Russia's Strategy and Sino-Russian Relations in the International Profound Changes

Russia's Strategy and Sino-Russian Relations in the International Profound Changes

Jiang Yi,

Researcher, Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies,

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

In the context of rampant novel coronavirus pandemic and the growing strategic competition between China and the United States, Russia also has its new views on the world situation and its foreign strategy, which deserves our attention.

I. Russia's views on the world situation

After the COVID-19 outbreak, Russian think-tanks and strategic scientists generally believe that the characteristics of the world situation can be attributed to four "invariables" and one "variable".

Four invariables: Firstly, nationalism and populism continue to heat up in many countries. Nationalism replaces liberalism, and has become the mainstream of the new trend of thoughts worldwide. Secondly, under the influence of this trend of thought, the de-globalization process that has appeared in the early stage continues to ferment, and the situation of distrust and lack of cooperation willingness among countries is becoming more and more obvious. "Hobbesian" self-protection is reflected in the policies of major countries, and this policy trend is not only reflected in the anti- pandemic action, but also in the economic, security, political and other fields. Thirdly, the organizing and coordinating capability of international organizations in coping with the global crisis continues to decline. The COVID-19outbreak is the first major pandemic in the world since the founding of the United Nations. However, the United Nations and the WHO have failed to play the role of mobilizing cooperation among various countries, but instead become platforms or targets for confrontation and disagreement among different groups. Fourthly, after the end of the Cold War, the phenomenon of the West-led world process headed by the United States has further changed, and the trend of world power polarization has become more and more obvious. The runaway pandemic outbreak in the United States and Europe has eclipsed its so-called "model" aura, and the impact of the pandemic on the Western economy and society has further weakened its comprehensive competitiveness.

The biggest change in the world catalyzed by the pandemic is the growing confrontation between China and the United States and these two major powers have become the biggest variable in the world situation. If the previous confrontation between Russia and the United States was mainly concentrated in the field of geopolitics and international security, then the confrontation between China and the United States also involves the uncertainty of world economic development prospects, as well as the confrontation of world politics and ideology. There will be two competing political and economic models in the world: one is liberalism represented by the West, and the other is nationalism represented by China. The growing conflicts between China and the United States will have a huge impact on the entire international relations system and the political process of various countries.

II. Russia's foreign strategic considerations

Based on the above views on the world situation, Russia believes that its foreign strategic planning should adhere to the following points.

First, the confrontation between China and the United States is Russia's biggest strategic opportunity since 2008. This situation not only eases the pressure from the West to a certain extent, but also makes Russia's strategic planning more unprecedentedly possible than ever. Both China and the United States hope to get Russia's help, and are drawing in Russia, which further highlight Russia's international status and make Russia the most important weight on the international strategic pattern and the confrontation balance between the two sides. That is to say, Russia can use political, diplomatic, economic and other leverage to shape a balanced pattern in line with its own interests. Meanwhile, Russia is also aware that if China and the United States go to the extreme of military conflict or rupture of diplomatic relations, which will be very dangerous, and many follow-up problems are unpredictable. It is not necessarily beneficial for Russia to see complete runaway of such major power relations.

Second, unlike in the Cold War, the confrontation between China and the United States has the non-bloc characteristics of non-collectivization, and many countries avoid taking sides. This creates an opportunity for Russia to strive for more partners. On the one hand, Russia can play the role of a third party to provide new choices and new partnership for countries in the regions and domains where China and the United States contend with each other. On the other hand, Russia has the opportunity to intervene and expand its influence in the regions and domains where China and the United States can hardly attend to or squeeze each other. For example, Russia's hard-won position in the Middle East is expected to be consolidated, and its relations with many countries in the region can be further improved. Under the background that the United States is constantly suppressing China's economy and technology, Russia should try to open its own market for technology and products, and strive to gradually occupy some world markets that were difficult for it to enter in the past. On some controversial and sensitive issues, Russia could continue to intervene through bilateral cooperation, which can not only expand cooperation with countries in the region, but also create conditions for future participation in the settlement of issues. India is still Russia's traditional partner in geopolitics. In order to prevent India from completely siding with the United States, Russia could increase cooperation with India. To develop India’s emerging market, Russia has more opportunities, especially in the context of India's exclusion of China. Although some cooperation in military technology may stimulate India's ambitions, yet the traditional Russia-India relations and Russia's influence on India still enable Russia to control the situation. Meantime, the assistance to India also helps to balance China's pressure on India and prevent the failed India from turning to the United States for reliance.

