China’s Active Role in Afghan Peace Process

Hekmatullah Azamy, Acting Director

?

China’s Active Role in Afghan Peace Process

Hekmatullah Azamy, Acting Director

Center for Conflict and Peace Studies, Afghanistan

Allow me to start by thanking the CPAPDfor inviting me to speak in this important event and giving the opportunity to sharemy insights on peace in Afghanistan and its implications in the broader South and Central Asia region and beyond.

Today, I am representing a country that has suffered from violence and terrorism in the last four decades. It is an unfortunate reality that after Syria, the lingering violence in Afghanistan has turned the country into the second least peaceful onein the world.

The younger generation is paying aheavy price for the conflict. It is the generation that I am representing. We are the generation that is born, raised and married in violenceand witnessing the worst of brutalities.

We are also the generation with resolute commitment and working tirelessly to achieve peace in Afghanistan so that we leave a better and peaceful country for the generation after us.

Despite all our efforts, we still see fewer prospects and more challenges for Afghanistan to end the conflict and it is because the Afghan conflict is very complicated.

Dear ladies and gentlemen:

Today, I attempt to draw a picture of the Afghan conflict based on ground realities, brief you on current status of peace talks and discuss why peace in Afghanistan is important for regional and world peace.

First and foremost, let me make this clear that the ongoing violence in Afghanistan is not a civil war. It is a war whereregional and international players areinvolved. Many countries pursue their interests that often diverge with their rivals.

如今，伴隨著信息化技術以及經濟全球化的高速深入發展，企業管理模式已經不再滿足于過去單一、傳統的企業管理理念。因此，我國企業必須開展信息化管理工作。企業高速發展的根基就在于企業內部信息的高度集成以及順利交流。通過高效、準確的信息傳送，企業管理工作人員可以科學地經營并做出精準的決策，從而推進我國企業的持續前進。因此，我國企業必須共享企業信息資源、各部門綜合管理、不斷提升企業領導層的重視程度以及政府支持并推動中小企業的信息化建設，從而進一步開展企業信息化管理，始終保持著良好的競爭優勢。

Instead of competition in their own countries, these actors have chosen Afghanistan as the battlefield for their competitions, support non-state actors and use them as proxies.

As a result of suchapproach, Taliban has becomea force that controls almost 50% of the Afghan territory and challenge the Afghan government.

Many of these countries believe that Taliban is an Afghan centric group and their agenda is only limited to Afghanistan. However, it is Taliban militancy that provides a conducive environment for transnational terrorist to operate from Afghanistan and enjoy safe sanctuaries in areas under Taliban control.

Today, there are 20 groups operating in and from Afghanistan. These 20 groups can be classified into four categories: 1) local groups fighting in Afghanistan, 2) Pakistani groups fighting both in Afghanistan and Pakistan; 3) groups withregional agenda, and finally, groups with global agenda.

To give an example, the Uzbek-born Abdulkadir Masharipov, who carried out a deadly attack on New Year in Istanbul nightclub was trained in Afghanistan and had no interest to fight in Afghanistan.

Such cases remind us that terrorism recognizes no boundaries and Afghanconflict has already overshadowed peace in Afghanistan’s immediate and regional neighbors and countries around the globe. It has turned Afghanistan into a liability for the region.

While we fight all the militant and terrorist groups indiscriminately, we also pursue a four-track comprehensive approach for peace process with the Taliban – a group that remains the strongest and largest in Afghanistan.

This four-track approach is 1) to do our homework at home, 2) build trust with Pakistan, 3) build regional consensus under various platforms and 4) directly engage with the Taliban.

The Afghan government has offered negotiations with the Taliban with no-preconditions, declared an unconditional ceasefire in June 2018 and again in August. Released around 500 Taliban prisoners in August 2018. There are now two parallel peace processes of the Taliban with the Americans and Taliban with the Afghan government. However, despite these, there is no substantial progress in peace talks.

Distinguished participants:

There are several factors that complicate peace process but our understanding is that the following three factors are the main ones:

1) As long as the Taliban leadership is outside Afghanistan and having safe havens abroad and making millions of US dollars annually, this war is not possible to end. Pakistan’s role in denying Taliban safe havens is vital.

2) The US military presence in Afghanistan is the biggest elephant in the room. It takes the peace talks to an egg-chicken dilemma of whether the United States must leave first and peace comes second or Taliban has to make peace first and the United States leaves after.

It is natural that no country wants to live under occupation. For Afghans, this sense is even stronger. We, of course, do not want the United States to stay in our country. However, there are few concerns that Afghans have.

It is again an unfortunate reality, that without the US financial and military support, the Afghan government cannot sustain for a month. So if the United States leaves, will the Taliban agree to negotiate or will continue fighting? This had happened in the 1980s when the Soviet Union left and the violence continued.

The US presence in Afghanistan is definitely a concern even for countries like Russia, Iran and even China. But even they want the United States to stay because with the full withdrawal of the United States, the situation would get worse.

3) Taliban internal division and the future of their rank and file. Peace talks is no longer a taboo in the leadership because they also realize that they cannot win militarily. However, whenever there is progress in talks, certain elements within the group rebel. More, importantly, Taliban are also uncertain what would happen to the rank and file of the group once the leadership decides to negotiate. The leadership fears that its hard-core members or foreign fighters are very much likely to join Taliban’s rival groups like Daesh should Taliban negotiate.

In all these three factors, China can play a crucial role.

President Ashraf Ghani made his first visit to China soon after taking over thepower in October 2014 – a move indicating recognition of Beijing’s role in ending thewar in the country.

President Ghani courted Beijing and provided an open door for its participation in setting up peace talks with theTaliban. This pivot has been grounded in the belief that China is not only willing toextend a helping hand to Afghanistan in peace efforts, but also capable to apply leverageson other regional actors to play a constructive role.

In the meantime, Taliban sources also confirm that the group is in favor of engagement with China and other regional countries to work towards stabilizing Afghanistan. All this, is seen that China has confidence of the Taliban and the group considers Beijing as a credible broker and guarantor when or if the peace dialogue begins.

The role China can play would be a constructive one. China is not seen a side to the conflict so far while the United States, Pakistan, Russia, and others are a side of the conflict.

Finally, we firmly believe that China’s engagement and that of CPAPD in the Afghan peace process would be useful.My centre offers its services to China, particularly CPAPD to better understandlocal dynamics and peace process, which can help China to play an effective role.