Remarks at the 9th US-China Peace Dialogue

Remarks at the 9thUS-China Peace Dialogue

By Robert S. Ross, Professor on Politics, Boston University

From 1979 to 2009, the United States and China developed a multifaceted relationship that enabled cooperation across a broad agenda of bilateral, regional and global issues. The United States and China developed extensive cooperation on such bilateral issues as trade and investment policies and on such global issues as development aid, environmental protection and global warming, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and nuclear and conventional weapons non-proliferation.

This cooperation was not premised on a harmony of interests or on the absence of conflicts of interests. Throughout this period the United States and China differed over many important issues, including U.S. military ties with Taiwan, North Korean nuclear proliferation, and, at times, Chinese arms exports.

Thus, the success of U.S.-China relations reflected a joint commitment to a relationship of conflict and cooperation. There were many U.S.-China conflicts of interests, but both Beijing and Washington did not allow such conflicts to interfere with opportunities to develop cooperation that enabled significant mutual benefit. The United States and China normalized relations in 1979, despite significant differences regarding Taiwan. Similarly, in the 1990s U.S.-China negotiated over most-favored-nation trade status for China; China’s entry into the WTO and into the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty took place through the give-and take of diplomacy and negotiations. And through the 2000s, U.S.-China cooperation contributed to stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Contemporary U.S.-China relations present a greater challenge to cooperation than any challenge since Henry Kissinger visited China in 1971. The rise of China necessarily challenges the regional security order that has been the foundation of U.S. presence in East Asia since World War II. The United States cannot but be concerned that China’s rise will undermine U.S. security interests in East Asia. Washington should be expected to focus on security competition with China and on negotiations to rebalance the bilateral economic relationship.

But in this context, U.S.-China cooperation has ceased on the bilateral and global issues that had been the foundation of the relations since 1971. The power transition and the escalation of security and trade conflicts have infected the entire U.S.-China relationship, to the mutual harm of both the American and Chinese people.

This trend in U.S.-China relations is not the inescapable result of the U.S.-China power transition. The extent of tension over conflicts of interest and the impact of particular conflicts on the broader relationship reflect discreet leadership policy decisions rather than structural, interest-driven outcomes.

Going forward, there will be opportunities for American and Chinese leaders to reevaluate contemporary trends and to reconsider foreign policies and thus adopt policies that reflect the multifaceted nature of U.S.-China relations and that enable conflict and cooperation. In so doing, they can reduce the costs of conflicts of interests to their respective economies and societies, reduce the risk of conflict escalation in maritime East Asia, and ultimately maximize mutual benefit.

By focusing on conflict and cooperation, the United States and China can develop mutually beneficial policies:

The United States and China can deescalate the trade war and escalatory sanctions and seek a negotiated solution that reflects mutual compromise, mutual opportunities to ensure enforcement, and respect for sovereignty.

Government cyber protection of national security information can coexist with technological openness in the civilian economy.

In maritime East Asia, rather than seeking absolute security and insisting on rigid resistance to change, United States and China can develop security policies that enable space for both countries to enjoy security in East Asia, thus mitigating the costs and risks associated with great power competition.

As China develops its bilateral aid programs and multilateral institutions for development assistance, the United States and China can work together to promote economic progress in the developing nations, both bilaterally and through cooperation between the AIIB, the World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB.

In an atmosphere of conflict and cooperation, China and the United States should reengage cooperation on such issues as international drug trafficking, nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula, and global warming.

The United States and China should work together to promote energy security and conflict management in the Middle East.