西南地區氣象資料測試、預處理和加工研究報告

肖天貴

摘 要：西南地區是我國西部山區大型滑坡災害的主要發生地，因此西南地區的氣象資料所映射出的信息對大型滑坡致災因子的識別和預報預警方法的研究具有非常重要的意義。由于獲取的大量原始氣象資料的存儲格式、觀測時次疏密、分辨率等均存在差異，因而造成應用過程中的困難和局限，往往需要對實際觀測的多源資料進行測試和預處理。（1）通過四川、重慶、云南和貴州4省市逐日常規氣象觀測資料的統計加工處理，獲得了西南地區各時間尺度的降水趨勢、地理分布以及各級別降水量的氣候概率值。（2）由于西南地區地形復雜，局地小尺度的氣象要素特征在常規氣象觀測資料中可能會被平滑或顯示不明顯，因此利用觀測網格更為細致的逐小時區域自動站的資料就非常必要，利用收集的西南地區2 469個區域自動站資料分析了局地小尺度的氣象要素分布及變化特點。（3）運用收集到的風云二號（FY2）衛星云圖資料和反演的降水估計產品，進一步分析了西部地區尤其是西藏西北部資料空白區域的降水分布；衛星資料反演降水產品與實況降水對比相似率在60%以上，精度達到40%左右。（4）通過四川涼山州對流性降水案例的雷達圖像資料的加工處理，分析了西南地區雷達回波資料在強降水天氣及滑坡和泥石流災害發生時的環境條件和臨近預報預警的可行性。（5）利用發生在四川盆地邊緣山地的兩次降水過程進行WRF數值模式的敏感性試驗和環流特征分析及動力特征等分析。模擬再現了降水的雨帶走向、形狀特征、雨區位置、暴雨中心位置以及中尺度輻合線、中尺度低渦等中尺度系統活動過程，表明WRF模式的敏感性和應用性。

關鍵詞：西南地區 降水量 降水反演 短臨預報 數值模擬

Abstract： Heavy landslides mainly take place in southwest regions in western mountains of China. Therefore，meteorological data in southwest regions can map out the messages to identity factors or forecasting and warning of heavy landslides. The difference in the format of meteorological data， the density of the observation time and resolution causing difficulties and limitations in the process of application，we need to do some test and pretreatment of the multi-source data. （1）Counting and processing the daily routine meteorological data of Sichuan， Chongqing， Yunnan and Guizhou to get the trend of precipitation in each time scale， geographical distribution and the climate of precipitation probability value at all levels. （2） Due to the complexity of terrain in southwest China， so we need to make use of the hourly data in more detailed zone automatic station to compensate for the smooth and unconspicuous of routine data； Using the collected 2469 automatic station data in southwest to analysis the meteorological elements distribution and changes of small scale system. （3）By using the cloud pictures from FY2 satellite， the estimation products that inversion of precipitation， and the raw meteorological data received from radio satellite， try to filled in the blank space data of the regional where the automatic weather station is unrealized； compared the inversion of precipitation with actual precipitation， the similar rate over 60% and the accuracy is about 40%. （4）An analysis of radar image about a convectional precipitation in liangshan was did. Through the processing and handling the radar echo of heavy rain， analysis the environmental conditions of the landslide and debris flow disasters and the feasibility of geological disaster forecast warning. （5）Select two precipitation process occurs on the edge of the Sichuan basin mountain to proceed the numerical model WRF sensitivity test， and do the circulation characteristics analysis and the analysis of dynamic characteristics. The numerical model successfully reproduces the stretching direction of the precipitation， shape characteristics， precipitation area and the location of rainstorm center， and the mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale low vortex. It shows the sensitivity and applicability of WRF.

Key Words： Southwest Area； Precipitation； Precipitation inversion； The short forecast； Numerical Simulation

閱讀全文鏈接（需實名注冊）：http：//www.nstrs.cn/xiangxiBG.aspx？id=50459&flag=1