US Life Expectancy Drops Dramatically Due to COVID-19 美國人預期壽命因新冠疫情大減

蕾切爾·雷特納文 李怡瑩譯

U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year—the largest decline in decades—as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19， according to estimates from a new study.

The study researchers project that， due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the average U.S. life expectancy in 2020 will drop by 1.13 years， bringing it to 77.48 years， according to the study， published Thursday （Jan. 14） in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Thats the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years， and it would bring the countrys life expectancy down its lowest level since 2003， the researchers said.

Life expectancy in the U.S. rarely declines， and when it does， it makes headlines. Most recently， U.S. life expectancy declined by 0.1 years in 2015， 2016 and 2017—a trend that was attributed to rises in “deaths of despair，” including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.

Whats more， the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among Black and Latino communities， which have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Overall， nearly 400，000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.， according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.

The study projected life expectancy for Black people will drop by 2.1 years， to 72.78 years， and life expectancy for Latino people will drop by 3.05 years， to 78.77 years. In contrast， the life expectancy for white people is projected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire nation， as well as the consequences for marginalized groups，” study co-author Theresa Andrasfay， a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California， said in a statement. “The COVID-19 pandemics disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts， in addition to receiving poorer health care， leading to more infections and worse outcomes.”

The researchers estimated U.S. life expectancy at birth using four scenarios—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic didnt happen， and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations was in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups，” study co-author Noreen Goldman， a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University， said in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves to be at high risk.”

Its important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they were to experience the death rates seen in a given period （in this case， in 2020）， the authors said.

Although COVID-19 vaccines may significantly reduce transmission this year， the researchers dont anticipate life expectancy to immediately bounce back in 2021.

“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful， the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic，” Andrasfay said. “We expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021.”

一項新的研究估計，由于新型冠狀病毒造成人員大量死亡，美國的預期壽命最近下降了一歲多，這是幾十年來最大的一次降幅。

根據(jù)1月14日發(fā)表在《美國科學院院報》上的研究，研究人員預測，由于新型冠狀病毒肺炎大流行，2020年美國平均預期壽命下降1.13歲，降至77.48歲。研究人員表示這是至少40年來預期壽命降幅最大的一年，將會使美國的預期壽命降低至2003年以來的最低水平。

美國的預期壽命幾乎不下降，一旦下降就登上了頭條新聞。近幾年，美國的預期壽命在2015年、2016年和2017年都下降了0.1歲——這一趨勢歸因于“絕望死亡”的上升，其中包括吸毒過量與自殺。新的預估數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新冠肺炎導致的下降幅度比這大10倍。

此外，這項研究顯示，2020年，黑人與拉美裔人群體受疫情影響尤為嚴重，其預期壽命下降幅度更大。總的來說，根據(jù)約翰霍普金斯大學病毒儀表盤的數(shù)據(jù)，美國共有近40萬人死于新冠肺炎。

研究預測黑人的預期壽命將會減少2.1歲，降至72.78歲，拉美裔人的預期壽命將會減少3.05歲，降至78.77歲。相比之下，白人的預期壽命將會減少0.68歲，降至77.84歲。

“我們的研究分析了超常死亡人數(shù)對整個國家預期壽命的影響，以及給邊緣群體帶來的后果。”研究報告合著者、南加州大學博士后特蕾莎·安德拉斯法伊在一份聲明中說道，“新冠疫情對黑人與拉美裔美國人預期壽命的影響與其人口占比不相稱，可能是因為這兩類人群的工作場所或者幾代同堂的生活方式使其暴露在更大風險中，外加醫(yī)療條件更差，導致感染病例更多，后果更為嚴重。”

研究人員使用四種情景估算了美國人出生時預期壽命——一種情景是新冠肺炎大流行沒有發(fā)生，另外三種情景使用了健康指標和評估研究所對2020年新冠肺炎死亡率的預測。

對于黑人與拉美裔人來說，預期壽命的大幅度減少某種程度上是由于“在這些群體中年輕人死亡比例過高”，該研究報告的合著者、普林斯頓大學人口學和公共事務教授諾琳·戈德曼在一份聲明中說，“這些發(fā)現(xiàn)強調(diào)了保護措施和計劃的必要性，以減少年輕人群中潛在的病毒接觸，這些年輕人可能并不覺得自身處在高風險之中。”

研究報告作者稱，需要注意的是，出生時預期壽命是人口在特定時期（本文為2020年）的死亡率水平下可能存活的年數(shù)。

盡管今年新冠疫苗可能大幅降低病毒的傳播，但是研究人員認為預期壽命不會在2021年迅速反彈。

安德拉斯法伊說：“盡管我們有望得到有效的疫苗，但當下美國每日因新冠病毒而死去的人數(shù)比以往任何時候都多。”他還補充道：“我們預計新冠肺炎對預期壽命的影響在2021年仍會持續(xù)。”