Developments of Middle East Political Landscape and their Impact in Post Iranian Nuclear Era

沙治平

Abstract：in the second half of 2015， the Middle Easts situation changed rapidly，.This paper reviews the recent conclusion of Iranian nuclear agreement， Russian military intervention in Syrian civil war， and breakthrough made in founding of Palestine as a nation， while analyzing the impact of these developments on the Middle East political landscape： first， the conclusion of Iranian nuclear agreement established Iran as the number one power； second， Russian military deployment in Syria fundamentally changed the balance of power between Shias and Sunnis， representing the first direct involvement of a global power other than the US in the Middle Ease after the end of Cold War； third， the breakthrough made in founding of Palestine as a nation has weakened the strategic position of Israel， possibly quasi-marginalizing Israel in the future Middle East political landscape.

Key words：Iranian nuclear agreement；Syrian civil war；founding of Palestine；Middle East political landscape

In the second half of 2015， the security landscape in the Middle East changed substantially， as manifested in the following aspects. First， in July 2015， Iranian nuclear agreement finally concluded after more than ten years of Marathon-like negotiations. Second， in early October 2015， Russia officially sent troops to Syria after one and a half months of preparations， raising the curtain for military strike against Islamic countries and hopefully radically turning around the situation of Syrian civil war. Third， Palestinian efforts to establish a nation made a breakthrough， as the UN headquarter in New York raised the national flag of Palestine for the first time. The impacts of these new developments on the Middle East political landscape are analyzed as follows：

1. Impact of conclusion of Iranian nuclear agreement on Middle East political landscape： Iran has established itself as the number one power in the region

First， Iraqi Saddam regime collapsed after the US military strikes in 2003， after which the new regime remains unable to effectively contain the national situation， such that the Iraqi political fragmentation became even more salient with the rampancy of such extreme terrorism as Islamic Nation， to an extent that tens of thousands of Iraqi government troops surrendered to hundreds of ISIS militants. What followed is the exposure of Nouri al-Malikis confidants freeloading， causing the government to lose its influence over the military. The present-day Iraqi government not only faces terrorist threats but also high tension with Kurd， therefore， Iraq today is merely a nominal nation， in which there are dozens of independent armed forces who have made Iraq no longer a power in the Middle East long time ago.

Second， the Arab Spring turned the Egyptian regime upside down， causing the Egyptian government to change hands twice， as highly religious Muslim Brotherhood and Cecil military government started a civil war in succession， in which the Muslim Brotherhood received support of almost all Islamic sects. The involvement of two religious forces in the political struggle seriously hindered the economic and social development. At present， the Cecil-led Egyptian government sees an economic downturn to 2% and a hardest-hit tourism and foreign exchange reserve， with a continuous stream of regime changes， the latest of which occurred in September 2015.The international communitys confidence in Egypt has fallen to the historic low， meaning that Egypt can hardly play a dominant role in the short term.

Third， Saudi Arabia faces daunting challenges from all sides although it has withstood the tests and maintained political stability： the continuous protests of Bahraini Shiites in the east， the political turmoil of Iraq in the north， the ongoing possibility of southern intrusion of Islamic nation， almost four years of Syrian civil war in the west and the war-torn Yemen in the south. Hence， it is undoubted that political turmoil of any neighboring country might affect the stability and development of Saudi Arabia. In early 2015， as Saudi troops suffered serious setbacks in Yemen， the relatively insufficient military strength seriously affects the external influence of Saudi Arabia， proving that it is unable to play a leading role as Egypt did years before.

Last， Iran became the only country to substantially preserve it strength after the US intervention in the Middle East and the incident of Arab Spring.

2. Impact of Russian military intervention in Syria on the Middle East political landscape： the balance of power between Shias and Sunnis changed

The Russian military intervention in Syria will radically change the satiation of Syrian civil war， as the influence of Russia and its allies will further improver regardless of whether and in what manner Bashar al-Assad will be dethroned. In 2014， the rise of extreme terrorist organization called Islamic Nation took a further step to marginalize the western-supported Syrian national commission， eroding upon its position as a representative opposition party. From the perspective of realism， the US operations in Syria are intended to weaken the current Syrian regime， dethrone the dictator， thaw the Russian and Iranian influence on Syria， prevent Syrian civil war from spilling over to other regions like Israeli to further worsen the regional security and prevent the al-Qaeda-connected Islamic Jihads from opening a new battlefield in Syria， thus restructuring the Middle East situation. As the Saudi-led Arab League began discussing the possible military intervention in Syrian civil war， Russian President Putin took the lead to launch the military strikes against Islamic Nation for the first time on September 30， 2015， conducting airstrikes on the armed strongholds of extremist organizations in suburban areas of Homs province， suburban areas of Hama province and suburban areas of northwestern province of Latakia， targeting military equipment， communication hubs， arsenals and fuel storage faculties， killing dozens of militants and destroying a large number of military facilities and weapons and facilities.

3. Impact of breakthrough made in founding of Palestine on the Middle East political landscape： marginalization of Israeli strategic position

It is noteworthy that over the past year the Palestinian nation-building process has been significantly accelerated. In December 2014， nine out of 15 votes at the UN Security Council were cast in favor of founding of Palestine as a nation although the UN Security Council did not adopt the resolution on founding of Palestine， including affirmative votes cast by three permanent members of China， Russia and France. On September 10， 2015， the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution with an overwhelming majority， allowing the national flag of Palestine to be raised at the UN headquarters. 119 out of 193 member states cast affirmative votes， as opposed to 8 opposing votes from the US and Israel and other countries. Palestinian deputy to the UN Mansour said， “This is a symbolic move， but also an important move of Palestine to solidify its position in the international community.”

The author believes Israel will see another opponent regardless of whether the founding of Palatine will be achieved in short term， that is， Iran， whose economic sanctions are about to be lift off and who supports Hamas. In August 2015， the Iranian top leader Khameneis international affairs advisor held a meeting with Hamas leaders in the Iranian embassy in Syria， where Iranian side reaffirmed its support for Palestinian peoples legitimate struggle to resist Israeli occupation and for national reconciliation among Palestinian sects. Second， the Assad family in Syria relies upon Iran and other countries to survive to date and Iran has taken a bold step to intervene in Syrian civil war in a semi-open manner. Third，Hamas and other radical anti-Israel organizations in Palestine， after being abandoned by Egypt and other countries in succession， have received support of Iran， which is critical to their future survival and development. Just one day after the national flag of Palestine flew high above the UN headquarters， the Iranian top leader Khamenei claimed that nuclear negotiations with the US are an exception and no further negations with the US will take place.

4. Conclusion

The author believes the continuous occurrence of the aforesaid series of significant events within half of year is by no means accidental， the fundamental cause of which lies in the declining capabilities of the US to control the Middle East， as evidenced by the beginning of Obama administration， except that the year 2015 became a period of substantial decline in the US influence over the Middle East.

The US signed the Iranian nuclear agreement out of concerns about Iranian nuclear tests and the rise of China， in that it is the American attempt to avoid direct involvement in Syrian civil war that reinforced the Russian determination to send it troops to Syria and it is the American attempt to ease its relation with the Islamic world that triggered off the accelerated process of the founding of Palestine.