When Cars Fly 當(dāng)汽車會(huì)飛

By Ian Bogost 盧青亮/譯注

The automobile has long been a symbol of everything great and everything terrible about America. On the one hand： freedom， individualism， power， speed. The taming1 of millions of miles of varied wildernesses through roads， then highways， then interstates. The capacity of American industry—Pittsburghs steel， Akrons rubber， Detroits factories.2

But on the other hand： gas-guzzling SUVs3. Traffic and sprawl4. The abandonment of mass transit. The suburb and then the exurb， with their undeniable ties to white flight and segregation.5 The decline of the Rust Belt， the near-collapse of the Big Three automakers during the Great Recession of 2008，6 and the slow death of American manufacturing and blue-collar work.

Now， after four decades of doldrums7， things are looking up for American carmakers， in ways that would have been hard to imagine just 10 years ago. Yet the changes ahead wont reconcile the great and the terrible of the past； instead， the conflicts between freedom and community， power and equity， will play out in new ways. Heres what that future will look like.

1. Baby Steps Toward Autonomy ...

Google， Tesla， and Uber—companies that didnt even exist when Toyota introduced the Prius，8 in 1997—have become major players in the auto industry. Both Google and Tesla aim to introduce fully autonomous cars within the next several years， and Uber recently founded an R&D center in Pittsburgh with an eye toward ushering in our driverless future.

Self-driving cars are expected to be much safer than human-driven ones. But even if the first robot cars hit the roads in the next few years， most of us probably wont give up driving entirely for at least another 15 or 20 years. In the meantime， traditional cars will gradually take over certain aspects of driving.

Companies have been adding semiautonomous features to cars since the 1990s—things like adaptive cruise control， which uses sensors to adjust a cars speed based on the traffic in front of it， and automated parallel parking. Some cars automatically stop—or at least slow down—if a driver doesnt step on the brake in time to avoid a collision. The driver will also be able to change lanes simply by hitting the turn signal for two seconds （the car will take care of the rest）. Within a few years， cars may be able to determine when an accident is likely and make adjustments to the cabin—moving seats， closing windows， retracting the steering wheel.

2. ... And Big Leaps

While traditional manufacturers slowly add semiautonomous features， Tesla is taking a more aggressive approach. Last year， an update to the software in certain Model S vehicles added the ability to operate via “autopilot”： The car mostly drives itself， but the driver can take over if， for example， the car attempts to exit the freeway unbidden9. Each time a driver intervenes， Tesla registers the correction in its software， which is distributed across its fleet. The idea is that over time， the cars will get better at driving.

Early this year， Tesla updated its software again to add a way to “summon” your car. The car can turn itself on， open the garage door， and meet you in the driveway like an automotive butler10. For now， the feature is meant to be used only on private property， but Tesla promises Knight Rider11-style summoning in the future： Your car will greet you at the airport when you return from a trip or sync with your calendar and know where to pick you up after a meeting downtown.

3. Cars That Talk to One Another

Apps like Waze12 already allow drivers to alert others to traffic jams or accidents. Soon， cars will automatically contribute to a shared mesh13 of traffic and routing information through vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems. In addition to providing better traffic reports， these systems—through which cars will constantly transmit their location， speed， and other data—are expected to make driving much safer. If a driver brakes suddenly， or makes a blind turn， the car will issue a warning to others nearby to help them avoid a collision. The NHTSA14 expects vehicle-to-vehicle communications to result in significantly fewer accidents each year.

4. The Car as Conference Room

Once cars become fully autonomous， they wont need to take the form they have for more than a century. One concept design is the Mercedes-Benz15 F 015， which transforms the vehicle into a “digital living space.” Inside， seats swivel16 to face one another， and a series of displays permit passengers to entertain themselves or work. In other words， cars could double as conference rooms—and employers may begin to demand that people use their commutes17 productively.

Autonomous cars work best as fleets rather than as private property， because a car that can drive itself can be put to use even when you arent in it， and the tech companies making them prefer to sell services rather than products. Eventually， car ownership could become a thing of the past.

