高油價照進美國現實

高油價照進美國現實

墨西哥灣漏油事件發生以后，美國總統巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)借漏油事件呼吁發展清潔能源。如今，高油價的現實或許將改變美國的石油消費習慣，完成政策制定者所做不到的事情。

從汽車問世到上世紀70年代，油價始終徘徊在每桶15-20美元之間。到1979年，受伊朗等國的影響，油價暴漲至每桶80美元。但事實證明，油價能夠重返低位。由于非歐佩克(Opec)產油國大舉增產（增產規模超過沙特石油總產量），加之石油危機過后，經濟衰退緊隨而至，也令全球石油需求減少了一成，這些因素推動油價迅速回落至原有水平，且其后20年基本保持在這一水平。

今日的不同之處，在于油價不太可能下跌。石油需求受到了經濟增長的推動。如今唱主角的是新興經濟體，尤其是中國。從2007年起，發達國家石油消耗量下降了7%, 而發展中國家則增長了10%。在過去10年內，中國石油需求翻了一番。因此，盡管全球經歷了“大蕭條”(Great Depression)以來最嚴重的經濟衰退，油價卻依然居高不下。

新增供應能并未帶來多少喘息空間。在全球石油儲量中，由歐佩克國家控制的份額越來越大。而它們不會為了讓消費者歇口氣而提高產量。鑒于新發現的陸上石油資源多數位于政局動蕩的國家，國際能源機構(I E A)預測，未來20年內，非歐佩克國家新增的石油產量中，大部分將來自海上，其中很大部分位于深水水域。墨西哥灣漏油事件提供了一個真切的教訓：Macondo深海油井的鉆探反映出，人們很難找到其它成本較低、且易于實施的選擇。

唯一有望緩解消費國未來痛苦的是：要戒掉“油癮”，最終還得靠高油價。危機后油價依然高居不下的事實，消除了80年代油價暴跌所引發的顧慮，讓企業和投資者有信心支持環保汽車和開發替代燃料。全球各大汽車制造商如今幾乎都計劃在兩年內開發插電式混合動力車或全電動車。不久前，通用汽車(General Motors)推出了雪佛蘭沃特(Chevy Volt)。如果油價為每桶20美元，這款車的用電成本會高于使用汽油的同等大小汽車。但在油價為每桶80美元的情況下，節省的油費就足以抵消高昂的車價。面對高油價，化工業正把目光轉向天然氣，而得益于頁巖氣激增，天然氣供應日趨豐富。風險資本正押注于先進的生物燃料。

在美國沒有完善能源政策的情況下，僅憑供應緊張的石油市場推動清潔能源的部署將較為緩慢、局限比較多，過程也會不那么愉快。而且，由于全球排放的溫室氣體中，只有四分之一來自石油，高油價在解決氣候變化方面的作用將比不上美國國會目前擱置的“總量管制和排放交易”建議。不過，在當前石油市場形勢下，在清潔能源研發上的公共投資會顯得更加合意——美國與石油之間的關系也似乎終于有望得到改變。

High Oil Prices Encounters American Reality

After the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, Barack Obama,US president, used the spill to call for a new push on clean energy. Now, the reality of a high oil price maybe about to change America's petroleum habits, even if policymakers cannot.

From the birth of the automobile until the1970s, oil cost between $15 and $20 per barrel in current prices.Then, in1979, the Iranian revolution saw prices shoot up to $80 per barrel. Cheap oil proved resilient,however, as countries outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries responded with extra production, adding more than the total output of Saudi Arabia to global supply. The recession that followed the oil shocks also cut global demand by a tenth.Prices soon fell to their old levels, where they stayed for two decades.

The difference today is that oil prices are unlikely to fall. Demand for oil is driven by economic growth.Today that means emerging economies, and China in particular. The developed world has seen oil-use drop by 7 per cent since2007, but demand in the developing world is up10 per cent. Chinese demand has doubled during the past decade. As a result, oil has stayed expensive, in spite of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

There is also little hope that new supply will bring much relief. Opec countries control an increasing share of global reserves and are not inclined to increase production just to give consumers a break.With most new onshore resources in politically unstable countries, the International Energy Agency predicts that over the next two decades the lion's share of new non-Opec production will occur offshore, much of it in deep water. The real lesson of the Gulf spill is that drilling the deep Macondo well reflected the reality that there are few cheap and easy options elsewhere.

The only silver lining on a painful future for consumers is that expensive oil is just what is needed finally to kick-start the petroleum detox. The fact that high oil prices survived the crisis excises the ghosts of the1980s, and gives entrepreneurs and investors confidence to support cleaner vehicles and develop alternative fuels. Nearly all of the world's largest vehicle manufacturers now plan plug-in hybrid or fully electric vehicles within two years, with General Motors rolling out the Chevy Volt last week. At $20 per barrel,powering the Volt with electricity costs more than filling a comparable car with gasoline. But at $80, Volt drivers save enough on fuel to offset the vehicle's high price. Faced with expensive oil, the chemicals industry is turning to natural gas, increasingly abundant thanks to the shale gas boom, and venture capitalists are betting on advanced biofuels.

Make no mistake, clean-energy deployment driven by a tight oil market will be slower, more limited,and less pleasant in the absence of good policy from Washington. And as oil accounts for only a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, high prices will do little to address climate change compared with the cap and trade proposals Congress put on hold. But today's oil markets make public investment in clean-energy research and development, just now returning to1970s levels, more palatable-and a change in America's relationship with petroleum seems possible at last.