Third, the novel coronavirus outbreak further demonstrates the reliance of the CIS countries on Russia, and the Sino-U.S. confrontation provides an opportunity for Russia to consolidate its control over the region. On the one hand, the United States is unable to intervene more in the regional affairs in recent years, and the problems faced by China's economy make it reduce its investment in this region. On the other hand, if these countries want to avoid retaliation from the United States for deeper cooperation with China, or reduce the pressure from the United States, then Russia is undoubtedly the most appropriate choice for these countries. Russia could take advantage of this opportunity to further strengthen and improve the process of integration with these countries.

Fourth, under the circumstance of confrontation between China and the United States, China needs more support and help from Russia, which is very much conducive to consolidating Sino-Russian strategic coordination and promoting Russia's international strategic planning. After the implementation of de-Sinicization in the West, China's industrial development, capacity transfer including the restructuring of industrial chain and supply chain may have to focus on the Eurasian region, which will provide new opportunities for strengthening Sino-Russian economic cooperation. Many of China's previous policies toward the West may also be gradually revised, and the industry standards and development direction in the fields of education, science and technology, industry and medicine may gradually move closer to Russia with the deepening of Sino-Russian cooperation.

III. China's foreign strategy-planing

Currently, the international architecture has entered a period of more profound changes, so various countries are thinking about how to shape their own favorable international environment in the process of changes, and will implement a series of new policies. For the first time, China has become the largest variable in the international process, which not only shows that China's influence, national strength and international standing are improved unprecedentedly, but also catalyzes more stringent requirements for China's diplomatic strategy. In this situation, China should strive to grasp the following points.

First, while adhering to our own interests and principles, we should firmly adhere to the strategic direction and strategic planning. It is particularly important to maintain strategic focus at a time of dramatic turbulence and changes. We should still adhere to a series of important principles repeatedly emphasized by the CPC Central Committee since the 18th CPC National Congress, i.e., diplomacy serves domestic construction, serves the two Centennial goals, and coordinates the domestic and international situations.

Second, fully recognizing the arduous and long-term nature of the Sino-U.S. strategic game-play. We should see that the U.S. containment policy towards China has a long-term goal and plan, and its core is to try to reproduce the Cold War outcome and defeat its opponents in a long marathon. This requires China to establish the idea of "protracted warfare", not to fight for the gains by a single act in a short period, and to take as its main struggle strategies strengthening its abilities in all aspects, enhancing its resilience in high-intensity confrontation, strengthening itself and wearing down its opponents in long-term competition. In the face of the U.S. fierce pressure, the traditional cultural thought of "overcoming hardness with softness" is also a means to win.

Third, in the course of struggles between China and the United States, the basic policy of the vast majority of countries is to avoid taking sides, which makes it possible for China to continue its cooperation with various countries in the world. China should adhere to the principles of peace, development and cooperation, and always take cooperation, not anti-America, as the baseline for its developing relations with other countries. More partners and more cooperation is a sharp weapon to hedge against the U.S. attempt to form blocs. Even regarding diplomacy with some Western countries, it is advisable not to draw a line with their attitude towards China or whether they cooperate with the U.S. policy of curbing China in some areas, but to insist on cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas.

Fourth, Russia is an important strategic partner of China, China-Russia relationship is an important starting point for China to plan major country relations and promote the reform of the international governance system, and it is still the direction for China to vigorously continue to deepen and broaden bilateral cooperation in various fields. Meanwhile, we should put Sino-Russian relations in the overall diplomatic architecture and make plans. The less crumpled the China's diplomatic space is, the smoother its partnership and cooperation will be, the more active China will become in its relations with Russia, and the more focused strategic cooperation between the two countries will be carried out by China.