張楠



摘要:利用云南國(guó)家9個(gè)氣象站觀測(cè)1956-2017年的氣溫和降水資料,采用線性回歸分析,趨勢(shì)線分析、累積距平統(tǒng)計(jì)量與信噪比檢驗(yàn)方法,對(duì)62年來(lái)的氣溫和降水變化進(jìn)行特性分析。結(jié)果表明:云南省年平均氣溫呈現(xiàn)逐年增加的趨勢(shì),降水量都出現(xiàn)逐年減小的趨勢(shì),不考慮量綱差異,其降低速率具有反向相關(guān)性,大致年平均氣溫每升高1℃,年降水量減少24.2mm。四季氣溫均呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步上升趨勢(shì),其中夏季氣溫升高最為顯著,四季降水量變化表現(xiàn)為春、冬兩季降水量有所增加,夏、秋兩季降水量有所減小。
Abstract: The temperature and precipitation data from 1956 to 2017 were observed at 9 national weather stations in Yunnan province, and the characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes over 62 years were analyzed by using linear regression analysis, trend line analysis, cumulative anomaly statistics and signal-to-noise ratio test methods. The results show that the annual average temperature in Yunnan province shows a trend of increasing year by year, and the precipitation shows a trend of decreasing year by year. Regardless of dimensional differences, the decreasing rate is inversely correlated, and the approximate annual average temperature decreases by 24.2mm for every 1℃ increase. The temperature in all four seasons showed a steady trend of rise, among which the temperature in summer was the most significant. The change of precipitation in the four seasons showed that the precipitation in spring and winter increased, while the precipitation in summer and autumn decreased.
關(guān)鍵詞:氣溫;降水;季節(jié)變化;年際變化
Key words: temperature;precipitation;seasonal changes;interannual variability
中圖分類號(hào):P333 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?文章編號(hào):1006-4311(2020)25-0241-04
1 ?研究背景
云南省地處中國(guó)南部,屬青藏高原南延部分,平均海拔2000米左右。地形上常常以元江谷地和云嶺山脈中的寬谷為界,將其劃分成東、西兩大地形區(qū)。東部稱為滇東、滇中高原,地形波狀起伏,表現(xiàn)為起伏和緩的低山和渾圓丘陵,巖溶廣泛發(fā)育。西部為橫斷山脈縱谷區(qū),高山深谷相間,相對(duì)高差較大,地勢(shì)險(xiǎn)峻。云南地處低緯高原,地形地貌復(fù)雜,氣候類型多變,雨量較為充沛,但是每年都會(huì)出現(xiàn)不同程度的干旱,這種濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)的臨時(shí)干旱特點(diǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)及工業(yè)有很大的影響[1-4]。同時(shí)隨著全球氣候變暖及極端天氣的增多,探究云南省的氣溫和降水量是否有與全球氣候變暖趨勢(shì)一致這一問(wèn)題,對(duì)社會(huì)生產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)都有著及其重要的意義。
本文以來(lái)自空間離散分布的氣象臺(tái)站的氣候數(shù)據(jù)資料,研究了云南地區(qū)氣候條件隨時(shí)間發(fā)生的變化。……