Global Economic Challenges of Aging老齡化的全球經濟挑戰

H.S. 博爾吉/文　薛洪君/譯

The social and economic implications1 of an aging population are becoming increasingly apparent in many industrialized nations around the globe. With populations in places such as North America， Western Europe， and Japan aging more rapidly than ever before， policymakers are confronted with several interrelated issues， including a decline in the working-age population， increased health care costs， unsustainable pension commitments2， and changing demand drivers within the economy. These issues could significantly undermine3 the high living standard enjoyed in many advanced economies.

人口老齡化帶來的社會與經濟影響在全球多個工業化國家正日漸顯露。隨著北美、西歐和日本等地人口老齡化速度空前加快，決策者們面臨一些相互關聯的問題，包括勞動年齡人口減少、醫療保健成本增加、養老金投入難以為繼和經濟內需拉動因素改變等。這些問題或將嚴重影響許多發達經濟體一貫享受的高水準生活。

Advanced industrialized societies are growing older

發達工業社會日漸衰老

In 2020， there were 727 million people aged 65 or older. This number is expected to more than double by 2050.

2020年，其65歲及以上人口數量為7.27億。預期到2050年，這一數字將會翻一番還多。

The decline in the working-age population

勞動年齡人口減少

A rapidly aging population means there are fewer working-age people in the economy. This leads to a supply shortage of qualified workers， making it more difficult for businesses to fill in-demand roles. An economy that cannot fill in-demand occupations4 faces adverse consequences， including declining productivity， higher labor costs， delayed business expansion， and reduced international competitiveness. In some instances， a supply shortage may push up wages， thereby causing wage inflation and creating a vicious cycle of price/wage spiral5.

人口快速老齡化，意味著經濟結構中的勞動適齡人口變少。這勢必造成合格勞動者的數量短缺，使企業更難填補空缺崗位。一個經濟體不能補足職位空缺，無疑會面臨諸多不良后果，包括生產率下降、勞動力成本上升、業務擴張受阻和國際競爭力減退等等。某些情況下，人力供應短缺還會推動工資水平上漲，引發工資虛高，造成物價/工資持續飆升的惡性循環。

To compensate6， many countries look to immigration to keep their labor forces well supplied. While countries such as Australia， Canada， and the United Kingdom are attracting more highly skilled immigrants， integrating them into the workforce can be a challenge because domestic employers may not recognize immigrant credentials and work experience， especially if they were obtained in countries outside of North America， Western Europe， and Australia.

作為補救措施，一些國家考慮通過移民來維系勞動力無虞供應。像澳大利亞、加拿大和英國等幾個國家就在吸攬高技術移民，不過要讓他們融入勞動力隊伍也許是個難題，因為國內雇主未必認可移民的學歷和工作經驗，尤其不認可在北美、西歐和澳大利亞之外取得的學歷和工作經驗。

Increase in health care costs

醫療保健支出增加

Given that demand for healthcare rises with age， countries with rapidly aging populations must allocate more money and resources to their health care systems. Healthcare spending as a share of gross domestic product （GDP） is already high in most advanced economies; one challenge that advanced economies face is to ensure that when they increase spending， healthcare outcomes actually improve.

鑒于醫療保健需求隨年歲的增長而增長，人口快速老齡化國家必須為本國醫保體系配置更多資金和資源。對大部分發達經濟體來說，醫保開支在國內生產總值中的占比已經偏高；當下發達經濟體面臨的一項挑戰便是，確保醫保支出的增加真正能讓醫保成果出現提升。

Additionally， the healthcare sector in many advanced economies faces similar issues， including labor and skills shortages and increased demand for at-home care. All of these cost escalators7 can make it more difficult for existing systems to handle the increased prevalence of chronic diseases， while also addressing the needs of large and growing populations of older adults.

另外，很多發達經濟體內的醫保行業也遭逢大致同樣的問題，包括勞動力及技術人員短缺、居家護理的需求趨熱等。這些方向的支出均有增無減，恐怕會讓現行體系處理慢性病普發多發的局面時愈發捉襟見肘，且不說還要應付數量龐大且仍不斷壯大的老年人群體的需求。

Increase in dependency ratio

撫養系數不斷上升

Countries with large populations of older adults depend on smaller pools of workers from which to collect taxes to pay for higher health costs， pension benefits， and other publicly funded programs. This is becoming more common in advanced economies where retirees live on fixed incomes with much smaller tax brackets8 than workers. The combination of lower tax revenue and higher spending commitments on health care， pensions， and other benefits is a major concern for advanced industrialized nations.

