濟南：人口涌入的隱形強者，這座城果然值得老舍的愛

石登江

提到濟南，你可能想到老舍筆下千佛山、趵突泉的冬日；提到濟南，你可能想到瓊瑤劇里“大明湖畔的夏雨荷”，那段溫情故事的開端；提到濟南，你可能想到孔孟，想到齊魯，想到瑞蚨祥和不斷壯大的民族工業(yè)。但你可能沒有想到，濟南是首座全面放開落戶限制的副省級城市。

南方周末研究院近日發(fā)布的《57城市民引力榜2023》上，濟南成為領(lǐng)跑全國的隱形強者。兩項指標將濟南推向榜首：十年常住人口增速和落戶自由指數(shù)。

這里有意外因素，2019年濟南因萊蕪劃入增加近百萬常住人口。不過即便剔除該因素，濟南也在前十之列。通過行政規(guī)劃調(diào)整擴張人口規(guī)模的，并非只有濟南——杭州、西安、成都、合肥、長春、昆明、金華等城市，均有此類情況。

上述榜單引入十年常住人口數(shù)據(jù)、落戶自由指數(shù)，更側(cè)重衡量一座城市對流動人口的友好度，以及人們在一座城市定居的難易程度。

2021年，國家衛(wèi)生健康委流動人口服務(wù)中心發(fā)布《中國城市流動人口社會融合評估報告》。這本267頁的報告顯示，濟南社會融合綜合排名第一。

濟南不是一座引人注目的城市，但是“多維”的濟南依舊值得關(guān)注。從老舍寫下《濟南的冬天》到如今，濟南正在迎來發(fā)展的春天。

濟南的冬天

濟南是一座什么樣的城市，似乎很難清晰地描述。

“它背靠省會的背景，占據(jù)了山東第二城市的交椅，但卻尷尬地活在人們懷疑的目光中。”有學(xué)者這樣形容濟南。

質(zhì)樸，親切的“質(zhì)樸感”可能是大多數(shù)人對濟南的印象。一座北方城市卻有著南方城市溫婉的氣質(zhì)。“孔孟之鄉(xiāng)”的文化底色，名泉之都的澄澈氣質(zhì)，古色古香的傳統(tǒng)建筑，尊師重教、內(nèi)斂沉穩(wěn)，傳統(tǒng)的中國形象完善地保存在這座城市。

質(zhì)樸，但是過于質(zhì)樸，是濟南倍受懷疑的原因。濟南的質(zhì)樸，最直觀的體現(xiàn)是，作為省會城市，濟南的學(xué)校、企業(yè)、醫(yī)院等機構(gòu)名稱大多用山東而非濟南冠名。

濟南43所本專科院校中，濟南冠名的本科院校只有濟南大學(xué)一所，專科院校也僅有4所。與之相比，在西安、武漢、成都等城市中，以城市冠名的高校，均在半數(shù)以上。此外，濟南的三甲醫(yī)院也多以山東而非濟南冠名。

一座質(zhì)樸的城市，首先將自己名字隱蔽在了更大格局之下。

質(zhì)樸，但是過于質(zhì)樸，使這座城市在發(fā)展中的腳步更穩(wěn)健。27座省會城市2022年經(jīng)濟首位度排名中，濟南排在最后。

“發(fā)揮省城優(yōu)勢，發(fā)展省會經(jīng)濟”在2008年被寫入濟南市政府工作報告中。

“地市合并”一般認為是強省會的重要方式，萊蕪正式納入濟南的管轄直至2019年才成為現(xiàn)實。在此之前，濟南的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不僅一直落后于青島，甚至GDP也曾落后于煙臺。

華東師范大學(xué)中國行政區(qū)劃研究院首席專家林拓，參與過此次行政區(qū)劃調(diào)整的論證。他指出，從國家戰(zhàn)略層面，濟南是京津冀和長三角之間唯一的省會城市，是兩個區(qū)域很重要的銜接點，從山東層面看，濟南位于偏西北，其對東南區(qū)域的帶動能力不足。而萊蕪恰好位于中間，調(diào)整以后，省會的輻射作用可以大幅提升。

2023年，淄博出圈，“五一”期間住宿預(yù)訂量較2019年上漲865%。與此同時，山東省內(nèi)的“網(wǎng)紅城市”迎來旅游狂歡。濰坊游客從2019年的183.61萬人提高至257.14萬人，增長40%；煙臺游客達到188.23萬人次，與2019年同期相比增長211%。

相比之下，濟南的增勢稍有遜色。濟南的22家旅游景區(qū)共接待262.6萬人次，相較于2019年納入監(jiān)測的17家景區(qū)，游客增速僅為23.7%。

濟南很快做出了調(diào)整。攜程數(shù)據(jù)顯示，濟南是2023年十一假期十大周邊熱門目的地城市之一，旅游訂單量同比2022年增長295%，其中跨省訂單占比近五成，跨省游訂單量同比增長338%。

質(zhì)樸，但是過于質(zhì)樸，使?jié)线@座城市還未充分發(fā)揮自身的潛力。

濟南并不缺乏旅游資源，而是缺乏包裝和隆重推出。鵲華橋、大明湖、千佛山、歷下亭、鐵公祠、“四大名泉”，還有“美人絕調(diào)”的明湖居，無一不是濟南的歷史文化遺產(chǎn)。

