Weather Determines Economic Outcomes天氣決定經濟形勢

Soon it will be even more important.

很快，天氣將變得更加重要。

“Now the rains had really come，” writes Chinua Achebe， in Things Fall Apart， a novel set in 19th-century Nigeria， “so heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now， just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry season， without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian economies of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel， the economic cycle and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right time， the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast， drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker—much like the modern-day central banker—may attempt to smooth out the business cycle， literally dampening things down when they get too hot. Ultimately， though， it is the power of nature that decides the outcome.

非洲作家欽努阿·阿契貝在其以19世紀尼日利亞為背景創作的小說《瓦解》中寫道：“現在雨真的來了，雨勢之大、之持久，連村里的雨師都不再聲稱能干預。現在他不能止雨，就像他不愿在旱季高峰期造雨一樣，否則自己的身體就會受到嚴重傷害。”在阿契貝小說中描繪的那種農業經濟中，經濟周期和天氣相互關聯。雨水適時到來，便五谷豐登，繁榮隨之而來。相比之下，干旱會帶來饑荒和死亡的風險。雨師——就像是現代的央行行長——可能會試圖平穩經濟周期，也就是，當經濟形勢過熱時給它降溫。然而，最終決定結果的是自然的力量。

Europe’s energy crisis has brought the return of weather-based economics. The crisis is a reminder that， for all their technological sophistication， even rich-world economies must rely on the munificence of nature. European economists， financiers and policymakers are watching forecasts closely： a balmy winter will bring relief， requiring less gas to be burned in order to keep houses warm. If temperatures are not too punishing， energy prices will fall and growth be given a boost. A frosty winter， on the other hand， will bring misery： pushing millions into poverty， increasing inflationary pressures and keeping industries shuttered.

歐洲的能源危機讓人們再度開始研究基于天氣的經濟狀況。這一危機提醒人們，發達國家盡管擁有先進的技術，但也必須依賴自然的慷慨。目前，歐洲的經濟學家、金融家和政策制定者們正在密切關注天氣預報：溫暖的冬天將緩解能源危機，為保持房屋溫暖而需要燃燒的天然氣會減少。如果氣溫不那么低，能源價格將下降，經濟增長也將得到推動。與之相反，嚴寒的冬天將會帶來苦難：無數人陷入貧困，通貨膨脹壓力增加，許多產業也將倒閉。

Fossil fuels originally promised to free economies from the vagaries of the seasons. Instead of relying on ambient solar power—captured in grain， preserved in livestock or photosynthesised into biomass and then consumed as firewood—humanity could burn coal， releasing the prehistoric solar power contained within. The use of fossil fuels allowed energy to be stored， transported and released exactly when required. They placed the power of the sun at the beck and call of mankind， rather than the other way around.

人們一開始認為，化石燃料肯定會將經濟從變化不定的季節中解放出來。人類可以燃燒煤炭，釋放其中所蘊含的史前太陽能，而非依賴于環境中的太陽能——后者有的被谷物獲取，有的保存在牲畜體內，還有的被光合作用轉化成生物質，然后作為木柴燃燒消耗。使用化石燃料可使能源完全按需儲存、運輸和釋放。它們將太陽的能量置于人類的管控之下，而不是太陽管控人類。

Ann Kussmaul， an economic historian， tracked the spread of the Industrial Revolution through England by assessing when regions moved beyond seasonal economics. Parish marriage certificates measured the point at which fossil fuels freed workers from the rhythms of nature and instead tied them to the factory whistle. Before industrialisation， marriages in low-lying areas would often be in winter after the harvest was taken; in hilly areas， they would be during summer， once the lambing season had come to an end. After industrialisation， such regional and seasonal marriage patterns disappeared， providing a clue as to which parts of England first adopted fossil-fuel-based production techniques.

經濟歷史學家安·庫斯莫爾通過評估各地區經濟何時擺脫季節性因素追蹤了工業革命在英格蘭的傳播情況。教區的結婚證記錄了化石燃料使工人擺脫自然節奏，轉而與工廠哨聲聯系在一起的時間。工業化前，在低洼地區，人們通常在作物收割后的冬季結婚；而在丘陵地區，人們會在產羔季節結束后的夏季結婚。工業化后，這種地區性和季節性的結婚模式消失了，這為了解英格蘭哪些地區最早采用基于化石燃料的生產技術提供了線索。

Hundreds of years later， seasonality is returning to Britain and other parts of Europe， as the continent weans itself from Russian gas. Part of the reason for this return is physical. Natural gas is much harder to transport and store than coal or liquid oil. In the past， Europe benefited from abundant piped gas provided by Russia， as well as the option of top-ups of liquefied natural gas shipped from abroad. Now supplies are tight and Europeans must mostly rely on the shipped stuff. The continent’s storage facilities are already more than 90% full， and filling the last bits of available space is expensive， since the contents must be kept under high pressure. Constrained supply means that changes in demand determine the price of energy—and the weather is the most uncertain determinant of demand.

