基于NearMiss的成山頭水域交通沖突風險可視化

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(1. 武漢理工大學 航運學院，武漢 430063； 2. 威海海事局，山東 威海 264200； 3. 大連海事大學 航海學院，遼寧 大連 116026)

基于NearMiss的成山頭水域交通沖突風險可視化

譚志榮1，張球林1，王偉2，范中洲3

(1.武漢理工大學航運學院，武漢430063； 2.威海海事局，山東威海264200； 3.大連海事大學航海學院，遼寧大連116026)

針對成山頭水域商船與漁船交通沖突頻發的現狀，對船舶交通管理系統(Vessel Traffic Service, VTS)存儲的船舶全程航行動態大數據進行挖掘；在交通沖突和黑點理論的基礎上，基于船舶會遇提出采用Near Miss分布來定量描述水域風險的方法。在Atlas VTS的基礎上二次開發基于Near Miss的分析軟件，根據Near Miss的時空特征實現水域風險可視化。以成山頭水域2013年典型時段的船舶交通流數據為例，對該水域商船與漁船交通沖突風險進行可視化分析。結果表明：基于Near Miss分布的水域風險可視化方法可定量挖掘水域交通沖突風險的時空特征，有助于優化監管措施以降低潛在水域風險。

水路運輸;交通沖突；Near Miss；時空分布；風險可視化

Abstract: The traffic conflicts between merchant vessels and fishing vessels occur frequently in Chengshantou waters, which deserve immediate attention. Mining of Vessel Traffic Service(VTS) data can be an approach to the solution and visualization may be a good aid. The Near Miss distribution method is proposed to quantitatively illustrate the risks in the area based on the traffic conflicts and gloomy spots theory. The analysis software is developed for the Atlas VTS to visualize the traffic conflict risks according to the extracted ship Near Miss parameters. The vessel traffic data from typical time period in 2013 are used to demonstrate the traffic conflicts between merchant vessels and fishing vessels. The case study shows that Near Miss distribution method can reflect the spatial and temporal feature of the traffic conflicts, therefore, be helpful in traffic supervision.

Keywords: waterway transportation; traffic conflict; Near Miss; spatial and temporal distribution; risk visualization

近年來，隨著船舶動態大數據獲取技術逐漸普及，運用數據挖掘技術研究水域風險可視化成為航海科學領域的熱點。成山頭水域作為我國率先實施定線制的水域，已進一步實施內外分道通航方案，不同航向商船之間的交通沖突風險大大降低。但是，該水域漁船與商船碰撞的風險一直存在，特別是成山頭船舶交通管理亟待優化。運用船舶動態大數據挖掘水域風險的時空分布特征是科學開展船舶交通組織的重要基礎性工作之一。……