Russia and the West Relations

Pang Dapeng

On February 24th， 2022， Russia started to launch a special military operation on Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted. The Ukraine crisis is not the problem of one single country， but the result of the evolving fundamental contradiction of the post-Cold War world. The basic state policy of Russia is to safeguard its sphere of influence in the former Soviet region and realize reintegration of the Commonwealth of Independence States （CIS）， especially the three Slavic states of Russia， Ukraine and Belarus. The strategy of the U.S.-led West， on the other hand， is to maintain the status quo after the collapse of the Soviet Union and to infiltrate into former Soviet states， even supporting countries like Ukraine that are against Russia， in a bid to dismember the CIS and keep Russian influence within its borders. The problem between Russia and the West in the former Soviet region is structural and irreconcilable. President Putins special military operation， which sent Russian troops to Ukraine， has had a profound impact on the international pattern and world order.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict： A Point of No Return

Rome wasnt built in a day. Although a quarter of a century has passed since the fall of the Soviet Union， most people in Russia still feel frustrated and are reluctant to accept reality. President Putin is most bitter about it， having said that the dissolution of the Soviet Union is the “biggest geopolitical disaster in the 20th century”， an event that had the most impact on his life. The elites in Russia also hope that under strongman Putin， the former Soviet region could realign and bring the glorious days back.

The crux of the Ukraine problem or the Russia-Ukraine relationship is the relations between Russia and the West. The “color revolution” in Ukraine in 2003 saw the pro-Russia government replaced by a Pro-West one， which in the eyes of Russia amounted to geopolitical and ideological encirclement of Russia by the West. As a result， to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO became part of Russias foreign strategy. Ukraine is situated along a new geopolitical fault line to the West and Southwest of Russia， which runs from the Baltic States in the North to Central Europe， the Balkans， and to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Ukraine is thus the storm eye of a geopolitical power struggle.

On February 1st， 2022， Putin stated that Ukraine is just a chess piece for the U.S. to contain Russia and that the security of Ukraine is not something that the U.S. cares about. For Russia， there are mainly two reasons behind the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. One is that NATO has already taken Ukraine as an enhanced partner， with the U.S. markedly increasing its military cooperation with Ukraine， helping it to notably improve its military capabilities， which Russia believes threatens its national security. The other reason is that Ukraine has refused to implement the Minsk Agreement. As a result， the Minsk Process， which aims at political settlement of the issues concerning the eastern part of Ukraine， has become hard to implement， undermining the foundation for dialogues between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict reflects the changes in the international strategic pattern. From the perspective of the international situation， Russia has tried to grasp the crucial period when the power center of the world is shifting from the West to the East so as to seek maximum interests. It is the belief of Russian leaders and analysts that the international situation and balance of power is seeing profound changes that favor Russia： the U.S. decline is inevitable; Europe will completely lose its status of center of the world; and China will become a super power that will surely come into conflict with the U.S.. All these changes， they believed， would reduce possible external resistance to Russias special military operation in Ukraine.

Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict， there was a strong momentum in the Russian efforts at CIS integration. Russia had frustrated the Western attempts to topple the Lukashenko government and pressed ahead with the Russia-Belarus Alliance. It had been deeply involved in the Kazakhstan situation and maintained stability in Central Asia. On the Ukraine issue， it had been assertive and clearly marked the red line for its national security. The U.S.， on its part， had shifted its strategic focus from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region and shown vulnerabilities in Afghanistan. Against the backdrop of more substantial confrontation between China and the U.S.， Russia has taken a purposely aggressive and assertive strategy to maximize its interests in Eurasia.

Once the Russia-Ukraine conflict is over， a Russia with reduced power would lead to restructuring and regrouping of the regional order on the Eurasian continent. The economic and military power of Russia has been diminished because of the conflict， hence its reduced power of control in its neighborhood. President Tokayev of Kazakhstan has declared its New Kazakhstan development strategy， with unprecedented measures to realize political modernization of the country. Armenia， a military ally for Russia of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization， has voiced its willingness to develop sound relations with Türkiye. The Transcaucasian state of Moldova has even raised the possibility of solving the issue of Transdniestr. These developments would have been unthinkable before the conflict.

