越南二次革新即將到來？

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

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越南二次革新即將到來？

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

說到越南的革新開放，很多人會想到中國的改革開放。改革開放給中國帶來了翻天覆地的變化，革新開放也照亮了越南的發展之路。從曾經世界上最貧窮的國家，到經濟總量排名世界第50的中等收入國家；從封閉落后的國度到外商投資的熱土，革新開放30年，越南發展的成就有目共睹。

中國古語有云“三十而立”，意指三十歲左右應有所成就，對于“三十而立”的越南革新開放而言，也正好借此節點，總結過去規劃未來。而著眼當下，內需疲軟、走出金融危機、調整經濟結構依舊是越南發展必須直面的問題，重任在肩，越南的革新開放又將何去何從？

越南的經濟結構變得更加合理。

2015年，越南出口額達1600億美元左右，是1995年的30倍；累計吸收外資項目1.9萬個，合同總額約2600億美元。

黎明前的曙光

時間回到30年前，1986年的越南正醞釀著一次關鍵性的變革。當時的越南因為長期內外困局，國內經濟可謂是滿目瘡痍，通貨膨脹率高達774.7%，人民生活可想而知，這個統一了10年的國家亟待一縷黎明前的曙光照亮前路。

也就是在中國實施改革開放后的8年，越南提出了“革新開放”的主張，翻開了發展的嶄新一頁。在這一年，越南通過了《2000年前越南經濟穩定和發展戰略》。這份文件不僅明確提出要在各領域建立商品經濟體制，還要在堅持社會主義方向前提下推進革新開放。當時越南提出的目標是，到2000年時越南人均國民生產總值翻一番。轉眼三十年，這一目標如今早已實現。

根據越南《經濟時報》回顧越南革新開放30年成果的報道來看：革新開放至今，越南經濟規模是30年前的7000倍；在1991～1995年期間，越南GDP平均增速一度達到8.2%；人均收入更是達到2200美元以上，較革新之初翻了近6倍。

而經濟結構也變得更為合理：截止2015年，越南農業占GDP的比重已從1985年的40%降至17%，工業則從27%提高至40%左右；國企對GDP貢獻從1995年的40%降至33%，外資企業（FDI）對GDP貢獻則由6.3%提高至20%。一降一升間，反映的正是越南經濟結構調整的平衡之道。此外，越南的大米、咖啡、胡椒和水產品出口量已跑在了世界的前列。

在政治革新穩步推進之下，開放的春風迎面吹來，越南不僅向世界敞開了合作的大門，也積極融入了世界經濟的懷抱。2015年，越南出口額達1600億美元左右，是1995年的30倍；累計吸收外資項目1.9萬個，合同總額約2600億美元。與此同時，東盟共同體、跨太平洋伙伴關系等多個協定的簽訂，與中國、東盟國家等傳統伙伴的貿易額持續攀升，給越南經濟極大的信心，經濟增長在2015年創下了近5年來的最高水平。一個個耀眼的數字亦成為了越南革新開放30載最直觀的成績單。

從“特困戶”到“新寵兒”

在革新開放之初，越南是人均收入只有100美元的“特困戶”，國內經濟基礎十分薄弱，如何燃起這經濟發展的第一星火苗，越南決定通過引進外資向外“借個火”。而最首要的任務，就是要制定一部務實的新外國投資法。

1988年越南新的《外國投資法》應運而生，當年4月，越南就批準了第一個外商投資項目。翻開這部新的《外國投資法》可以看到越南引進外資的誠意：

允許外國企業投資興辦企業，甚至是獨資企業；對合資企業征收15～25%的法人所得稅，從計算利潤開始，兩年內免征，其后的兩年減半征收；進口原材料和生產設備原則上不征稅。一條條法規，意味著越南用法律形式向世界宣布：在越南投資已幾乎沒有領域限制（具體仍需要審核）、沒有投資比例的限制、也沒有投資伙伴的限制。

因此，在這之后，外資進入越南的速度明顯加快。根據外部環境的變化，越南國會又在1992年和1996年對《外國投資法》進行了兩次大的修訂，包括在越南政府指定的重要領域逐步增大越南合資方的投資比例；以及將外資企業的經營年限延長至50～70年等內容。法律的日益完善，不僅增添了外商投資的信心，也讓世界看到了越南開放的決心，使越南逐漸成為了外商投資的“新寵兒”。

