The World 2017: Progressing in the Course of Chaos,Change and Governance

By Li Tong and Liao Qin, PLA Daily

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The World 2017: Progressing in the Course of Chaos,Change and Governance

By Li Tong and Liao Qin, PLA Daily

The year 2017 is the first year for the U.S. Trump Administration, is the election year to determine the fate of many European countries, is the year for changing situation in the Middle East, and is the year for the Chinese diplomacy to open a new chapter. What are the new features of the world pattern in this year? What's the impact?

Experts and scholars are having heated discussions on the international situation and Chinese diplomacy in 2017.

The picture of the world: chaos, change, and governance

For the overall situation of the world in 2017, professor Su Ge, China Institute of International Studies, summarized in "chaos, change and governance ".

The "chaos" is manifested in a mess of the international situation, and the remaining uncertainty. Today, the basic posture of the balance of international strength is that the world political and economic center is shifting toward the Asia-Pacific in a relatively rising of the East and declining of the West. The growth of China's comprehensive national strength and influence will affect the change of the balance of international strength.

"Change" refers to important developments on issues related to the fundamental and trend of the international situation, which are mainly manifested in four aspects: One, the balance of international strength is the rising of the East and declining of the West, and the unipolar and multipolar struggles are heating up. Two, great changes have taken place in the trend of economic globalization and regional integration. The mess was local in the past, but now is seen in the world's core areas and countries. The emergence of the collectively emerging economies of developing countries has led to the turning of the global political and economic architecture from quantitative change to qualitative change. Three. regarding the transformation of the world and the reform of the global governance system, the West is relatively negative, while China actively acts. Four, the global hot spots and challenges are changing directions, and the three major deficits of peace, development and global governance have brought serious challenges.

However, there are still some respects remaining unchanged beyond the changes: the peaceful development and win-win cooperation are still the trend of the times; the world multi-polarization and economic globalization, the information society, cultural diversity and innovation of science and technology are progressing at accelerating pace, economic interdependence of various countries in the world and overall international balance of strength are conducive to maintaining world peace.

"Governance" is reflected in China's global governance program. In his Report to the 19th National Congress of the CPC, Xi Jinping pointed out that the major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics should promote the construction of a new-form international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind, which points at clear-cut direction for a major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in a new era. A major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in a new era has several shifts: One is strategic mission shift, the Chinese dream and a dream of building a community of a shared future for mankind are closely connected together. Two, strategic task shift, China fully participates in and leads the global governance. Three is policy approach change, China actively shapes external environment and creates opportunities.

How do major countries manage internal and foreign affairs

What are the internal and external policy orientations of the major international force such as the United States, Europe and Russia this year? How is the interaction among major countries?

The relationship between China and the United States returns to the right track. Yuan Peng, deputy director and researcher of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that this return is benefited from the two high-level visits and the heads of state diplomacy. In view of the Sino-U.S. relationship history and intertwined interests, although there will still be uncertainties, yet the Sino-U.S. relations will not take detour, nor will it capsize.

Europe gets "better, stable, slow and deeper". Director and researcher Huang Ping of European Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that compared with the year 2016, the European performance in 2017 is that economic recovery becomes better -- GDP grows, employment, trade, deficit, etc. are all turning for the better; that the political situation becomes stable -- in several European political elections this year no "black swan" flew out, and some populist candidates failed to win as the outside circles worried before elections; security goes slow -- the frequency of terrorist attacks is on decrease, the heated discussions about security issues become cooled down, the security situation in Europe is improving; the integration goes deeper -- the European identity gets deepened, the theme of this year's Europe is still to focus on internal affairs. However, as the economy gets better, Europe will gradually show strength in global affairs.

Russia's competitiveness is on the rise. Professor and director Feng Shaolei of the Russian Research Center, East China Normal University, pointed out that at present, the most acute problem facing Russia is economic challenges, but the assessment on Russia by the authoritative international institutions shows that its business environment, innovation ability, the energy dependence have greatly improved. Russia is moving from a crisis to a great power strategy.

World economic trend: growth better than expected

How to look at the trend of the global economy this year?

Chen Fengying, a researcher with the World Economic Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that this year's world economic situation presents three characteristics: First, the world economic growth is better than expected, and shows a general and comprehensive growth trend. Moreover, it is worth noting that this year’s growth is not led by the emerging markets, or the developing countries, but by major countries, including China, Europe and the United States. Second, there are periodic, structural and technical phenomena behind the growth of the world economy. Global economic growth has been sluggish from the years 2012 to 2016, growth of only 3.2% last year, but it is expected to rebound to 3.6% this year and expected to reach 3.7% next year. Thus, a cyclical phenomenon appeared in the world economy: from the cyclical recession after the financial crisis to the slow growth of the recovery from the crisis, until now a natural rebound without additional stimulus measures. In this context, consumption, trade and investment are recovering, all of which indicate the emergence of structural phenomena. The most important is technology phenomenon, i.e., economic growth is driven by science and technology. Third, the change of power structure in the global economic governance is still tilting towards the emerging economies. Although the developed countries are leading the world economy, the rising of China and the whole Asian economy is not interrupted.

Security situation: local turbulence is more prominent

Meng Xiangqing, director of the Institute of Strategic Studies of National Defense University and a professor of the Institute of National Security Studies, believes that in this year the international security situation mainly presents five new features:

Firstly, the local turmoil and turbulence are more prominent, which strongly affects the original international security order. Secondly, the "Islamic state" (IS) is disintegrating, but international counter-terrorism has a long way to go. In 2017 terrorism continues its newly emerged features: decentralization, lone wolf, and spreading to the world. Thirdly, the regional arms race has been intensified, and the military competition among major countries has become more intense. Fourthly, major countries further strengthen their strategic deployment of cyber security, and promote the development of cyber space security. Fifthly, the surrounding areas become one of concentrated area of the world's hot spots.

Meng Xiangqing believes that the future international turmoil and conflict trend becomes complex, and more difficult to solve; besides security cooperation between major countries gains some progress in non-traditional areas, confrontation and conflict in the field of traditional security are also growing, which should be given more attention; the impact of major-country competition and game-play on regional and global security becomes more and more significant; to reform and improve the global security governance system should be put on the agenda, which means both challenges and opportunities.

( Excerpts of the article in PLA Daily, 22 December 2017 )