濟南是“孔孟文化”保存最為完善的地方，到了濟南，保安大叔都會喊你一聲“老師兒”。不僅如此，濟南還出了李清照和辛棄疾，一巾幗一須眉，一婉約一豪放，兩個頂級詞人。李清照紀念堂在濟南城西趵突泉公園內(nèi)，辛稼軒紀念祠則在大明湖南岸偏西側(cè)。

“爭渡，爭渡，驚起一灘鷗鷺。”濟南何時才能在爭渡中，再度驚起國人內(nèi)心的波瀾？2023年3月，濟南大明湖畔的超然樓亮燈瞬間掀起熱論，引來眾多游客拍照打卡。人們期待著濟南更多的瞬間與記憶點。

“一個老城，有山有水，全在天底下曬著陽光，暖和安適地睡著，只等春風(fēng)來把它們喚醒，這是不是個理想的境界？”這是老舍寫在《濟南的冬天》中的一段話。

我們期待著的，濟南發(fā)展的春天是否已經(jīng)到來？

濟南的春天

2024年年初，濟南經(jīng)濟成績單公布。2023年濟南市GDP為12757.4億元，比上年增長6.1%，高于5.2%的全國平均增速。

濟南經(jīng)濟的高速增長，與工業(yè)發(fā)展息息相關(guān)。2023年，濟南制造業(yè)增加值增長13.8%。其中，汽車制造業(yè)同比增長133.3%；光伏電池、集成電路圓片產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量，分別增長529.8%、111.2%。

令人驚喜的不僅是濟南制造業(yè)的高速發(fā)展，更在“空天經(jīng)濟”發(fā)展的先機。2023年9月，國內(nèi)首所空天信息大學(xué)獲批，正式在濟南落地籌建。該校的建設(shè)還將帶動11家國家重點實驗室和3家省實驗室的發(fā)展。

Winter in Jinan

What kind of city is Jinan？ Most people would say it has a friendly rustic look.

The most obvious evidence of this is that， as the capital of Shandong province， most of the names of schools， companies， hospitals and other organizations in Jinan start with Shandong rather than Jinan.

The simplicity and plainness in the city character makes Jinan was rather modest for development.

"Releasing the advantages and developing economy of the provincial city" was included in the Jinan Municipal Government Work Report 2008. In 2019， Laiwu became a district of Jinan. According to Lin Tuo， chief expert of Research Center for China Administrative Division at East China Normal University， From a national strategic perspective， Jinan is the only provincial capital between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta， and is a very important link between the two regions. From Shandongs point of view， Jinan is in the northwest and its radiation capacity to the south-east is insufficient. Since Laiwu is centrally located， the provincial capitals radiation role can be greatly improved after adjustment.

The simplicity and plainness in the city character has restrained Jinan to realize its full potential.

Not lacking tourism resources， Jinan should enhance branding and popularization. With a rich historical and cultural heritage， Jinan is famous for its two iconic local poets， Li Qingzhao and Xin Qiji. The lighting moment of Chaoran Pavilion， a landmark of Daming Lake Park in Jinan， went viral on the internet， attracting a large number of visitors to see it on the spot and take photos of the moment of beauty. People are hoping for more surprises in Jinan.

“An ancient town， with mountains and lakes， dozing in the sunlight， warm and comfortable， waiting for the spring breezes to blow it awake. Doesnt that sound idyllic.” Lao She said in “Winter in Jinan”. We wonder if the spring of development has arrived in Jinan？

Spring in Jinan

The gross domestic product （GDP） of Jinan totaled 1，275.74 billion yuan in 2023， up 6.1 per cent year on year， higher than the national average growth rate of 5.2 per cent.

Jinans rapid economic growth has been closely linked to industrial development. The manufacturing value added grew by 13.8 per cent in 2023， with the aerospace industry being a leading contributor. In September 2023， the Aerospace Information University， the first of its kind in China， was officially approved and began construction in Jinan， which is conducive to the development of 11 national key laboratories and 3 provincial laboratories.

Jinan reached a high point on March 8， 2024 when the Jinan Urban Circle Development Plan （2024-2030） was announced. The plan clearly proposed that its vital to improve the innovation， economic， service， social and environmental functions of the central city of Jinan， and to promote the overall improvement of regional economic efficiency.

It was followed by some news that was even more exciting to us. On December 8， 2023， the entire JinanZhengzhou high-speed railway， a key section to the west of Jinans high-speed railway network in a shape of Mi character， was inaugurated.

The industry is a magnet for talent. In 2023， 160，000 new young talents were added to Jinan， and the total number of talents exceeded 2.78 million， accounting for 29.5% of the resident population. In 2023， there were 691，100 full-time students in Jinan.

Jinan was higher than most provincial capitals such as Zhengzhou， Xian and Nanchang in terms of per capita disposable income in 2022. The price-to-income ratio and rent-to-income ratio in the 2023 List of Comfortable Life in 57 Cities were 13.9 and 0.28 respectively， which was not only much lower than that of firsttier cities， but also lower than that of provincial capitals such as Xian， Nanjing and Zhengzhou. Clearly， Jinan is an inexpensive city for migrants.

Has spring arrived in Jinan？ The answer is obvious from the figures in economic development and population growth. However， Jinan never develops only in the spring， as it also produces fruitful results in the summer and autumn.