國際大腕重慶論道：服務貿易將成中國第一大產業

□ 文、圖/見習記者 蔣正

作為中國目前GDP增長最快最有活力的城市，中國產業重心轉移服務業的潮流對重慶來說，既是趨勢，也是機遇。重慶知識流程外包業務占離岸服務外包執行總額約47%，高于全國平均水平18個百分點，標志著重慶服務外包產業正向現代服務業的高端發展。今后重慶進一步成長為中國服務業增長高地，中國服務貿易進出口高地，皆需抓住產業重心轉移服務業的機會。

9月22-23日，第六屆國際服務貿易(重慶)高峰會在重慶南坪國際會展中心召開。本屆高峰會以“發展服務貿易,轉變發展方式”為主題，緊扣當前國際服務貿易領域新熱點、新趨勢，結合重慶服務貿易發展現狀，探討重慶服務貿易發展機遇。會議舉辦主旨論壇，400余名來自美國、英國、印度、新加坡、澳大利亞等40多個國家和地區的跨國公司高層、有關商協會負責人，以及全國服務外包示范城市代表及我市有關部門負責人參加。重慶市市長黃奇帆做了開場發言，副市長劉強主持會議，中國社會科學院經濟研究所所長裴長洪、畢馬威亞太區總裁馮柏文、太平洋電信首席執行官卡爾·格里夫納等發表了講話。

中國社會科學院經濟研究所所長、經濟學家裴長洪認為，服務貿易將成為中國的第一大產業。他首先從供需關系方面解釋了目前我國的外需減少，貨物貿易出口困難的局面。這方面雖然重慶的進出口貿易增長表現優于全國平均水平，但是不能說重慶是例外。接著他說，服務貿易進出口呈兩位數增長，國際分工需求是在服務貿易方面。服務貿易比貨物貿易更有發展前景。然后他分析了我國在服務貿易上的薄弱，即服務貿易大概每年一千多億美元的逆差。他提出我國發展服務貿易首先就要發展服務業，提高我國服務業競爭力。而且，這種競爭力首先要在國內市場培養，而且是原有競爭力（如廉價勞動力）衰弱了，新的競爭力（如現代物流）要發展起來。他列舉了一個事實：從去年開始，中國的服務業占GDP的比重去年首次變成了和第二產業基本上持平。今年上半年首次超過第二產業，這就說明中國的產業結構在發生變化。由此他斷言，服務業將成為中國的第一大產業。服務業是服務貿易的發展基礎，服務業的發展能促進我國在國際服務貿易上的競爭力的提高。為發展服務貿易，他還提出要“兩個抓”，抓對外開放，抓“兩帶一路”。

依裴長洪所言，服務業將成為中國的第一大產業，服務貿易是擴大出口的潛力股。產業重心轉移服務業這一潮流應該也是重慶所需要遵循的。重慶目前貨物貿易發展勢頭正猛，讓人調轉槍頭發展服務貿易是否是為貨物貿易發展潑冷水？裴長洪接下來說的話消解了筆者的疑惑：總的來看中國的貿易仍然是順差，我們貨物貿易仍然保持比較大的順差，所以我們要利用這樣好的機遇，加快發展服務貿易，使服務貿易的競爭力能夠提高。因此在一段時間之內，貨物貿易的順差和服務貿易的逆差應該是一個常態。所以貨物貿易也是必須堅持不動搖發展的，它還是彌補我國服務貿易逆差的保障。重慶經濟發展有活力，貨物貿易兩位數增長，在保證了貿易順差的同時，更應該逐浪在這股服務業發展潮流上。重慶的對外開放政策優越，又與“兩帶一路”戰略直接掛鉤，發展國際服務貿易又有良好的機遇。

重慶的對外開放政策優越，又與“兩帶一路”戰略直接掛鉤，發展國際服務貿易又有良好的機遇。

裴長洪是從貨物貿易和服務貿易的出口的方向來談的，而接下來的畢馬威亞太區總裁馮栢文卻是從對外投資的方向來談的，他的觀點也觸及產業升級和提高國際貿易競爭力的問題。雖然通常提到提高服務業競爭力，我們更多地想到的是引進技術、引進經驗，用對外投資來發展服務業和服務貿易對我們來說算是另辟蹊徑，且聽他這位澳大利亞人用流利的普通話在講臺上滔滔不絕地發言。

馮柏文的觀點是，中國已經步入轉折期，產業面臨轉型升級，而產業升級的一個重要途徑就是利用海外資源。而利用海外資源，中國的業務模式更多的是國際承包和對外投資相結合，同時以工程承包換資源的項目會越來越多。這是投資行為擴大服務貿易的例子。在一些非傳統的行業內，中國企業的對外投資呈現出較快的增長態勢，這其中就有服務業的投資。通過這些海外投資，中國獲取先進的技術和經驗，實現從勞動力密集產業，低端產業向具有新技術、新材料、新能源特征的高端產業轉變的目標。這也有助于中國提高服務貿易競爭力，通過投資走出去。因而，“中國跨國企業，為獲取各種資源和能力而進行的對外投資活動，將在促進國內經濟轉型過程中發揮重要作用。”

