Will AI Change Hollywood Forever?人工智能會永久改變好萊塢嗎？

With the rise of AI-led services to write， voice and provide effects， industry experts express concern over the future.

隨著人工智能驅動的編劇、配音和特效服務的興起，業內專家對未來表示擔憂。

What will AI （artificial intelligence） do to Hollywood？ Who better to answer that question than ChatGPT， a thrilling but scary chatbot developed by OpenAI. When the Guardian asked it about AI’s potential impact on the film industry， it made the following points：

人工智能會對好萊塢產生怎樣的影響？沒有誰比OpenAI公司開發的令人既興奮又恐懼的聊天機器人ChatGPT更合適回答這個問題。當《衛報》就人工智能對電影行業的潛在影響詢問ChatGPT時，它提到如下幾點：

1. Scriptwriting： AI can be used to analyze existing screenplays and create new ones， potentially leading to more efficient and cost-effective1 screenwriting.

1. 編?。喝斯ぶ悄芸捎糜诜治霈F有的劇本并創作新劇本，因此編劇會更高效、更具成本經濟效益。

2. Pre-production： AI can be used to streamline the pre-production process， including casting， location scouting and storyboarding2.

2. 前期制作：人工智能可用于簡化前期制作流程，包括選角、選景和繪制情節串連圖板。

3. Special effects： AI can be used to create more realistic and immersive special effects， potentially reducing the need for practical effects and saving time and money in post-production.

3. 特效：人工智能可用于創建更逼真和身臨其境的特效，能減少對實景鏡頭的需求，節省后期制作時間和費用。

4. Audience analysis： AI can be used to analyze audience data and preferences， helping studios make more informed decisions about which films to greenlight and how to market them.

4. 觀眾分析：人工智能可用于分析觀眾數據和偏好，有助于制片廠做出更明智的決策，確定拍攝哪些影片以及如何進行營銷。

5. Distribution： AI can be used to personalize movie recommendations for viewers and optimize distribution strategies， potentially leading to higher ticket sales and revenue.

5. 發行：人工智能可用于個性化推薦影片給觀眾及優化發行策略，能提高票房并增加收益。

It was a reasonable answer that did not hint at HAL 90003-style malevolence4 or Terminator-like plans for world domination. But nor did it have much to say about how AI might be a disruptive force for actors （dead or alive）， audiences， screenwriters， the principle of intellectual property or the fundamental art of storytelling.

上述回答還算合理，因為并未暗示會出現HAL 9000式的惡煞或終結者式的稱霸世界圖謀。不過，對于人工智能有多大可能會成為顛覆性力量，沖擊演員（無論是否在世）、觀眾、編劇、知識產權準則或基本敘事技巧，ChatGPT也鮮有提及。

When the Guardian turned to human interviewees， they offered a more ambivalent5 set of predictions.

當《衛報》轉而詢問人類受訪者時，他們的預測則更為矛盾。

Ben Mankiewicz， a primetime6 host of Turner Classic Movies （TCM） and grandson of Herman Mankiewicz， who co-wrote the 1941 classic Citizen Kane， has just been experimenting with ChatGPT. “I signed up for a week and asked it to write a TCM introduction for Citizen Kane，” he says by phone from Los Angeles.

本·曼凱維奇是特納經典電影頻道黃金檔的主持人，也是1941年問世的經典影片《公民凱恩》的聯合編劇赫爾曼·曼凱維奇的孫子。他剛試用過ChatGPT。“我曾注冊使用一星期，要求它為特納經典電影頻道撰文介紹《公民凱恩》?！彼诼迳即壍碾娫捘穷^說。

But how does Mankiewicz， 55， feel about the idea of AI writing an entire film script？ “While it’s exciting， of course it’s disturbing. I find it very hard to believe that it’s ever going to get the humanity that makes a screenplay great.

但55歲的曼凱維奇對人工智能編寫一整部電影劇本有什么看法呢？“這固然令人興奮，卻也讓人不安。我很難相信人工智能會具有創作杰出劇本所需的人性特質。

“I’m worried but I don’t want to sound reactionary. It’s probably mostly useful if it gets a creative person who finds the blank page daunting to think， ‘Oh， all right， here’s some pages， here’s some ideas.’”

“我雖擔心，但又不想讓人覺得我因循守舊。如果人工智能讓對著空白頁面發怵的創作者心想‘哦，不錯，這幾頁寫得還行，這些想法不錯’，那多半就有用?！?/p>

But some screenwriters are already worried about how far the AI revolution might go. Marc Guggenheim， who has numerous film and TV credits and is also author of the LegalDispatch newsletter， sees both promise and peril in the technology.

但一些編劇已開始擔憂人工智能革命會發展到什么程度。創作了眾多影視作品的馬克·古根海姆同時還是《法律報道》簡報的作者，他認為這項技術既帶來希望也帶來風險。

He says： “Right now I don’t think AI is ready for primetime in terms of being able to write scripts or craft stories but I see a world where it absolutely will be able to do that. It probably will be a real threat to writers down the road.

他說：“我認為，目前人工智能尚未具備為黃金檔節目創作腳本或編排劇情的能力。但我預料有朝一日它絕對能行。往后它很可能會對編劇構成真正的威脅?！?/p>

“Who’s to say that ChatGPT won’t be ready in very short order7 to do a pass on a script， revisions on a script？ They could even say： ‘Do a set of revisions in the style of Aaron Sorkin.’”

“誰說ChatGPT無法在極短時間內對劇本進行審閱、修改呢？你甚至可以要求：‘按艾倫·索金的風格做一番修改?！?/p>

The tech industry is notoriously male dominated and AI is no different. Guggenheim， 52， comments： “Where is the AI getting its information to be programmed and is that information only coming from a certain subset of society？ If it’s going to tell stories from the perspective of its programmers， essentially， then you have to worry about the lack of diversity among the programmers.”

眾所周知，科技行業由男性主導，人工智能也不例外。52歲的古根海姆評論說：“人工智能從何處獲取編程所需的信息？此類信息是否僅僅來自社會某一分支群體？如果基本上是從程序員的角度敘事，那么你得擔心程序員缺乏多樣性。”

Writers are not the only ones facing potential upheaval8. The voices of celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain and artist Andy Warhol were posthumously recreated by AI in the documentaries Roadrunner and The Andy Warhol Diaries. Actor James Earl Jones has given his approval for AI to use early Darth Vader9 recordings to replicate his voice in future Star Wars series.

可能面臨劇變的不只是編劇。在紀錄片《跑路者》和《安迪·沃霍爾：時代日記》中，已故的名廚安東尼·波登和藝術家安迪·沃霍爾的聲音都是用人工智能技術復制的。演員詹姆斯·厄爾·瓊斯已同意，在未來的《星球大戰》系列中，由人工智能利用早期的達斯·維達原聲錄音來復制他的聲音。

The National Association of Voice Actors， an advocacy group10， insists that it is not anti-technology or anti-AI but is calling for stronger regulation. It warns that it is increasingly hard to know when and where synthesised voices are replacing humans in audio books， video games and other media.

作為維權團體，美國全國配音演員協會堅稱不反對科技和人工智能，只是呼吁加強監管。該協會提醒說，現在愈發難以知曉，在有聲書籍、電子游戲和其他媒體中，合成語音在何時何處取代了真人原聲。

The group’s president， Tim Friedlander， says： “The biggest concern is that we just don’t know what’s out there and there’s no way to track it and no way to find out if it’s being used.

該協會主席蒂姆·弗里德蘭德表示：“最大的憂慮是，我們壓根兒不知個中虛實，既無法追本溯源，也無法查出是否使用了合成語音。

“For voice actors， a lot of how we make our living is based on the licensing of our voice and so， if we have an unlicensed version of our voice working for free， then that is instantly taking work away from us and money out of our pockets and hurting our ability to make a living.”

“我們配音演員大多依靠授權使用自己的聲音謀生。因此，只要未經授權免費使用我們的聲音，即會搶走我們的工作，竊取我們的收入，損害我們的謀生能力?！?/p>

Joshua Glick， visiting associate professor of film and electronic arts at Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson， New York， pointed to the benefits of AI in the 2020 documentary film Welcome to Chechnya. In Welcome to Chechnya Ryan Laney， the effects supervisor， was using deepfake technology as a way to protect the onscreen subjects to essentially create what was called ‘digital veils’ for the individuals that appear in the film.

喬舒亞·格利克是位于紐約州哈德遜河畔安南戴爾鎮巴德學院的電影和電子藝術客座副教授，他指出2020年上映的紀錄片《歡迎來到車臣》使用人工智能的好處。特效總監瑞安·萊尼利用深度偽造技術來保護銀幕上的人物，為在該片中出鏡的人員創建所謂的“數字面罩”。

“It allowed those people to communicate and engage with audiences but also to maintain their anonymity. That was one instance in the human rights context where the technology is having some impact.”

“這可讓這些人與觀眾溝通和互動，但又保持匿名狀態。這是人工智能技術在保護人權方面發揮一定作用的一個實例?！?/p>

But what if AI was able to script a sequel to Casablanca， recreate the same cast—deepfakes of Humphrey Bogart， Ingrid Bergman and co-simulate their voices and turn it into a finished film that looked convincing？ Glick is sceptical. “It creates a strange relationship between the audience and those characters in the film and the story that they’re involved in. It plunges us into the uncanny valley11.

可假如人工智能可以為電影《卡薩布蘭卡》編寫續集，再現同一演員陣容——亨弗萊·鮑嘉、英格麗·褒曼等人的深度偽造版，并協同仿真其聲音，打造一部以假亂真的電影成片，又會怎樣呢？格利克對此表示懷疑?！斑@會在觀眾與電影角色及相關劇情之間形成一種奇怪的關系，使人陷入恐怖谷。

“Our knowledge of who these people are， their personalities， what they’re like， what their families might be like， their background， what they’ve been like on set swirl around a production，” he continues. “They give the production of a film or TV show a sense of allure and intrigue and a part of what we might call the media culture today.

“我們對這些人的身份、性格、為人、家庭、出身背景和片場表現的了解圍繞著作品的制作過程，”他繼續說道，“使影片或電視節目的制作更具魅力、引人入勝，我們今天會把這稱作傳媒文化的一部分。

“What it means to follow a project as it’s unfolding， not just to watch a finished film or stream a TV show， is important. Our knowledge of the creative labour and these human dimensions of it are part of the enjoyment that spectators derive from the films and part of what makes the film and television industry distinct. It needs to do its business in public.”

“重要的是跟進項目的開展過程，而非只是觀看電影成片或在線觀看電視節目。對創作及其人性層面的了解是觀眾從電影中獲得樂趣的一部分，也是令影視業獨具一格的部分原因。影視業要公開化運作?！?/p>

AI could also have far reaching social and economic consequences. Olcun Tan， a German-born visual effects supervisor based in Los Angeles， says： “It reduces the prospects for people entering the workforce as an assistant or as somebody doing research to start their career. If the AI does a better job then how do people start getting into an industry to learn from ground up， to grow into a position of expertise eventually？”

人工智能還會產生深遠的社會和經濟影響。出生于德國、現居洛杉磯的視覺特效總監奧爾昆·坦說：“這減少了人們作為助理或研究人員開始影業生涯的可能性。如果人工智能干得更出色，那人類還怎么入行時從頭學起、最終成長為行家里手？”

Tan adds： “I feel we’re creating a world like the Greeks had. They would make pilgrimages and ask the Oracle. In these temples they would have places where you put your hand in and then you would ask for your future. We’re going in that direction because AI is getting so powerful.”

坦補充說：“我覺得我們正在創建一個古希臘式的世界。古希臘人會去朝圣，乞求神諭。在神廟里某些地方，將手伸入其中，然后求問命運。我們正在向那個方向發展，因為人工智能日益強大。”

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎者）

1 cost-effective有成本經濟效益的，劃算的。 2 storyboard（電影等的）劇情梗概系列圖片。

3電影《2001太空漫游》中的一臺超級電腦，在片中殺害了四名宇航員。 4 malevolence惡意，惡毒。 5 ambivalent矛盾的，模棱兩可的。 6 primetime黃金時間，黃金檔。

7 in short order立即，馬上。

8 upheaval劇變，動亂。 9《星球大戰》系列電影的主角之一，由詹姆斯·厄爾·瓊斯配音。 10 advocacy group倡導團體，維權團體。

11 uncanny valley“恐怖谷”是日本機器人專家森政弘在1970年創造的一個術語，指隨著仿真物（如機器人、玩偶等）模擬真實性程度的變化，人對其親和力也會產生變化，一般規律是親和力隨著仿真程度增高而增加，但當仿真程度到達一個較高臨界點時，人的親和反應會陡然跌入谷底，突然會對這個仿真物產生排斥、恐懼、困惑等負面心理。