擁有大量老年人口的國家勞動力人數較少，國家通過向他們征稅來支付更高的醫療保健開支、養老金和其他公共開支項目。這一現象目前在發達經濟體中越發稀松平常，那里的退休人員靠固定養老金生活，其稅檔比勞動人口低不少。較低的稅款收入加上走高的醫療保健、養老金及其他必須投入的福利性開支，是發達工業國家的一個主要問題。

Changes to the economy

經濟生活發生改變

An economy with a significant share of older adults and retirees has different demand drivers than an economy with a higher birth rate and a larger working-age population. For example， rapidly aging populations tend to have greater demands for health care services and retirement homes. Although this is not necessarily negative， economies may face challenges transitioning to markets that are increasingly driven by goods and services linked to older people. As advanced economies become older over the next 15 years， it remains to be seen whether immigration will fill the voids in sectors left by aging populations or whether the broader economies will have to adjust to changing demographics9.

老年人與退休者占比很大的經濟體，與生育率較高、擁有較多勞動適齡人口的經濟體相比，有著不同的需求驅動因素。例如，快速老齡化人口往往對醫療保健服務和養老院有更多需求。雖然這未必一定是壞事，但經濟體卻要面臨市場轉型的挑戰，即市場越來越受與老年人相關商品與服務的驅動。隨著發達經濟體在未來15年間更趨老齡化，靠移民能否填補人口老齡化留出的行業空白，更廣泛的經濟會否被迫調整以適應人口特征的變化，這一切都尚待觀察。

Which countries have the largest percentage of older adults？

哪國老年人比例最高？

Japan is the country with the highest proportion of its population composed of older adults， with 28.2% of people being 65 or older. Other countries with large percentages of older adults include Italy， with 22.8% of its population 65 or older， and Finland， with 21.9%.

老年人在總人口中占比最高的國家是日本，65歲及以上人口占到28.2%。其他老年人占比很高的國家有意大利，65歲及以上人數占人口的22.8%；以及芬蘭，占比為21.9%。

What is the youngest population in the world？

世界人口最年輕的地方在哪？

The worlds youngest countries are mostly in Africa， with Niger having the lowest median age of just 15.2 years. Having a young population can be both an opportunity and challenge for nations.

世界上人口最年輕的國度大多在非洲，其中以尼日爾的中位數年齡最低，只有15.2歲。擁有年輕的人口對一個國家來說可謂機會與挑戰并存。

How can countries deal with aging popu-lations？

各國該如何處理人口老齡化問題？

Countries are currently exploring a number of different policies to adapt to economic shifts due to aging populations. A common proposal set forth includes delaying the age of retirement， which effectively lengthens the amount of time that individuals spend working. Other possibilities include decreasing social security benefits， in cases where there are potential deficits， and increase taxes to pay for them.

各國正在探索各式各樣的政策以適應人口老齡化帶來的經濟改變。一項眾所周知的方案當屬延遲退休年齡，這可以有效延長個人投入勞動的時間。其他可能途徑包括，出現赤字苗頭時削減社會保障性福利，并增加稅收來支付福利。

The bottom line10

最重要的事實

Many industrialized nations are grappling11 with aging populations， which often correspond with a decline in working-age adults and a rise in health care costs. These issues can cause economic strains， particularly when it means that a smaller proportion of the total population has to bear significant social safety net costs. Countries with aging economies are currently exploring a number of possible paths to adapt to these and other economic shifts.

很多工業化國家正疲于應對人口老齡化問題，這一問題往往伴隨著適齡勞動人口減少與醫療保健支出上漲。這類難題會帶來經濟壓力，當總人口中占比較小的一部分人群要承擔大部分社保凈成本時，尤其如此。同屬老齡化經濟體的各國正在探索各種可能途徑，以適應上述及其他一些經濟改變。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎者）

1 implication含意。? 2 commitment必須做（或處理）的事情。? 3 undermine逐漸損害（或削弱）。

4 occupation職業，工作。? 5 spiral惡性螺旋上升（亦作vicious spiral）。? 6 compensate 補償；彌補。

7 escalator逐步上升的人（或事物）；使（某事物）上升的人（或工具）。? 8 bracket（年齡、收入等的）等級段，檔次。

9 demographics人口統計數據（如年齡、性別、家庭人數、家庭收入等）。

10 the bottom line底線；最重要的事實。? 11 grapple努力克服（或解決、完成、對付）。