中國如何面對經濟增長減速

China is for sure to face a slowdown in the economic growth in the second half of this year and even next year after going through a consistent annual highspeed growth of economy averaging at 9.8%for 30 years.This is a normal thing.After mort than 30 years of reform and opening to the outside world，fundamental changes have taken or are taking place in the main factors which have influenced China's economic growth，and the effects of the population，resources and system bonuses are shrinking swiftely，with the boosting power to the economic growth weakening eventually.The gap between actualeconomic growth and the potential growth rate is narrowing.

The following are the main factors leading the economic slowdown in China.First is the structure adjustment.Adjusting structure and eliminating outdated production capacity is the need of the change of China's economic growth mode and achieving sustainable and steady growth.This is a long-term task for the country.Of the industries having already started structure adjustment，both the investment and output of traditional industries have declined， but the emerging industries have not yet taken shape in the country，hardly to substitute the traditional industries to become new engines for the economic growth.Currently，the contribution of emerging industries to China's economic growth is not ecough to make up the losses of contributions of the traditional industries to the economic growth.

Second are the resources and environment restraints.The 30 years'high growth has made China sacrifice a lot of its resources and environment.According to an estimation of the World Bank，China's per unit gross domestic product(GDP)consumption of steel，copper， aluminum， lead and zinc is 5.6， 4.8， 4.9，4.9 and 4.4 times of that of the world average level respectively.Such a economic growth model by sacrificing its resources and environment has made China's aggregate resources and per capita resources dropped remarkably， and buy big amounts of bulk commkodities abroad，resulting that what China buys from international market the product price would surge，especially such strategic resource products such as iron ore and petroleum，adding costs of China's economic development.Resources and environment have become one of the hare restraints for China's economic growth.

Third is that the boosting effects from the population and system bonuses to economic growth has weakened eventually.China's long-time economic growth strategy based on exports，and the low-cost labor advantage made the country form an export products structure with processing trade form taking a dominant role with raw materials supplied from abroad and so as the market.The surplus under the processing trade is almost equal to or exceeding the total trade surplus of the country.But，China's labor market has arrived at the Lewis Turning Point，and the cost rise of labor will surely shift to overseas of the limited supply and processing trade.

China's implementation of reform is actually the bonus from the system.The reform has liberalized the social productivity to the maximum，and the reform of ownership，distribution system and factor market has spurred the laboring and working enthusiasm of people，which have raised the production efficiency，and become an important engine for pushing up the economic growth.But， with the deepening of the reform， the reform of some core areas which need in-depth reform has progressed slowly or even come to a stagnation，playing a role in pulling down the economic growth.

The drive of opening to the outside world has made China enjoy the bonus worldwide.China was for the first time to outstrip the United States to become the biggest receiver of foreign direct investment(FDI)in the world since 2003 the year after China joined the World Trade Organization.The inflow of foreign companies has not only directly created GDP and export，but also made“catfish effect” under the competition pressure.At the same time，foreign-funded enterprises have made the“spillover effect” in human resorces， technology and management，helping local companies sharpen edge of competition.However，after full fulfillment of the com-mitments to WTO，the role of globalization to China's economic growth has gone weak.Particularly，after the breaking out of the financial crisis，China has become a country with the biggest number of anti-dumping investigations launched by other countries in the world.The worsening of environment for foreigh trade，other countries have again and again exerted pressure on China's foreign exchange policy， squeezing the bonus of the globalization.

Obviously， for China， the time of gaining competition advantage by ways of winning low-cost capital by depending on system rent seeking， cheap labor， environment pollution，cheap cash obtaining and devaluation of Renminbi， Chinese currency or yuan， has ended.

One thing merits attention，the base flgure of China's present aggregate economy is much different from that at the beginning of the reform and opening to the outside.China's GDP was only RMB364.5 billion in 1978， which surged to about RMB34 trillion in 2009，which is expected to reach RMB37 trillion in 2010，more than 100 times of that of 1978.Under such high base figure of the economy，it is very difficuly to maintain the high growth.

In fact，China's economy hyas arrived at the turming point of shifting from the high-growth stage to a steady growth stage.After going through a long time of high-speed growth， the period of shifting economic growth mode will surely come.Chinese economy is unlikely to maintain the annually 10%growth continuously.

Facing the possible economic slowdown，China is working hard to boost debelopment of new energy industry，remove the policy restriction on industry access for non-governmental capital，and change from the past dependence on investment and export for economic growth to dependence on the effective domestic consumption demand，in a bid to stimulate and boost endogenous motive power for the economic growth and try to achieve a steady growth of the economy.

The long-time high-speed growing economy in China is under the stern tests from the current sharp adjustment of world economic structure.Comparing with the short-term fluctuation of the economy，China is more concerned about changes of the driving factores for the