on which the future growth， development and governance of our modern civilization will be based. Technology manifested in a galaxy of new products and services， design， management and information systems is the primary source of added value and comparative advantage in the global economy. It also offers the main ingredient for the transition to sustainability through patterns of production and consumption that are less physical in nature， and less materials- and energy-intensive. The value of a compact disk or a computer chip is primarily attributable to the functions and characteristics with which human intelligence and technology have endowed it， rather than to its material content. The dematerialization of economic growth is already evident in the fact that the biggest single export of the United States today， amounting to some $30 billion per year， is entertainment. The dematerialization of our economic life provides the most promising pathway to a sustainable future.

In the knowledge society， the educational system and the institutions which help people to develop and apply the knowledge and skills which are the keys to the functioning of their society， and the policies and incentive systems which motivate them， will become the principal sources of comparative advantage and success of each country.No country has a greater opportunity or more urgent need for this than China.

New Economics and International Agreement

The accelerating risks of climate change are a primary， though not the only， example of the risks we face for the sustainability of our global society from which no nation or people can insulate themselves. Already we are experiencing the effects of increased climactic turbulence， extremes of droughts and floods， the melting of glaciers in high mountain ranges， including the Himalayas threatening the great rivers of India and China on which so many millions of people depend for their water. China is now becoming the world's main source of carbon emissions while still much less on a per capita basis than the U. S. and other major industrial countries. It will also unfortunately be one of the most severely affected. The cost of reducing its carbon emissions is receiving great support from the credits available to it under the Kyoto Protocol of the U.N.'s Climate Change Convention and the recent introduction of emissions trading.

Accelerating changes in the ice conditions of both the Arctic and the Antarctic will have a profound impact on the sea level， threatening low-lying coastal areas in which so many of the world's people live.in the future of an increasing number of the world's people is facing growing jeopardy through contamination and reduction of their water supplies.These challenges and the risks to our common survival to which they give rise are inter-related and all require a degree of collaboration amongst the nations， institutions and peoples of the world which is beyond anything yet achieved or in prospect.

Even with the profound changes driven by technology， the twenty-first century is likely to see the re-emergence of some very basic traditional issues with significant potential for conflict: access to water， land resources and livelihoods. The competition for these will intensify. One issue in respect of which we have become dangerously complacent is food security， which poses an ominous threat to the poor and underprivileged.

What will we have to do?

First of all we need a new economic paradigm which integrates the disciplines of traditional economics with the new insights of ecological economics， what I call a new economics. This must provide the theoretical underpinnings for a system that incorporates into economic pricing and national accounts the real values of the environment and services which nature provides. It must include fiscal and regulatory regimes with positive incentives for the achievement of economic， social and environmental sustainability.

In a market economy which drives the processes of globalization， the market provides the signals that motivate sustainable development. This means shifting taxes from products and practices which are environmentally and socially beneficial to those which are least harmful. In effect， getting the prices right. No nation can do this alone without disadvantaging its own economy. It has to be done through international agreement. There is a lot of room for individuality in the manner in which we administer these nationally， but it can only be effectively done within an internationally agreed framework.

Effective management of these issues cannot simply be a matter of placing our bets on the predictions of experts， however plausible they may be. A survey by the American Association for the Advancement of Science in the 1930s of new technologies that may impact on society did not indentify a single one of the main technologies that now dominate our life. We have to have a view of the future， but we must prepare for a future that we cannot reliably predict. The processes through which human activities produce their ultimate consequences transcend the traditional boundaries of nations， sectors， and disciplines.

We are the first generation in history of which it is true that we are literally the agents of our own future. What we do， or fail to do， today will determine our future.This does not require homogeneity in our lifestyles or aspirations. It does require at the global level that we agree on those measures which are essential in avoiding the major risks to survival and well-being of the human community， which ensuring the broadest range of opportunities for individual self-expression and fulfillment. It is instructive to remind ourselves that the most healthy and sustainable natural ecological systems are those which maintain the highest degree of diversity and variety. But to ensure their sustainability requires that they remain within certain basic boundary conditions on which the health and effective functioning of the systems depend. The same， I would contend， is true of human systems.