Promoting Golbal Governance and Keeping Balanced Development

Fernando Alameda Alvarado

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Promoting Golbal Governance and Keeping Balanced Development

Fernando Alameda Alvarado

Executive Director of the First Colombia Think Tank Foundation

Before discussing the issue of global security governance today, we should review the past and see how we have come to today step by step and how we have established the present multipolar structure.

I. World War II and Bipolar Pattern

After World War II, the world was divided into two camps headed by the United States and the Soviet Union respectively. The political and economic systems of the two comps were totally different, and with unfoulding of the Cold War, other countries chose the side to stand on. Although there was no direct conflict between the two powers, yet the two camps were in constant conflicts. Civil wars flagged by nationalism broke out in African, Asian and Latin American countries. In Colombia, the impact of the cold war continued escalation of domestic violence. Guerrillas have cropped up here and there in Latin America, opposing American multinationals in some countries while opposing infant democracy in others. Both major powers had sent troops to invade underdeveloped countries, such as Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Although the bipolar pattern did not trigger world war, it led to violence and instability in many countries and regions of the world, especially in the third world countries. China does not fall into chaos, because from its millennium history and culture, China adheres to the policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and non-expansion externally.

Since the 1990s, the world has changed. The first was the fall of the Berlin Wall on 9 November 1989 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Subsequently, the United States became the world's No. 1 power, its economic and military strength in the world finds no match, the world enteres a unipolar era.

II. The Changing World Economic Structure Promotes Multipolarization

First, let’s look at a set of economic data:

(1) China's GDP is close to that of the United States in 2014. We can't help recalling that the United States surpassed Britain in GDP in 1872.

(2) It is estimated that India will be the most populous country in the world by 2025.

(3) The total economic volume of the Asia-Pacific region is expanding and will return to the center of the world. Its economic status is similar to its position in the early nineteenth century.

(4) The economies of countries of the South will also grow and play a leading role in the world. Economic and trade relations among countries of the South will continue to expand.

(5) Europe and Japan are facing greater difficulties in maintaining the existing welfare system as their population is aging. Their high debt, low demand, declining production efficiency and consumption are intertwined, and bring the economic growth of Europe and Japan to encounter more obstacles and make it difficult for them to continue to shoulder their existing international responsibilities.

(6) The United States is different from other Western countries. America's structure of younger population, bigger internal market, successful implementation of the energy revolution, and more innovative capabilities enable it to continue to rank among the world's economic powers. Now the dominant position of the United States in the world is not as strong as before. A series of policies of the Trump Administration may reduce the momentum of American innovation and lose the world market.

Global governance continues to evolve. Global governance before the Industrial Revolution focused on Trade and related issues, and some institutions were created to resolve trade disputes. Since the 1950s, the world economy has grown rapidly, the liberalization of international trade has greatly increased, international cooperation has been continuously strengthened, and some countries have established a series of international organizations accordingly. Since the 1970s, Asian countries have witnessed rapid economic growth. Especially since Deng Xiaoping put forward the policy of reform and opening up in 1978, China has rapidly integrated into the world market.

Today's world is changing from G7 to E7. G7 was founded by the United States, Germany, France, Japan, Britain, Italy and Canada in the 1980s. According to the forecast, the gross domestic product (GDP) of BRICS countries such as China, Russia, India and Brazil will exceed G7 by 2030. By 2050, only the United States will remain in the ranks of world economic powers. In 2014, the GDP of the emerging seven countries (E7) - China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia and Russia – exceeded that of the G7. The world economic power is shifting from the West to the East and from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

New roles have emerged on the world stage. At present, not only nations-states play a role in the world stage, but also new roles such as foundations and non-governmental organizations have emerged. Some of these organizations have played a positive role, such as Doctors Without Borders, but also some have had negative effects, such as organized crime, drug trafficking groups,Al -Qaeda and IS, etc.

At present, the main demand of global governance lies in the establishment of multilateral mechanisms to govern the multipolar world. We need various countries to show such political will. In the era of globalization, commodities can flow across national borders, and the actions of a country will have an impact on other countries, such as the international financial crisis spreading around the world is the best example. Therefore, many of today's problems are international in nature, and need us to look at them from a global perspective, such as climate change, Internet security, terrorism, drug trafficking, etc., so we need to completely change the current global governance model. After the end of World War II, various countries established the World Bank in 1944 and the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund in 1945. Each country's responsibility in these institutions was determined according to the outcome of World War II. At present, China has nearly 1.4 billion people while Belgium has only 11 million, but China’s voting power in the International Monetary Fund is only twice that of Belgium. Generally speaking, the voting rights of developed countries such as G7 are much higher than those of emerging economies such as BRICS countries with the same level of GDP. The G20 mechanism gives emerging economies more power to participate in global governance. At the Seoul Summit in 2010, many countries proposed to promote WTO reform to redistribute its power in a more equitable way, but the relevant reforms have not been implemented so far. In 2014, BRICS countries decided to set up their own banks to strengthen their financial cooperation with each other. China has also formed a world-wide bank -- the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank -- and invited all other countries to participate actively. European countries, Australia and New Zealand all decide to join. These practices make global governance fragmented, but we should not take a negative attitude towards it. So if new international institutions can cooperate with old ones, we can make current international governance more balanced.

Various countries should respect different historical and cultural traditions and concentrate on dealing with common enemies, such as drug trafficking, organized crime, terrorism and cyber security. But if countries do not share their responsibilities equally in global governance, it will be difficult to get united to respond to these problems of violence and instability. Another important principle for achieving global governance is that neither developed nor developing countries should interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. Because once a country interferes with other country, which will not only cause regional conflicts, but also cause international problems, and the policy of alliance among countries will also lead to the expansion of conflicts.

III. Conclusion

In order to achieve world security, we must not only avoid fighting with each other among countries, but also deal with new threats and challenges, and need to promote a more balanced global governance system that fully reflects the economic volume and population size of various countries. All countries should develop reasonable and peaceful international relations on the basis of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and allow other peoples to choose a development model that suits their development stage. Small-scale conflicts may evolve into a large-scale international war, and in an era as powerful countries possess nuclear weapons, a war may threaten the survival of mankind. Nuclear-weapon states should discuss these issues in depth.

(Edited excerpt of the paper to the observant event in Nanjing 2018)