Abstracts

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Brexit and Its Influence on China

FengZhongping

Abstract: Importance must be attached to the following two problems for the issue of Brexit. One is the rise of populist and extremist forces and the changes they have brought about on Western countries’ political ecology. The other is Brexit’s huge impact on UK and the EU. Leaving the EU has exerted and will exert profound influence on UK’s economy, politics, unification, and international status. The prospect of the EU will be slimmer due to Brexit. How the EU deals with the crisis is of vital importance. China needs to make corresponding policy adjustments according to the changes in the economic relations caused by Brexit so as to promote China-UK and China-EU relations, to boost bilateral economic development and bring benefit to people on both sides.

UK, Brexit, EU, China-EU relations

Analyzing the Tactical and Strategic Considerations behind THAAD in South Korea and U.S. Missile Defense Arrangements in Northeast Asia

QiHaotian

Abstract: This paper discusses the tactical and strategic relevance of THAAD in Northeast Asia, as well as the strategic impact of U.S. missile defense systems, from the angle of U.S. global missile defense arrangements. Based on my calculations and analysis, I agree with the argument that deploying THAAD system and its AN/TPY-2 radar in Korean Peninsula will help the U.S. offset China’s strategic capability. To deploy AN/TPY-2 even closer to China increases the effectiveness of the U.S. global missile defense system. Nevertheless, China is not the sole consideration behind a future deployment of THAAD in South Korea. This deployment is a part of the full spectrum arrangements and planning of U.S. global missile defense. These arrangements will further complicate relevant parties’ calculations and maneuvering of deterrence and defense. It may lead to and exacerbate arms race, and even give rise to strategic miscalculations.

Keywords: Missile Defense, Deterrence, Korean Peninsula, Radar Range, Strategic Stability

Assessment of IS’ Current Situation and It’s Influences

JiaChunyang&GongZheng

Abstract: Recent losses on the battlefield have gradually brought the IS to a defensive situation in Syria and Iraq. In order to reverse this unfavorable situation, IS began to change its strategy and tactics, including implementing counteroffensive by guerrilla warfare, planning more terrorist attacks in Syria and Iraq, and intensifying infiltration towards outside world. This change will not only bring more and more terrorist threats and turbulence to Syria and Iraq, but will also affect the security and stability of the Middle East and the international society.

Key Words: Islamic State; Defensive situation; Change; Influence

Perceptions on the French “Sluggish Syndrome”

WangShuo&ZhouTanhao

Abstract: France is currently trapped in a dual predicament that involves both economic and security fields. It seems to have suffered a “sluggish syndrome” and yet found no way out, with its power frequently questioned. Even though the Socialist government has taken a series of measures and has indeed achieved some positive results, it has had little success in pushing ahead with reform programs. Looking forward, France is unlikely to fall into a severe recession. However, due to the structural confinements, fundamental changes are also unlikely to take place. It is probable that France might have to suffer from the “sluggish syndrome” for quite a long time.

Keywords: France, economy, security, predicament

Road to Peace in Afghanistan: Current Status and Future Prospects

WangShida

Abstract: All parties involved in Afghanistan have realized that Afghan problem can not be solved merely by military means and have attached more importance to peace process. Afghan peace process has lasted for several years and moved onto the fast track in 2015. While the Afghanistan government and Afghan Taliban sat down for the first time in 2015, the death of Mullah Omar and Mullah Mansour interrupted the peace process from time to time. There are lots of obstacles to be conquered before the peace process can make substantial progress.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Peace Process

(Edited by Zhao Jinfu)