That would mean an end to the pride and personalization of owning a car. Not to mention living with one. Perhaps the garage， that great cornerstone of suburban architecture， will become a relic. Likewise parking spaces and lots， freeing up valuable real estate for greener and denser urban living. Your children might give as little thought to the kind of car they ride in as you do to the brand of subway train you take.

5. Where Are the Flying Cars？

Flying cars have been part of our science-fiction dreams ever since Henry Ford18 pitched an early personal airplane back in 1926—Fords aircraft division actually tried to build a “Model T of the air.” Ninety years later， discarded prototypes19 litter junkyards and collectors garages， but no viable mass-market product has ever emerged.

That might still change. The latest candidates include Skycar， a flying-car prototype， and the Ehang 184， an autonomous electric quadcopter20 introduced at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show， in Las Vegas. In 2013， a company called Terrafugia announced plans for a self-flying car； it expects to have a prototype ready for testing by 2018. A commercial21 model will take at least another five years.

When they do arrive， flying cars will likely cost at least several hundred thousand dollars. They may replace the Lamborghini or the Bentley as the status car of the super rich.22 But for most of us theyll remain a dream， even if not a science-fiction one.

汽車長(zhǎng)久以來一直象征著美國所有偉大和糟糕的東西。一方面，它象征著自由、個(gè)人主義、力量與速度。（汽車的出現(xiàn)使）數(shù)百萬英里各種各樣的荒地先后被開墾成道路、高速公路以及州際公路。汽車也象征著美國工業(yè)的產(chǎn)能，比如匹茲堡的鋼鐵、阿克倫的橡膠，以及底特律的工廠。

但不好的一面是：高耗油的SUV汽車、交通問題與城市的無序擴(kuò)張、公共交通的棄用、近郊與遠(yuǎn)郊的先后出現(xiàn)及其同“白人群飛”和種族隔離無可辯駁的關(guān)系、“鐵銹地帶”的衰敗、2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條期間三大汽車巨頭的幾近倒閉，以及美國制造業(yè)和藍(lán)領(lǐng)工作的緩慢終結(jié)。

如今，歷經(jīng)40年的蕭條之后，美國汽車制造業(yè)的情況有所好轉(zhuǎn)，而且是以10年前想都不敢想的方式。然而，未來的改變并不會(huì)和過去的偉大與糟糕相協(xié)調(diào)；相反，自由與集體、權(quán)力與平等之爭(zhēng)將會(huì)以新的方式上演。下面就是未來的景象。

1. 小步邁向自動(dòng)駕駛……

谷歌、特斯拉以及優(yōu)步（這些公司在豐田1997年推出普銳斯時(shí)還不存在）已經(jīng)成為汽車行業(yè)的主要玩家。谷歌與特斯拉計(jì)劃在幾年內(nèi)推出全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車，而優(yōu)步最近在匹茲堡成立了一個(gè)研發(fā)中心，朝著無人駕駛的未來望去。

自動(dòng)駕駛汽車預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)比人工駕駛汽車更加安全。但即使未來幾年第一批自動(dòng)駕駛汽車開始在馬路上出現(xiàn)，我們大部分人至少還要過15或20年才會(huì)徹底放棄自己駕駛。而與此同時(shí)，傳統(tǒng)汽車還將逐漸占據(jù)駕駛的某些特定領(lǐng)域。

20世紀(jì)90年代以來，很多汽車公司就一直在給汽車添加半自動(dòng)化功能，比如自適應(yīng)巡航控制（這套系統(tǒng)根據(jù)車輛前面的交通狀況，通過傳感器來調(diào)整車速）和自動(dòng)平行泊車。如果駕駛員沒有及時(shí)踩剎車來避免碰撞，有些車會(huì)自動(dòng)停下或至少是減速。駕駛員也可以簡(jiǎn)單通過打兩秒鐘轉(zhuǎn)向燈來變道（汽車會(huì)自動(dòng)解決剩下的事情）。不出幾年，汽車也許可以預(yù)判事故的發(fā)生，并且對(duì)車艙做出調(diào)整，比如移動(dòng)座椅、關(guān)窗和收起方向盤。

