From Disaster to No Disaster

Mitigation requires public participation inmonitoring and warning， but this works onlyin a well-ordered society.

THE world is discharging greenhouse gasemissions at the fastest rate in history.This is increasing global temperatures andcreating the need for planning to preventunavoidable and unprecedented climate events frombecoming disasters.

October 13 was the International Day for DisasterRisk Reduction， this year focusing on education andchildren. Children are those who will suffer most ifthe world continues to heat up. Hence， they needto learn how to cope with the consequences of theselfish failure of their parent’s generation to respond quickly enough to scientists’ warnings.

The Red Cross in Hong Kong marked the daywith a carnival in the Sai Kung District that introducedchildren to the five biggest climate eventsthreatening the city. Each was represented bya heat-fighting character： Rainy， Stormy， Heaty，Floody and Landy.

The symbolism of the first four characters is selfevidentbut the fifth warrants explanation. Introducedin children’s language， this heat fighter “helpsothers escape to safety with its elastic feet.” In adultspeak，it emphasizes the importance of communityaction， individuals coming together to assist andprotect others.

The vital importance of raising public awarenessand engaging the community in preventative actionwas also a key learning point to emerge when agroup of young scientists from around the world metin Beijing in October. The meeting took place at theIntegrated Research on Disaster Risk （IRDR） 2024 InternationalConference， a scientific program cosponsoredby the International Science Council and theUnited Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.The conference was opened by the new IRDR ExecutiveDirector Yang Saini.

Four scientists from Brazil， China， Benin andGreece each detailed the rising risk of adverse climateevents to which their governments needed torespond. A fifth scientist， Nchini Livinus Wayih fromCameroon， detailed the perils created by extensiveurban development on the flanks of an active volcano.As recently as 1999 an eruption damaged buildingsin Buea， a regional capital in Cameroon that hassince grown into a city with a population of 300，000.

Volcanic eruptions， of course， are not climaticevents although they can have a major impact onclimate. Volcanoes erupting over the last 260 millionyears have led to mass extinctions of life， the releaseof carbon dioxide super heating the planet on severaloccasions. More recently， single eruptions such asthat of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991and Hunga Tonga in the Tongan archipelago in thesouthern Pacific Ocean in 2022， have cooled globaltemperatures. This is perhaps due to the ejection ofdust into the atmosphere.

As with climatic events， disasters associated withvolcanic activity can be avoided by establishing earlywarning systems that engage local communities inrisk assessment and mitigation efforts. However，resources are always short， especially in developingcountries.

Given universal cost constraints， developing costeffective solutions is essential. Wu Shengnan of theChongqing Academy of Governance， speaking at theIRDR conference， explained how the Chinese experiencemight have relevance for other countries.

On August 7， 2010， a catastrophic flow of debriscascaded down a mountainside in Zhouqu County，Gansu Province， destroying an area of land 500 meterswide and five kilometers long; 1，501 people diedand 264 remain unaccounted for.

Several exceptional events occurred to cause thedebris flow at Zhouqu. The county lies in rugged terraincharacterized by complex geological structures，soft and fragmented rock and highly weathered surfacematerials. Two years beforehand， the Wenchuanearthquake had occurred further fracturing the rockstrata.

But most significantly， the area had been experiencingunprecedented drought conditions overthe previous nine months causing soils to dry andcrumble. Then a “once in more than 50-year storm”occurred with over 90 mm of rain falling overnight.The landscape was transformed into an unstablefluid that submerged buildings and their inhabitantsas they slept.

There had been no warning but there could havebeen. Nowadays， drones， optical remote sensingand devices such as the interferometric syntheticaperture radar could and would be used to provideadvanced warning. But these methods are expensiveas are the potential consequences of doing nothing.

Prevention， therefore， became the goal whenreconstructing Zhouqu， assessing risk， rebuildingin low-risk areas， and engineering to divert futuredebris flows away from built-up areas.

Perhaps more importantly， China has establisheda system of localized public participation in monitoringand warning （PPMW） which now operates inalmost 40，000 townships. The PPMW system relies oncommunity education and active involvement.

Observers are appointed at village level， trained，and required to check potential hazard sites routinely，more often when weather forecasts suggest it tobe necessary. Their duty is to alert the village committeeof potential hazards with reports then beingpassed onto the township to initiate a professionalassessment of risk. All residents are provided withhazard mitigation information including evacuationinstructions and emergency contacts and with personalizedguidance reflecting the needs of individualhouseholds.

In 2018， an event very similar to that in Zhouquoccurred near Boli Village in Sichuan Province. Alandslide buried 80 hectares of farmland and destroyed186 houses. However， because the PPMWsystem was active， nobody was killed. Official estimatessuggest that the PPMW system saved over 96，600 Chinese lives between 2017 and 2019.

In the same IRDR conference session， GouvidéJean Gbaguidi from the West African Science ServiceCentre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Useexplained how climate change in Benin is creating avariety of new hazards in different parts of the country.Flooding and coastal erosion are increasing inthe south. In central Benin， problems of drought andbushfires are being exacerbated by intensive farming.In the north， the lethal combination comprisesdrought and seasonal flooding. Rapid urbanization，as in Cameroon， is aggravating the problem; housingcheaply built of local materials offers little protectionagainst floodwaters.

Drought is also a growing problem in the semi-aridregions of Brazil. As drought events become morefrequent and severe due to climate change， access towater is becoming increasingly problematic. LidianeCosta， a graduate student from S?o Paulo StateUniversity， focused attention on the vulnerability ofpeople living in urban areas. She and her team foundthat access to water varied markedly even within cities.The predictors of vulnerability were often associatedwith poverty： shared housing， no bathrooms orpipe water and low incomes.

Greece is increasingly prone to fires and floodsand also experiences over 300 significant earthquakesannually. Chrysoula Chitou， a PhD student atthe University of Ioannina， reporting joint work with Professor Stella Tsani of the National and KapodistrianUniversity of Athens， discussed the policyframeworks of the European Union， and elucidatedhow the Greek government is striving to build robustregulatory frameworks to be able to assess and manageflood and fire risks.

Greece is one of five European pilot areas seekingto respond to wildfires by integrating social，economic and policy concerns in assessing， reducingand adapting to the new normal. In this， there aresome parallels with the Chinese PPMW system.

However， as Chitou explained， Greece faces differentchallenges， ones shared by other countriesrepresented in the seminar. Policy responsibilities areoften spread across different ministries resulting ina lack of coordination. Land use and urban planninglaws are inconstantly applied because local governmentslack necessary funding and technical expertiseand come under pressure from special interestgroups. Short-term political priorities， sometimesdriven by electoral considerations， often take precedenceover the seemingly less immediate need forgreater resilience. Public engagement is frequently limited despite efforts to enhance awareness. Peopleseem not to appreciate the importance of followingguidelines especially when they counter individualinterests – a property cheap enough to afford， or oneoverlooking the sea or with a mountain vista.

China’s PPMW system works because China is awell-ordered society. Participative government reachesdown to the village. Local communal decisionsare the norm rather than the exception. Officials arepresumed to be acting in the public interest. Peopleare therefore prepared to follow instructions andhave always mobilized in pursuit of shared goals. Thecentrality of the Communist Party of China meansthat strategic planning is not only possible but resultsin demonstrable achievements： reduced risk， greaterresilience， lives saved.

China， though， is a hard act for other countries tofollow.

ROBERT WALKER is professor emeritus and emeritus fellow ofGreen Templeton College， University of Oxford. He is a professorat the Jingshi Academy at Beijing Normal University andalso a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts and the Academy ofSocial Sciences in the U.K.