瑞士《新蘇黎世報》網站2016年2月24日報道稱：眼下越南已經在東南亞國家中引發轟動；越南雖沒有印尼的消費潛力，也沒有馬來西亞的現代化基礎設施，但是它現在卻顯示出改革的意愿，并對外國投資者開放。報道認為，如今要找消除貧困、勞動力可靠或者是地理多樣的典范的話，人們會望向越南，因為眼下越南即將出現一波國有企業私有化的浪潮，外國資金和技術將令它們現代化。而且近1億消費者的市場也十分誘人。

那么對于越南而言，外資到底有多重要呢？來看一組數字：截止2015年，外資企業對越南GDP貢獻率達20%，占社會總投資的20%，占越南工業總產值的50%，出口占2/3，為200多萬人提供就業。不過，這個相對依賴外資的東盟國家也曾經在亞洲金融危機中飽嘗寒意，因此逐步從金融危機中復蘇的越南，雖然依舊把引進外資作為開放的重頭戲，但也學會了“不把雞蛋放在一個籃子里”，其未來的革新開放之路或許將越走越寬敞。

醞釀中的二次革新？

在當前的國際經濟形勢下，各國經濟的發展似乎都難以獨善其身。越南計劃投資部部長裴光榮認為，全球經濟衰退對越南影響非常明顯，現有的內在結構已經不符合新形勢下的發展需要了。通過經濟體制改革，打造新的增長動力迫在眉睫。

越南計劃投資部副部長阮志勇此前稱，越南GDP的增長速度的不穩定，從短期看，是受內需疲軟及經濟危機的影響；從長期來看，是因為國內經濟發展不平衡，依靠投資和勞動密集型的增長模式效率低下；正處于轉型期的國內企業還缺乏穩固基礎，出口貿易仍依賴于外資企業等原因。那么針對這些問題，越南的革新開放之路又將何去何從呢？

2016年1月，決定越南未來五年發展方向的越南共產黨第十二次全國代表大會上，越共中央總書記阮富仲表示，未來5年，越南社會經濟的重點任務是集中力量提升經濟的增長質量、勞動生產率和競爭力；繼續有效開展3項戰略性突破；經濟結構重組與經濟增長革新相結合；加強國家工業化、現代化，注重新農村建設。

此外，會議文件中還首次出現了“私營經濟是越南經濟發展的重要動力之一”的表述，加之近些年來開始加大對國有企業股份制改革的舉措，表明越南已越發重視私營經濟在國家經濟成分中的重要地位。但是，越南堅持社會主義定向市場經濟的總原則不會改變，國有經濟依然是經濟結構的中流砥柱。

有學者表示，重視發展私營經濟是為越南現有經濟結構創造更加多元的經濟增長動力，促使國有經濟在經濟結構中更有效率，使得越南可以逐漸適應和加快步伐融入世界經濟。

隨著越南經濟從“量”的積累邁向“質”的提升，外商投資者或許更應該考慮像瑞士《新蘇黎世報》網站報道的那樣，將目光投向越南國有企業現代化的浪潮中。

“越南革新開放30年來取得了巨大成就，但如今依然面臨著經濟落后的危機”。正如阮富仲所說，如何破解現有難題，使國家進一步沿著社會主義定向市場經濟的原則發展，也許經濟上的二次革新十分必要。

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The Textile Industry: Are There Opportunities This Year?

By Araminta Setyawati

T he economic slowdown in 2015 in Indonesia is still having a painful impact on several industries.One of these is the textile and textile products sector (TPT).The performance of this industry is expected to remain sluggish throughout 2016 due to a lack of positive sentiment that might lift it out of its mire.

A global recovery is still elusive along with a domestic economy that has yet to any show sign of improvement.The chairman of the Indonesian Textile Association (API), Ade Sudrajat, is pessimistic about the TPT sector seeing any increased growth in the next year.

The performance of the TPT sector as of October 2015 was far from satisfactory.The Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of the sector has suffered a contraction, or negative growth of 6.1 percent compared to the same period the previous year.This fi gure represents a worse GDP growth rate than that of manufacturing industry as a whole, which stood at 4.3 percent, or the growth of Indonesia’s total GDP of 4.7 percent.

As to the global economic situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for world economic growth to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in 2016.Likewise with the US, economic growth of only 2.6 percent is expected.This affects the Indonesian TPT sector because Indonesian TPT exports are strongly influenced by global economic conditions, particularly those in the US and Europe which represent the sector’s largest markets.