As a matter of fact， after the disintegration of the Soviet Union， due to the lack of appeal of the Russian development model， which falls short of galvanizing neighboring countries as an economic magnet， countries in the CIS region have accelerated their parting of company in terms of geopolitical security. The trend has become all the more obvious after the conflict. By far the only country that clearly supports President Putins operation and is deeply tied with Russia is Belarus. In a turbulent period with Russian power sliding， relevant countries might choose new foreign strategies. The prospect of fluidity or even regrouping of the regional order of Eurasia is inevitable.

Irreconcilable Problems Between Russia and the West

In Russias eyes， the Ukraine crisis means that the strategic separation between Russia and the West is irreversible. Russia faces a structural dilemma in handling its relations with the U.S.. On the one hand， the rejuvenation of Russia is inseparable from the reintegration of the CIS. According to Vladislav Surkov， a trusted advisor for President Putin， no matter what kind of development stage Russia is at， to maintain a safe neighborhood always marks its national character. On the other hand， any Russian effort at integration would be regarded by the U.S. and NATO as signs of the revival of its empire awareness. The U.S. and NATO always accuse Russia of its policy measures in the CIS region under the pretext of democracy and human rights. They accuse Russia of being expansionist and aggressive， regarding it as the major threat to European security. The Russia-U.S. relationship can be generalized as estranged political relations and military confrontation.

Russia faces the dual tension of development and security in its relations with Europe when it comes to the issue of Ukraine. In terms of development， the scope of Russia-Europe relations is not confined to the general diplomatic aspects of political mutual trust， economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges， but more importantly， Russias national identity and development path. The choice of development path is a long-standing question in Russia， not only a core question for the ruling elites after the collapse of the Soviet Union， but also an issue that runs through the entire Russian history. Standing at the crossroads of the East and the West， Russia always faces the choice of integrating into Europe and the Western civilization or going along a path of development with unique national characteristics. Integrating into Europe has always been a dream of Russia. In todays world， to answer this question， Russia has to first of all properly handle its relations with Europe. Russia does not want to see deteriorating relations with Europe because of the Ukraine crisis.

In terms of security， Russia has two trump cards in dealing with its relations with Europe： to firmly control Europe in energy security and to intimidate Europe in military security. On the issue of Ukraine， Russia is good at driving wedges in the Western camp using the differences between the U.S. and the EU， thus achieving the goal of alleviating Russia-Europe relations and reducing the pressure of U.S.-Russia relations. On January 19th， 2022， French President Macron called for a new security and stability order between the EU and Russia， and for independent dialogues between the EU and Russia， which was a deep contrast to the transatlantic solidarity advocated by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. The estrangement between Germany and the U.S. also reflects a deep transformation in their relationship， which started from the Iraq war and was aggravated during the Trump administration.

Looking back at the 30 years of Russia-West relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union， different perceptions on Russias paths to strength have made the problems between Russia and the U.S. irreconcilable. The Ukraine crisis was actually an eruption of all the structural problems between Russia and the U.S.. Such fundamental differences take the forms of ideological conflicts， but in essence focus on geopolitical contention in the CIS region. In 2021， President Putin put forward the concept of reasonable conservatism at the Valdai Conference. He also raised the concept of cultural sovereignty in the National Security Strategy. The purpose of these is to highlight the historical traditions and political cultures from the angle of state governance， thus laying a perceptional foundation for Russias foreign and domestic policies and gaining initiatives in its relations with the U.S..

After the eruption of the Russia-Ukraine conflict， the geopolitical environment of Russia has gravely worsened. The Western countries have become more united than ever， and NATO rapidly expanded. The U.S. and its allies have demonstrated great political cohesion and unity， changing the past impression of divisions within the transatlantic alliance. The soft and hard power of Western countries have been brought into display， with greater appeal to their own peoples and more influence over small and medium-sized countries and countries in general. Shocked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict， European integration has expanded to every aspect of political， military， security and foreign policy integration of EU member states. NATO has increasingly become an ever-expanding and aggressive international military group. The coordination between NATO and the EU has been greatly elevated. Despite the differences between the U.S. and the EU on imposing energy sanctions on Russia， they have maintained common positions on substantial questions such as European security.

