基于Multi—Agent的政府干預下虛假輿情傳播規(guī)律與控制決策

李春發(fā)　劉凱　王晟鍇

〔摘要〕[目的/意義]為研究政府干預對虛假輿情傳播的影響。[方法/過程]首先，基于個體異質(zhì)性，將群眾進行分類，分析了各類群眾之間的狀態(tài)轉移關系；然后，借鑒Bass模型，構建了在政府干預下虛假輿情傳播擴散的數(shù)學模型；第三，使用Multi-Agent技術構建了群眾狀態(tài)轉化邏輯關系來模擬仿真虛假輿情傳播的規(guī)律；最后，考察了政府干預時間與干預強度對群眾行為狀態(tài)轉化的影響。[結論/結果]經(jīng)過理論建模和仿真分析驗證了本文預測方法的有效性和可行性，將為政府準確把握虛假輿情傳播規(guī)律、有效防控虛假輿情擴散蔓延提供理論依據(jù)。

〔關鍵詞〕虛假輿情；個體異質(zhì)性；Bass模型；Multi-Agent

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2018.05.008

〔中圖分類號〕C91263〔文獻標識碼〕A〔文章編號〕1008-0821（2018）05-0053-07

〔Abstract〕[Purpose/Significance]To research the influence of Propagation of false public opinion under the government intervention.[Method/Procedure]Firstly，based on individual heterogeneity，the masses were classified and the state transition relations among various masses were analyzed.Then，utilizing Bass model，the mathematical model was built for diffusion of false public opinion under intervention of government.Furthermore，the logical relation of mass state transformation was constructed by Multi-Agent technique，which simulated the law of the Propagation of false public opinion.Finally，the influence for state transformation of mass behavior was analyzed through governmental intervention time and intervention intensity.[Conclusion/Result]The prediction method was feasible by theoretical modeling and simulated analysis.The above theory research could make government accurately grasp Propagation law of false public opinion and provide references for government to make related policies

〔Key words〕false public opinion；behavior heterogeneous；Bass model；Multi-Agent

1現(xiàn)狀分析

2013年10月，國務院頒布的《突發(fā)事件應急預案管理辦法》要求針對政策部門重大突發(fā)涉政輿情必須快速反應、及時發(fā)聲，在24小時內(nèi)舉行新聞發(fā)布會，并持續(xù)發(fā)布權威信息。這是由于突發(fā)事件發(fā)生必然伴隨虛假輿情傳播，引起不明真相民眾的心理恐慌和信任危機，危害社會穩(wěn)定和政府形象。如：2011年日本大地震發(fā)生后，有人在網(wǎng)上惡意散布我國近海海水被核污染，食用加碘鹽可以有效預防核輻射，引發(fā)蔓延全國的民眾搶購囤積加碘食鹽事件，造成“搶鹽風波”[1]。這主要在于社會低估了虛假輿情傳播的能力，政府沒能及時有效地防控虛假輿情傳播；很多人在接受信息后采取了跟隨模仿行為。隨著新媒體的發(fā)展，突發(fā)事件中輿情的傳播速度和范圍也開始加劇，并出現(xiàn)了線上線下相結合的新特點[2]。……