一封1901年的來(lái)信

2013年9月，蘋(píng)果已故創(chuàng)始人史蒂夫·喬布斯埋藏近30年的“時(shí)間膠囊（Time Capsule）”重見(jiàn)天日，雖比約定挖掘的時(shí)間晚了10年，但卻如時(shí)空穿梭般讓人見(jiàn)識(shí)了30年前的電子產(chǎn)品，也讓時(shí)間膠囊走進(jìn)更多人的視線，得到了更多人的關(guān)注和探尋。2014年10月，人們?cè)诓ㄊ款D老州議會(huì)大廈的一尊獅像里發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)距今已有一百多年的時(shí)間膠囊，不過(guò)這顆時(shí)間膠囊里裝的卻是一些信件、報(bào)紙和照片等。雖無(wú)電子產(chǎn)品，但通過(guò)先人留下的信件，我們亦可以“穿梭”回19世紀(jì)初，去看看那時(shí)的人們對(duì)20世紀(jì)都曾有過(guò)哪些期待。

It is much easier to say what has been than what will be. It is no evidence of special wisdom that we are able to utter this truism1）， nevertheless the past is， in a measure2）， an index of the future. If we know what the 19th century has accomplished for the world， we may fairly assume that the 20th century will not do less.

The seer3）， looking out from his point of observation at the dawning of the 19th century， might have seen more remarkable changes in prospect4） than had ever been witnessed by the human race since the dawning of the Christian era5）. Then the necessities of man were supplied as the result of hand labor. Now the hand simply guides the machinery in almost every branch of human toil6）. We do not think by machinery， but thought has produced the machinery that does for us almost everything， except thinking.

The farmer rides upon his steam plow； he sows his seed， he hoes7） his corn， he cuts his grass， he gathers his crops， he threshes8） his grains， he fertilizes his fields， all by machinery. We cross the seas， we compass9） all lands， we annihilate10） distance， we girdle11） the earth， by steam and electricity. The wild flights of the imagination of Jules Verne12） have been surpassed by the reality of sub-marine navigation.

And now we look out upon this new century， and what wonders will it reveal？ He would be a bold venturer who should dare to limit its possibilities. Long before it completes its cycle， steam will have given place to other motive power not yet discovered. Electricity will have revealed new worlds of scientific wonder. Air and water will have given up their secrets， and from one or the other， or both， we shall obtain our motive power， our heat， our light， our medicine， and all these without the intervention of any other medium. We shall speak around the world. We shall see the face of him with whom we talk. We shall navigate the depths of oceans for pleasure as well as for war-like and commercial purposes. We shall fly； not merely navigate the air with cumbersome13） machinery sustained by bags of gas， but we shall step from our houses， and at our convenience or pleasure \"mount up on wings as eagles， run and not be weary， walk and not faint\". Before the midway of the century shall have been reached distant worlds will be communicating with us， and we shall know the mysteries of the spheres. Let us hope， also， that the \"lion and the lamb shall lie down together， and a little child shall lead them\"， and that the \"nations shall learn war no more\".

George A. Litchfield

Business Manager， Boston Traveler

暢談過(guò)去總比預(yù)言未來(lái)容易得多。道理不言自明，不需要有過(guò)人的智慧就可以脫口而出。然而，在一定程度上，過(guò)去卻能指示未來(lái)。若我們知道19世紀(jì)都取得了哪些成就，或許就不難推斷，20世紀(jì)也會(huì)不相上下。

19世紀(jì)伊始，先知通過(guò)觀察展望未來(lái)，他所看到的未來(lái)巨變可能比自公元紀(jì)年伊始以來(lái)歷代人所目睹的巨變還要多。過(guò)去，人類(lèi)生活必需品的供應(yīng)全都依賴(lài)手工勞作。現(xiàn)在，人手的作用只是操縱幾乎遍布各行各業(yè)的機(jī)械。我們不靠機(jī)械思考，但思考卻創(chuàng)造出幾乎無(wú)所不能（思考除外）的機(jī)械。

農(nóng)民駕著蒸汽犁墾田；播種、鋤地、除草、收割、脫粒、施肥也全靠機(jī)械完成。我們借助蒸汽和電力，越過(guò)海洋，跨過(guò)所有陸地，消除距離，暢行全球。潛水艇已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)海底航行（編注：儒勒.凡爾納在《海底兩萬(wàn)里》中就提到利用潛水艇周游海底），遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)領(lǐng)先于儒勒.凡爾納所設(shè)想的那些瘋狂的飛行（編注：比如《從地球到月球》中提到的利用炮彈飛行等）。

現(xiàn)在，我們展望接下來(lái)的新世紀(jì)，它會(huì)展現(xiàn)什么樣的奇跡呢？新世紀(jì)潛能無(wú)限，想要列數(shù)，實(shí)屬妄舉。在蒸汽的生命還未走到盡頭之前，蒸汽就會(huì)被我們目前尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)的其他動(dòng)力所替代。電力將會(huì)創(chuàng)造出一個(gè)科學(xué)奇跡無(wú)所不在的新世界。人們將會(huì)揭開(kāi)空氣和水的奧秘，從兩者之一或是兩者中獲得動(dòng)力、熱、光、藥品，而所有這些東西都不再需要依賴(lài)任何其他媒介。世界各地的人們將能通話聯(lián)絡(luò)，還能看到對(duì)方的樣子。人們將會(huì)出于玩樂(lè)而探索深海，亦如出于軍事或商業(yè)目的那樣。人們將翱翔藍(lán)天，但不再僅僅依靠通過(guò)氣袋維持運(yùn)作的笨重機(jī)器，而是從家門(mén)口就能按自己的心意方便地“如鷹展翅上騰，奔跑卻不困倦，行走卻不疲乏”（編注：源自《圣經(jīng)》第23卷《以賽亞書(shū)》）。下世紀(jì)中葉到來(lái)之前，人們將同遙遠(yuǎn)的地外星球取得聯(lián)系，將會(huì)探知宇宙的奧秘。我們也希望，到那時(shí)“獅子和羊羔同臥，小孩子要牽引它們”（編注：源自《以賽亞書(shū)》），也希望“各國(guó)不再習(xí)武練兵”（編注：源自《以賽亞書(shū)》）。

喬治·A·利奇菲爾德

波士頓旅行者旅行社業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)理