2. ……然后大步向前

在傳統(tǒng)制造商慢慢給汽車添上半自動(dòng)功能的同時(shí)，特斯拉則采取了更加積極的舉措。去年，該公司對(duì)部分Model S車型進(jìn)行了軟件升級(jí)，添加了通過“自動(dòng)駕駛儀”駕駛的功能：汽車在絕大部分時(shí)候自動(dòng)駕駛，但是在特定情況下駕駛員可以取回掌控權(quán)，比如汽車未經(jīng)許可試圖駛出高速公路。每次一有駕駛員介入，特斯拉就會(huì)在軟件中記下這次修正，并傳送到整個(gè)車隊(duì)。其理念就是：隨著時(shí)間推移，汽車的駕駛技術(shù)會(huì)越來越好。

今年年初，特斯拉再次更新軟件，加入了“召喚”功能。汽車可以自行發(fā)動(dòng)，打開車庫門，并在車道上等候，就像一位汽車管家那樣。目前，這一功能只打算應(yīng)用于私家車上，但是特斯拉承諾未來會(huì)有電影《霹靂游俠》中那樣的喚車功能：汽車會(huì)在你旅行歸來時(shí)去機(jī)場(chǎng)接機(jī)，或者通過與你的日程同步，知道在你到市中心開會(huì)后去哪里接你。

3. 會(huì)互相交談的汽車

諸如“位智”之類的應(yīng)用軟件已經(jīng)可以讓駕駛員互相警告堵車和事故。很快，汽車將自動(dòng)通過“車對(duì)車”通信系統(tǒng)來共享交通和道路信息。除了提供更高質(zhì)量的交通報(bào)告，這些系統(tǒng)（汽車會(huì)通過系統(tǒng)持續(xù)傳輸其位置、速度和其他數(shù)據(jù)）有望讓駕駛變得更加安全。如果某個(gè)駕駛員突然剎車，或者轉(zhuǎn)彎時(shí)沒有打燈，汽車將向周邊汽車發(fā)出警告以免發(fā)生碰撞。美國高速公路安全管理局預(yù)計(jì)“車對(duì)車”通信可以大幅降低每年事故的發(fā)生。

4. 汽車變成會(huì)議室

一旦汽車實(shí)現(xiàn)全自動(dòng)駕駛，那么汽車將不再需要以其已經(jīng)延續(xù)了一個(gè)多世紀(jì)的樣子存在。梅賽德斯-奔馳F 015概念車將汽車變成了“數(shù)字化的生活空間”。車內(nèi)座椅可旋轉(zhuǎn)成面對(duì)面的形式，一系列顯示屏可供乘客娛樂或者工作。換句話說，汽車可以同時(shí)當(dāng)做會(huì)議室來用，老板可能會(huì)開始要求員工把通勤時(shí)間高效利用起來。

自動(dòng)駕駛汽車最好是以車隊(duì)而非私人財(cái)產(chǎn)的形式運(yùn)營，因?yàn)槟軌蜃詣?dòng)駕駛的汽車可以在車主離開的時(shí)候也投入使用，而且生產(chǎn)這類汽車的技術(shù)公司更愿意銷售服務(wù)而非產(chǎn)品。最終，汽車所有權(quán)會(huì)成為歷史。

這就意味著有輛車不再是驕傲與個(gè)性化的資本了，更別說和車住在同一屋檐下了。也許作為近郊建筑偉大基石的車庫會(huì)成為遺跡，停車位和停車場(chǎng)也是一樣。寶貴的不動(dòng)產(chǎn)由此解放出來，以適應(yīng)更為環(huán)保、更為緊湊的城市生活。你的孩子或許很少會(huì)考慮他們搭乘的是哪種汽車，正如你很少會(huì)考慮你搭乘的地鐵是什么品牌。