根據商務部發布信息，2012年前8個月，我國對外投資資金流向商務服務業的占比是56.8%，2013年前11個月占比是34.1%。我國服務業對外投資已經受到如此青睞，重慶亦可借投資促產業轉移和升級。

International big shots share insights in Chongqing Service trade will become China’s largest industry

For Chongqing, a city with the fastest GDP growth and the utmost vitality, the shifting of China’s industrial highlight to the service industry is both a trend and an opportunity. The city’s business volume of knowledge process outsourcing(KPO)takes up 47% of its total off-shore service outsourcing volume, 18% higher than the national average level, showing the escalation of Chongqing’s outsourcing industry into the high tiers of the modern service industry. In the future, in order to become a highland of China’s service industry and an import and export highland of service trade, Chongqing needs to seize the opportunity of such a shift.

On September 22 and 23, the 6th International Service Trade(Chongqing)Summit was held in Chongqing International Convention and Exhibition Center in Nanping. Titled “Developing Service trade and Transforming the Development Mode”, this summit explores the business opportunities in Chongqing’s service trade by centering on new heated topics and new trends in international service trade area in combination of the status quo of the industry. The keynote forum of this summit was attended by senior managers of transnational enterprises and heads of relevant chambers of commerce and trade associations from 40 countries and regions, including the US, Britain, India, Singapore and Australia, and also by persons in charge from national service outsourcing model cities and relevant authorities in Chongqing. Mayor Huang Qifan delivered an opening speech during the summit presided by deputy mayor Liu Qiang. Pei Changhong, director of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG and Carl Grivner, CEO of Pacnet also delivered the speeches.

Pei Changhong, economist and president of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, believed that the service industry will become China’s largest industry. He f i rst explained that the decrease of China’s external demand causes difficulties in commodity export in terms of demand and supply. Though Chongqing’s import and export growth is higher than China’s average level, the city is not remarkably better than others in terms of export. He later pointed out that the import and export of service trade increases by double digits, and the demand of international division of labor lies in the service trade, which shows that the service trade has greater potentials than the commodity trade. He then proceeded to analyze our current weakness in service trade, namely over 100 billion US dollars of trade deficit each year. To develop service trade, the first step is to promote the service industry and increase the industrial competitiveness. Such competitiveness shall be fostered inside China through reducing the original competitiveness(including cheap labor)and enhancing new competitiveness(including modern logistics). An example cited by him goes as follows: since last year, China’s service industry took the same proportion in GDP as the secondary industry, and in the first half of this year, it surpassed the latter. These facts ref l ect the changes in the country’s industrial structure. Judging from these aspects, he believed that the service industry will become the largest industry in China. The service industry is the foundation for the service trade, whose development can improve our competitiveness in international service trade. He also pointed out that we shall ramp up both opening-up and “Two Belts, One Road”.

According to Pei Changhong, the service industry will become China’s largest industry and thus the service trade has the potential to expand export. Chongqing should follow the trend of the shifting of industrial highlight to the service industry. The city’s commodity trade currently has a strong momentum, but will it be dampened if developing the service trade is encouraged? Pei’s further explanation put off such doubt. Overall speaking, China has a trade surplus and a large commodity trade surplus in particular, so we can take the opportunity to promote the service trade and improve its competitiveness. Within a certain period, there will be consistent surplus in commodity trade and def i cit in service trade. We shall adhere to developing the commodity trade, as it supplements the def i cit in the service trade. With vigorous economic growth and a double-digit growth of commodity trade, Chongqing shall also promote its service industry while it ensures its trade surplus. With the superior supporting policies of openingup and its strategy of “Two Belts, One Road”, the city is endowed with favorable opportunities in developing the international service trade.

Pei based his analysis on the export of commodity trade and service trade. While Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG, put forward his opinions in terms of outbound investment. He also addressed industrial upgrading and improving competitiveness in international trade. Speaking of a higher competitiveness in the service industry, we are more likely to think of bringing in technology and experiences. But developing the service industry and the service trade by means of outbound investment is a new way. Let us hear out this Australian gentleman’s enthusiastic speech in f l uent Chinese.

According to Barber, China has stepped into the turning point when industries are faced with transformation and upgrading, mostly through exploring foreign resources. With regard to exploring foreign resources, China combines international contracting with outbound investment, and there will be more projects exchanging project contracting for resources. These are examples of how investment expands service trade. Investment by Chinese enterprises in some non-traditional industries abroad exhibits a quick growth, and the service industry is one of them. Such outbound investment enables China to obtain advanced technologies and experiences so as to achieve the goal of transforming labor-intensive and low-end industries into highend industries featured by new technology, new material and new energy. Besides, such investment can help improving China’s competitiveness in the service trade and push the country to go global. Therefore, “China’s transnational enterprises will play a very important role in its domestic economic transformation by outbound investment intending to acquire resources and capabilities.”

According to statistics released by Ministry of Commerce, over the first 8 months of 2012, 56.8% of total capital invested abroad went to the business service industry. Over the first 11 months of 2013, this percentage stood at 34.1%. This shows that the outbound investment in service industry has drawn much attention. Chongqing can also promote industrial shift and upgrading by means of outbound investment.