基于二元邊際的中美貨物貿(mào)易不平衡問題分析

何一鳴 申建霞

[摘要]通過構(gòu)建VAR模型并對二元邊際的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn)，實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示：目的國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、目的國勞動生產(chǎn)率和多邊貿(mào)易阻力與二元邊際之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系，不同影響因素對二元邊際的沖擊力度和貢獻(xiàn)度不同。對中國二元邊際影響因素的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：與擴(kuò)展邊際相比，影響因素對集約邊際的沖擊持續(xù)時(shí)間更長；目的國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模對擴(kuò)展邊際和集約邊際的沖擊都是正向的；目的國勞動生產(chǎn)率二元邊際的沖擊都不太明顯；多邊貿(mào)易阻力主要通過集約邊際發(fā)揮作用。對美國二元邊際影響因素的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：目的國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模主要通過集約邊際發(fā)揮作用；目的國勞動生產(chǎn)率對貿(mào)易額的負(fù)向作用主要通過擴(kuò)展邊際來實(shí)現(xiàn)；多邊貿(mào)易阻力對貿(mào)易額的正向作用主要通過集約邊際來實(shí)現(xiàn)。

[關(guān)鍵詞]二元邊際；中美；貨物貿(mào)易；不平衡

[中圖分類號]F742[文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼]A[文章編號]2095-3283（2018）07-0021-08

Dual-Margin Analysis of Sino-US Imbalanced Trade in Goods

He YimingShen Jianxia

（College of Economics， Ocean University of China Qingdao Shandong 266100）

Abstract： This paper constructs the VAR model by selecting the variables such as economic scale， bilateral trade cost， multilateral trade resistance，labor productivity and so on. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these factors and the dual marginal. The impact strength and contribution degree of different influencing factors on duality margin are different. A study of the marginal factors influencing Chinas duality finds that impacts of influencing factors on intensive margins last longer than expanded margins. The impact of the economic scale of the destination country on the extended margin and intensive margin is positive； the impact of labor productivity in the destination country on the dual margin is not too obvious； the multilateral trade resistance mainly plays its role through the intensive margin. The study of the dual marginal factors influencing the U.S. illustrates that： the size of the destination countrys economy mainly plays its role through intensive margin； the negative effect of the countrys labor productivity on the trade volume is mainly achieved through extended margin； the positive effect of the multilateral trade resistance on the trade volume is mainly achieved through intensive margins.

Keywords： Dual-margin； Sino-US； Trade in Goods； Imbalance

[作者簡介]何一鳴（1966-），男，漢族，吉林農(nóng)安人，副教授，博士，碩士生導(dǎo)師，研究方向：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)；申建霞（1993-），女，漢族，山東臨沂人，碩士研究生，研究方向：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。

[基金項(xiàng)目]教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目“開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下中國反壟斷政策的執(zhí)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及國際協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制研究”（項(xiàng)目編號：17YJA790095）一、引言

中美貨物貿(mào)易不平衡成為了美國對中國發(fā)動貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的借口。但很明顯對美貿(mào)易順差并非中國刻意追求的結(jié)果，而是諸多因素共同作用產(chǎn)生的。

中美貨物貿(mào)易歷史悠久，但是貨物貿(mào)易不平衡現(xiàn)象是在進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)90年代后才變得越來越嚴(yán)重。……