5. 飛行汽車在哪里？

自亨利·福特1926年推出早期的私人飛機(jī)之后（福特的飛機(jī)部門事實(shí)上試圖要?jiǎng)?chuàng)建“空中的T型車”），飛行汽車就一直存在于我們的科幻夢(mèng)里。90年后，被拋棄的原型機(jī)被扔在垃圾場(chǎng)和收藏家的倉庫里，但是可向大眾銷售的產(chǎn)品從未出現(xiàn)過。

這一情形可能有所轉(zhuǎn)變。最新的產(chǎn)品包括Skycar（一種飛行汽車的原型）以及億航184（于2016年拉斯維加斯消費(fèi)電子展推出的一種自動(dòng)電子四軸飛行器）。2013年，一家名為特拉弗吉亞的公司宣布了制造自動(dòng)飛行汽車的計(jì)劃，預(yù)計(jì)到2018年制造出測(cè)試模型，而推出可供銷售的型號(hào)至少還需要五年。

當(dāng)飛行汽車真的來臨之時(shí)，售價(jià)可能至少需要數(shù)十萬美元。它們也許會(huì)取代蘭博基尼或者賓利成為超級(jí)富豪的身份象征。但對(duì)我們大部分人來說，它們?nèi)匀皇莻€(gè)夢(mèng)想，盡管不再是個(gè)存在于科幻里的夢(mèng)想。

1. taming： 開墾，開辟。

2. Pittsburgh： 匹茲堡，位于賓夕法尼亞州西南部，曾是美國著名的鋼鐵工業(yè)城市，有“世界鋼都”之稱；Akron： 阿克倫，位于俄亥俄州東北部凱霍加河畔，20世紀(jì)20年代初期成為“世界橡膠之都”；Detroit： 底特律，是密歇根州最大的城市，曾經(jīng)是輝煌的工業(yè)城市，有“汽車之城”的美譽(yù)。

3. SUV： 全稱是Sport Utility Vehicle，即運(yùn)動(dòng)型多用汽車。

4. sprawl：（城市）雜亂無序的拓展。

5. exurb： 遠(yuǎn)郊；white flight： 白人群飛，指為了躲避有色人種，白人如同候鳥群飛一樣，紛紛搬到有色人種住不起的郊區(qū)；segregation： 種族隔離。

6. Rust Belt： 鐵銹地帶，指的是美國中西部五大湖附近，傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)衰退的地區(qū)；the Big Three automakers： 三大汽車巨頭，此處指通用（General Motors）、福特（Ford）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）。

7. doldrums： [復(fù)] 停滯，蕭條。

8. Tesla： 特斯拉汽車公司（Tesla Motors），是全球豪華智能電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)品牌之一；Uber： 優(yōu)步，是一家美國硅谷的科技公司，因旗下同名打車APP而名聲大噪；Prius： 普銳斯，是豐田汽車公司生產(chǎn)的一款混合動(dòng)力車。

9. unbidden： 意想不到的，未經(jīng)要求的。

10. butler： 管家。

11. Knight Rider：《霹靂游俠》，一部美國科幻電視劇，故事講述了邁克爾·奈特駕駛著具有高度人工智能的跑車KITT，在罪犯橫行于法律之上的世界里幫助那些無辜及無助的人。

12. Waze： 位智，一款社區(qū)化地圖、路況及導(dǎo)航應(yīng)用。

13. mesh： 網(wǎng)狀物。

14. NHTSA： 即National Highway Traffic Safety Administration，美國高速公路安全管理局。

15. Mercedes-Benz： 梅賽德斯-奔馳，是世界著名的德國汽車品牌。

16. swivel： 旋轉(zhuǎn)。

17. commute： 通勤，上下班。

18. Henry Ford： 亨利·福特（1863—1947），美國汽車工程師與企業(yè)家，福特汽車公司的建立者。

19. prototype： 原型。

20. quadcopter： 四軸飛行器。

21. commercial：（產(chǎn)品）商品化的。

22. Lamborghini： 蘭博基尼，是全球頂級(jí)跑車品牌及歐洲奢侈品標(biāo)志之一；Bentley： 賓利，是舉世聞名的豪華汽車品牌。