數百年后，隨著歐洲逐漸擺脫對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴，季節性因素再次影響英國和歐洲其他地區。這種回歸的部分原因是物理上的。天然氣比煤炭或液體石油更難運輸和儲存。過去，歐洲受益于俄羅斯提供的豐富的管道天然氣，以及從國外運來作為補充選項的液化天然氣。現在能源供應緊張，歐洲人必須大多依賴從國外運來的液化天然氣。歐洲大陸的儲氣設施目前儲量已經超過90%，填滿最后一點可用空間成本高昂，因為液化天然氣必須在高壓條件下保存。供應受限意味著需求變化決定能源價格，而天氣是最不確定的需求決定因素。

Autumn spared Europe the worst： the continent enjoyed the hottest October on record. As a result， the price for a unit of gas on the Dutch title transfer facility， which provides the benchmark for the continent， fell to around €100 per megawatt hour， half the rate in September. Historically there has been a relatively linear relationship between gas demand and the temperature： the colder it gets， the more gas is needed. This year things are a little more complicated. Home-heating systems have been left dormant for longer than usual. Blanket sales are on the rise.

秋天，歐洲幸免于最糟糕的情況：該大陸經歷了有記錄以來最熱的10月。因此，在荷蘭天然氣交易中心（為歐洲天然氣交易確定基準價格），天然氣價格下跌至每兆瓦時約100歐元，是9月價格的一半。歷史上，天然氣需求與溫度之間存在著一種相對的線性關系：天氣越冷，天然氣需求量就越大。2022年的情況有些復雜。家庭供暖系統處于休眠狀態的時間比往年更長。毯子的銷量一直在增加。

The gas crisis is not the only reason for a greater focus on the weather. Renewables now supply much more energy to Europe than even a few years ago， leading to problems if the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine. Indeed， hydropower has also been an issue for Europe， after a hot summer dried out the reservoirs and rivers on which dams depend. Improving and investing in ways to store electricity， whether batteries， hydrogen or other techniques， could in future smooth out such variability. The continent nonetheless faces years， or even decades， of nervously watching the skies as it adjusts.

天然氣危機并非人們更加關注天氣的唯一原因。可再生能源現在為歐洲供應的能源比幾年前多得多，但如果不刮風或沒有陽光，就會出現問題。事實上，水力發電也是歐洲面臨的一個問題，因為炎熱的夏天使大壩所依賴的水庫與河流干涸。改善和投資存儲電力的方式，無論是電池、氫氣還是其他技術，將來都可以解決這種因變數而產生的問題。然而，在調整的同時，歐洲大陸仍然面臨數年甚至數十年緊張觀察天空的局面。

Yet in the absence of a transition to green forms of energy the weather would begin to play an even bigger role in economics. A warmer planet is already leading to more frequent and extreme events， such as Europe’s summer heatwaves or the devastating floods endured by Pakistan. These events amount to so-called real shocks to an economy： external changes that lower productive capacity， and so cause both higher inflation and unemployment.

但是，在沒有向綠色能源過渡的情況下，天氣將開始在經濟中扮演更加重要的角色。地球變暖已經在導致更頻繁和極端的事件發生，例如歐洲的夏季熱浪或巴基斯坦遭受的毀滅性洪災。這些事件對經濟造成了所謂的實質性沖擊，即外部變化降低了生產能力，因此導致通貨膨脹率和失業率雙雙上升。

This dual threat is harder for central bankers to deal with than downturns that arise from changes in business confidence or a financial crisis. Tighten policy too much in response and it will exacerbate the downturn; too little and inflation may get out of hand. According to analysis by the IMF of Pacific and Caribbean islands， natural-disaster-prone countries grow by around one percentage point less a year and have considerably higher debt stocks than those less at risk. Climate change will only exacerbate these differences. Thus a return to weather-dependent economics will leave some central bankers looking even more like rainmakers： attempting to perform the old rituals or demanding more sacrifices， without much capacity to affect the economic weather.

對于央行官員來說，這種雙重威脅比由商業信心變化或金融危機引起的經濟衰退更難處理。過于緊縮的政策將加劇經濟衰退，過于寬松的政策則可能導致通貨膨脹失控。根據國際貨幣基金組織對太平洋和加勒比海島國的分析，相比風險較小的國家，自然災害頻發的國家年增長率約低一個百分點，且債務存量高得多。氣候變化只會加劇這些差異。因此，重新研究基于天氣的經濟狀況將使一些央行官員看起來更像雨師：試圖舉行古老的儀式或要求更多的犧牲，但沒有多少能力影響受天氣左右的經濟形勢。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎者）