The share of Indonesian TPT exports to the US and Europe generally stand at 31 percent and 16 percent, respectively.This is far greater than exports to ASEAN and Japan, for example.In 2015, the value of TPT exports was estimated to reach US$12 billion, down from the previous year’s fi gure of $12.68 billion, a contraction of about 5.3 percent year-on-year (yoy).

However, as of October last year, Indonesian TPT exports only amounted to $10.2 billion, about 77 percent of the target.Part of the reason for this is that Indonesian export products have to compete with their competitors’ products, especially garments from Vietnam, in the US and European markets.

In Vietnam, production costs are relatively low as they are not unduly burdened by labor costs, which remain fairly cheap.This contrasts somewhat with Indonesia at this time.In addition to the increased cost of raw materials in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, production costs are also burdened by the ever more expensive cost of labor.Add to this the weakening of the rupiah, and it is understandable that many companies --unable to withstand the pressure--have gone out of business.Increasingly high production costs have led to industries, in particular the textile industry, being forced to lay off their employees.

For example, based on the observations of the API, the textile industry centered on four districts in the regency of Bandung retrenched by 6,000 workers during the period from January to May 2015.Imagine how many tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of workers would lose their jobs if such layoffs were to take place across the island of Java.According to the API, those industries that generally resort to provisional layoffs are downstream by nature.

In addition, the level of competitiveness of Indonesian TPT products continues to decline.According to the central statistics agency (BPS) data, in 2014 alone there was a drop in the level of competitiveness of Indonesian TPT products in the world market of 1.3 percent.Vietnam, by contrast, saw its level of competitiveness increase by 1.8 percent yoy.Indonesia’s competitiveness decline occurred not only in the world market, but also in the US and European markets, which saw falls of 25 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Trade Minister Thomas T.Lembong sees Vietnam as a threat in terms of it being Indonesia’s largest competitor in the textile and footwear sector.This is especially true since Vietnam has joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).Competition with Vietnam, in the minister’s view, is becoming increasingly keen as the Vietnamese have also now completed negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU.This means that Vietnam will have access to the European market, which is larger even than that of the US, consisting as it does of more than 20 countries.Minister Lembong explained that through the TPP, its 12 member states, led by the US, could soon control 40 percent of the world market.Thus, it is no wonder that Indonesia is eager to join the TPP, which it is expected to do within the next two years.

For an alternative perspective, it is instructive to look to the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), which records investment plans, both foreign and domestic, in the textile sector.According to the BKPM, there was a significant increase in investment plans throughout 2015, leading to a positive assessment as to how this might encourage laborintensive investment in 2016.As to the realization of investments across all textile sub-sectors during the first semester of 2015, positive growth was very much in evidence.For example, the textile fiber processing industry posted growth of 213 percent by as much as Rp 2.4 trillion (US$ 176 million) from 82 projects, the textile weaving industry posted growth of 613 percent amounting to Rp 163 billion from 25 projects, the garment industry recorded growth of 16 percent, by as much as Rp 941 billion and the clothing accessories industry recorded growth of 563 percent amounting to Rp 216 billion from 15 projects.

Investment plans, as recorded in the number of principle licenses obtained from the textile sector during 2015, were valued at Rp 13.1 trillion, up 68 percent over the previous year.According to the head of the BKPM, Franky Sibarani, this investment figure in the textile sector included plans for the employment of 101,000 workers.The realization of these investment plans is expected to contribute positively toward the creation of the 2 million jobs targeted by the government in 2016.

Investment data that has been presented by the BKPM indicate that there is still hope for a recovery in the textile industry.However, the industry will recover only if accompanied by effort and support from the government such as national brand development and a logistics base for cotton, which is currently being developed to ensure the availability of the necessary raw materials, continued investment and industrial development will take place as further economic policy packages are rolled out.Moreover, industrial competitiveness as a whole is likely to strengthen, backed by declining gas, electricity and diesel prices.The government is also encouraging the improved performance of this industry, including by stepping up efforts to control imports and securing the domestic market through non-tariff policies.These policies include the compulsory application of Indonesian National Standards (SNI), the use of domestic products in the procurement of goods and services (P3DN), as well as the restructuring of machinery in the textile and footwear industry.

Resource: www.thejakartapost.com

(The writer is an industry analyst at Bank Mandiri.)