Deep Hostilities Between Russia and NATO

On December 17th， 2021， the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the drafts of the Russia-U.S. Security Assurance Treaty and the Agreement on Security Safeguards Measures between Russia and NATO Members. The documents mainly contain the following points on Russia-NATO relations： First， NATO will stop its eastward expansion and Ukraine will not join NATO. Second， the two sides shall not deploy short-to-medium range missiles in territories within striking distance of each other. Third， military deployments of the two sides shall retreat to boundaries defined by the Founding Act on Mutual Relations， Cooperation and Security between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation. Russia and NATO members before May 27th， 1997 shall not increase the deployment of troops or equipment in any other European country. NATO believes that Russia has violated the MoU signed in Budapest in 1994 and failed to respect the boundary， independence and sovereignty of Ukraine according to relevant stipulations. As an exchange at that time， Ukraine gave up military weapons stored in its territory.

Since the end of the Cold War， the number of NATO has expanded from 16 to 30. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated his belief that NATO is attempting to establish a global alliance centered on the West that encompasses almost all the functions of the UN. NATO has always been contemplating whether to continue its expansion to include Ukraine. NATO has tailor-made a partnership framework for Ukraine， using the NATO-Ukraine Committee to discuss bilateral security policy. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg clearly stated that NATO would not give in on the acceptance of new members and that Russia does not hold a veto on whether Ukraine can join NATO. On July 4th， 2022， Finland and Sweden completed final talks with NATO on their joining the NATO at the NATO headquarters in Brussels， formalizing their intention for NATO membership. For Russia， this means that the two sides have fundamental differences and that NATO is selective in interpreting indivisible security. For NATO， it only exists for its members and does not take into consideration the security interests of other countries in its activities.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only led to the near breaking point of relations between Russia and NATO， but will also accelerate arms race worldwide， bringing challenges to international security. Despite the livelihood problems it brings， the conflict has also provided strategic military opportunities for Europe. Europe has got rid of its passive position in the area of military security and is actively increasing defense expenditures to protect the eastern borders of NATO. The over 100 billion euros of military expenditure of Germany ushers in an era in which Europe will be a strategic participant of military and security strategies， which will be one of the most important geopolitical transformations brought by the conflict. The deterioration of relations between Russia and the West has aggravated the risks of geopolitical conflicts between major countries. Countries are gearing up to fend off potential damages to themselves. Terrorism and extremism are waiting for their chances. Japan is actively attempting to revise relevant laws to try to overcome the restraints for it to send troops overseas， which will bring grave challenges to Northeast Asia. Besides， the conflict has also had severe impact on the world economy， bringing socio-economic risks in many countries to unprecedented levels.

With further NATO expansion， the U.S.-led military group has expanded to the whole world. In international relations， countries are increasingly falling into confronting camps. For the U.S.， most countries in the world fall into three categories. The first is the so-called free world， whose members support sanctions on Russia in unison. The second is the countries of balance， which keep engagements with both the U.S. and China but maintain their independence and try to minimize the possibility of becoming the arena of major-country contention. The third is the space of contention， namely countries where the U.S. and China compete for economic， political， security and information influence such as Latin America and Africa. Based on such analysis， the strategic direction of American foreign policy is to preserve the free world， win over the countries of balance， and compete in the space of contention. Specifically speaking， the U.S. will rely more on the development of the North America Free Trade Area， with the U.S.-Canada-Mexico triangle being the foundation of American power. The U.S. will also pay more attention to building a transatlantic energy alliance to get rid of dependence on Russian energy. It will also pay more attention to the Indo-Pacific Strategy and continue to consolidate its foreign policy framework with countries such as India， Japan， the ROK， Australia， and New Zealand.

In the words of President Putin， Russia and Ukraine have historical consistency. To realize reintegration of the three Slavic countries of Russia， Belarus， and Ukraine is the biggest common element that unites various domestic political forces and the common wish of the Russian people. On the issue of Ukraine， President Putin has no room for compromise. Otherwise， he would face grave political problems in the country. It is because of the lack of a middle ground on this issue that Russia and the West have plunged into a structural dilemma. The Ukraine crisis is a decisive factor among the changes unseen in a century， which will fundamentally change contemporary international relations.

Pang Dapeng is Deputy Director-General and Research Fellow of the Institute of Russian， Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences