Thanks to Climate Chang

Fall weather is drastically changing thanks to global warming. Fixing it will require us to stabilize emissions.

由于全球變暖，秋天的天氣正在經歷劇烈的變化。要解決這一問題，我們需要穩定碳排放。

One of the great pleasures of autumn is its colorful aesthetics. The phenomenon in which normally green leaves transition into shades of red， orange， yellow and eventually brown is known officially as “leaf phenology”， which some people eagerly anticipate each year. But like many ways in which climate change is radically altering our weather patterns—from blistering heat waves to sea level-induced floods—autumn itself is changing.

秋天最大的樂趣之一在于其豐富多彩的美感。通常綠葉會逐漸染上紅色、橙色和黃色，最終轉為棕色，這一現象的正式名稱為“葉片物候學”，每年都有人對這一變化翹首以盼。然而，正如氣候變化在許多方面徹底改變了我們所處的天氣模式那樣——從嚴酷的熱浪到海平面上升引發的洪水——秋天本身也在發生變化。

“Climate change and global warming is not inconsistent with snow at all， and in fact you may actually get more snow.”

“氣候變化和全球變暖與降雪并不沖突，事實上，降雪量可能會增多。”

According to a study published earlier this year in the journal PLOS One， the season length is growing， meaning that it is taking longer for leaves to change their colors. And this is not the only way in which climate change is messing with the season so many of us love.

根據今年早些時候發表在《科學公共圖書館·綜合》期刊上的一項研究，秋天正在變長，這意味著葉片變色所需時間也更久。然而，氣候變化給這個備受喜愛的季節造成的攪擾不止這一種。

“It’s trees are holding onto their leaves longer，” explained Dr. Howard Diamond， senior climate scientist at NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory， when speaking to Salon. “I can see that in my own neighborhood， where I can remember 20 years ago the leaves would drop a lot sooner than they do now. That’s more anecdotal， but it is backed up by research that we’re seeing.”

“樹葉停留枝頭的時間越來越久了。”美國國家海洋和大氣管理局空氣資源實驗室的高級氣候科學家霍華德·戴蒙德博士在接受沙龍網站采訪時解釋說。“我在自己住處附近就看得到這一變化，我記得二十年前那里的樹葉落得比現在早得多。雖然那聽上去更像是傳聞，但我們所看到N99jHgm9ddr8dZ4QKPCL8Q==的研究支撐了這一點。”

Climate change isn’t just causing the leaves to change later. We can also expect later frosts， according to Dr. Michael E. Mann， a professor of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Mann told Salon that “means that mosquitos and disease-carrying pests like ticks persist further into autumn， posing a greater health risk to us.”

賓夕法尼亞大學地球與環境科學教授邁克爾·E. 曼博士表示，氣候變化不僅會讓樹葉變色時間更晚，也可能讓霜凍來得更遲。曼告訴沙龍網站，那“意味著蚊子和蜱蟲等攜帶疾病的害蟲入秋后存活更長時間，給我們帶來更大的健康隱患”。

Mann also pointed out that El Ni?o—the climate phenomenon in which the ocean surface warms in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and thereby alters weather patterns—is going to set a new record for global temperatures every year in which the event happens. This means more extreme heat in the summers， as well as worsened tropical storms and intensified droughts.

曼還指出，厄爾尼諾（即熱帶地區的中太平洋和東太平洋海面溫度升高，從而改變天氣模式的氣候現象）將來每次發生，都會刷新當年的全球高溫記錄。這意味著夏天極端高溫將更加頻繁，熱帶風暴更加惡劣，干旱更加嚴重。

As Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth， a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research， told Salon by email， “This year there is a major El Ni?o underway and in strong El Ni?o conditions there is a strong tendency for a southward shifted jet stream across the U.S.： storm track favored further south than usual and wetter through to Florida， but dryer and warmer in the northern tier States.”

美國國家大氣研究中心的杰出學者凱文·E. 特倫伯思博士通過電子郵件告訴沙龍網站：“今年一場強勁的厄爾尼諾現象正在醞釀中，在強厄爾尼諾現象影響下，一股向南方移動的高空急流極有可能席卷美國：風暴路徑與平日相比將進一步往南，佛羅里達州將變得更加潮濕，但北部各州會變得更加溫暖干燥。”

If there is any good news at all， though， we may be able to stave off this development. Citing a recent study in Frontiers in Science， Mann pointed out that if humans limit their carbon dioxide emissions， they can still prevent the worst effects of climate change from pounding them during the autumn months.

如果說還有什么好消息的話，那就是，我們也許可以減緩氣候變化的發展。曼引用了《科學前沿》期刊上的一項近期研究結果并指出，人類如果控制二氧化碳排放量，還是能夠在秋天的幾個月里避免受到氣候變化帶來的最壞影響的沖擊。

“A new study just out today provides further evidence that surface warming will likely stop after carbon emissions reach zero，” Mann told Salon， a point that he echoed in his recent commentary for Live Science. Yet even though some of the more radical aspects of climate change altering autumn can be rolled back， others are going to be here to stay.

曼還告訴沙龍網站，“今天剛發表的一項新研究進一步證明，碳排放量達到零后，地表升溫很可能就會停止。”他在最近發表于趣味科學網站上的評論中也闡述了這一點。然而，盡管使秋天發生改變的氣候變化帶來的一部分極端影響可以避免，但另一部分的影響將持續存在。

For example， as Trenberth noted， “one way to think of climate change effects is that the summer gets longer and the winter shorter. So the autumn is a bit later.” These sorts of changes are baked into our future， because the full effects of the greenhouse gases already emitted have not yet been felt.

舉個例子，正如特倫伯思所指出的，“對于氣候變化的影響，有一種理解方式是，夏天變得更長，冬天變得更短，因此秋天來得更晚一些。”這類變化將是未來的必然組成部分，因為已排放溫室氣體帶來的影響尚未完全呈現。

“Now clearly that does not apply to the light： the equinox is still at the same time，” Trenberth added， commenting on the fact that the technical definition of autumn—which depends on Earth’s position relative to the Sun—is not going to change. “So some things get out of sync. That can badly affect many critters， such as birds who rely on bugs and food at certain times to feed their young” because even though certain aspects of autumn are going to proceed as they always have， the weather surrounding the season will often be quite different.

秋天的專業定義取決于地球相對于太陽的位置，它不會發生改變。特倫伯思在評論這一事實時補充道：“現在看來，很明顯，氣候變化并不適用于光照：春分和秋分的時間仍然不變。如此一來，一些事物將不再協調。這將對許多生物造成嚴重的影響，比如，依靠昆蟲和特定時間的食物來哺育后代的鳥類。”原因在于，盡管在某些方面，秋天將一如既往，但期間天氣往往會大不相同。

“You’ll have warmer weather also leading to a little bit more humidity in the air， especially on the east eastern part of the country，” Diamond said. “It’s not as dry and crisp in the mornings as you might expect， and there will be warmer weather when you do get rains.”

“你會發現，天氣變暖也導致空氣濕度增大，這在美國東部尤為明顯。”戴蒙德說道，“早晨并不像你期待的那樣干燥清爽，并且即使是下雨的時候，天氣也會更暖。”

That can translate into heavier precipitation events because warmer air holds more moisture and more water vapor， Diamond explained. “You’re probably going to have more warm days in the autumn than you used to have.”

這種情況可能會轉化為更強的降水事件，因為越溫暖的空氣，容納的水分和水蒸氣越多，戴蒙德解釋道：“秋天溫暖的天數很可能會比過去多。”

Diamond also emphasized the importance of not blaming every new autumn-related development on climate change. For example， nor’easters—or intense storms that originate off the American northeast—are going to happen regardless of climate change. At the same time， “I think what we might see is more intense nor’easters because of the fact that we have very much warmer ocean temperatures.” Also， while it may seem counterintuitive， climate change also means there might be more snow.

戴蒙德還強調，不應將與秋天有關的一切新現象都歸咎于氣候變化。比如，無論有沒有氣候變化，東北風暴（源于美國東北部沿岸的強烈風暴）都會發生。與此同時，“鑒于海溫大幅升高這一事實，我認為今后可能會有更多強東北風暴。”以及，雖然這似乎違背直覺，但氣候變化確實意味著降雪可能會增多。

“In higher temperatures you actually have more precipitation， so more snow，” Diamond observed. “Same thing with the sea surface temperatures in the ocean. If they’re higher， there’s more water vapor and more energy for the storms. So for instance， a couple years ago in Boston， it was a really large one day blizzard， record setting. And at the same time， the sea surface temperature to where we were high were much elevated just off the coast of Boston. So people may see snow and wonder， ‘What’s the deal with climate change？’ And climate change and global warming is not inconsistent with snow at all—in fact you may actually get more snow.”

戴蒙德表示：“在溫度更高的情況下，降水量增加，降雪量也隨之增加。海面溫度也是一樣的道理。海面溫度越高，就有越多的水蒸氣和能量來形成風暴。舉個例子，幾年前，在波士頓下了一場持續一天的超大暴風雪，刷新了降雪記錄。而同一時刻，波士頓海岸附近的海面溫度卻比已經算高的海溫還要高出許多。所以人們看到雪也許會想，‘氣候變化到底是怎么回事？’氣候變化和全球變暖與降雪并不沖突，事實上，降雪可能確實會更多了。”