Geeks Use Data to Win at Basketball數據分析助勇士崛起

文/本·霍伊爾 譯/高洋 審訂/任東升

By Ben Hoyle

金州勇士隊成為了美國體育界的傳奇，而將球隊帶向成功的方案，如同所有絕妙的計劃，初看有些瘋狂。

[2] 6年前，眾位高管在一位硅谷風險投資人的帶領下，以4.5億美元的歷史高價收購了一支曾有著聯盟第二差戰績的加州球隊。

[3]完成收購后，新管理層賣掉明星球員，以一名能力尚未得到認可的球員為核心重建球隊。這名球員高中畢業后被所有著名大學的球探所忽視，他腳踝易傷，而且1.91米的身高在籃球巨星面前也顯得矮小。

[4]經過數據分析后，勇士隊管理層認為目前球隊的打法不合理。幾十年來，灌籃是籃球的招牌投法，球員猛然一躍，直升籃邊，灌球入籃，精彩刺激，但卻只得兩分。

[5]勇士隊管理層于是重新設計了球隊的戰術打法——采取遠投策略，從三分線外，即距籃框大約24英尺（約7.3米）處投籃。

[6]這一戰術變化所取得的效果非同凡響，《華爾街日報》稱，勇士隊開創了“一種至今無人能破的籃球打法”。

[7]去年6月，勇士隊40年來首次贏得美國男子職業籃球聯賽（NBA）總冠軍，但真正讓美國球迷對勇士隊刮目相看的還是勇士隊本賽季的戰績。

[8]勇士隊離創造歷史僅一步之遙。如果勇士隊明天晚上在奧克蘭主場對陣孟菲斯灰熊隊的最后一場常規賽中取得第73場勝利，他們將超越1995—1996賽季邁克爾·喬丹所效力的芝加哥公牛隊，成為單賽季獲勝場次最多的球隊。能離創造歷史如此之近，勇士隊憑借的是命中了1000多個三分球，這是迄今為止NBA史上之最。

[9]斯蒂芬·庫里，作為勇士隊身材不高的球隊核心，現已家喻戶曉，并被廣泛認可為最佳球員。庫里還是廣告商心中夢寐以求的球員：他打球時面帶笑容，與大多數身材高大的NBA球員相比更像一個普通人，他還是一位稱職的父親，14歲時便與妻子在教會的一個青少年團體中相識。

[10]庫里有望在本賽季命中超過400個三分球，除他之外，還從未有人命中超過270個。28歲的庫里投籃命中率驚人，他在距籃框30至40英尺（約9至12米）處投球比普通NBA球員距籃框3至4英尺（約1米）投球還要準。他場均得分近30，命中率50%，其中三分命中率竟達到驚人的45%。

[11]球迷已經開始熱衷于觀看庫里的賽前熱身訓練，包括從球場內部過道和球員通道投籃。

[12]庫里的作用日益擴大，其他球隊隨之試圖加強對他的防守，這樣做則給庫里的隊友們創造空當，也會減少本方內線的人員投入。

[13]而這也意味著兩分球投籃的機會更多，但勇士隊專注于三分球出手，經常忽略這樣的機會。

[14]去年，勇士隊的第二遠投手克雷·湯普森成為除庫里外第一個單賽季命中270個三分球的球員。

[15]勇士隊主教練史蒂夫·科爾，曾5次隨所在球隊奪冠，其中包括創紀錄的公牛隊。他退役時的三分命中率為45.4%，為聯盟史上最高。

[16]科爾于2014年第一次受聘擔任NBA球隊主教練。這一聘用雖然對美國職業體育界來說不同尋常，但對具有前瞻性的風險投資界來說卻是家常便飯。勇士隊的大老板喬·拉科布正是來自風險投資領域。

[17]這是勇士隊管理層出奇招的又一案例，他們還曾拆除球隊總部建筑所有的內墻。夏威夷大學籃球隊前主教練吉布·阿諾德去年考察勇士隊的運營后，將其稱為“NBA中的谷歌”。 □

Like all the best plans, the scheme that turned the Golden State Warriors into the most compelling story in American sport looked a little crazy at first.

[2] Six years ago1本文發表于2016年4月12日。a group of executives led by a Silicon Valley venture capitalist paid a record $450 million to buy a Californian basketball team that had the second-worst record in the league.

[3] The new management then sold their star player and rebuilt the team around an unproven player who was ignored by all the major university recruiters when he left school, had a suspect ankle and, at 6ft 3in was dwarfed by the biggest names in the sport.

[4] Their guiding insight, driven by data, was that basketball was being played the wrong way. The slam dunk,where a player soars above the rim of the basket and plants the ball through the net, had for decades been the sport’s signature shot. But it is worth only two points.

[5] The executives at the Warriors redesigned their team to shoot from distance, from beyond the line, about 24ft from the basket, where shots count for three points.

[6] The results have been spectacular,with the team pioneering “a basketball style no one has yet figured out how to defeat”, according to The Wall Street Journal.

[7] Last June the Warriors became National Basketball Association (NBA)champions for the first time in 40 years,but it is this season’s results that has really made sports fans across America sit up and take notice.

[8] The team stands on the verge of making history. If they win for a 73rd time in their final regular season game against the Memphis Grizzlies at home in Oakland tomorrow night they will overtake Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls team of 1995-96 as winning the most victories in a season. The team has done it by sinking more than 1,000 three-point baskets, by far the most in NBA history.

[9] Stephen Curry, their diminutive playmaker, is now a household name and is widely acknowledged as the best player in the game. He is also an advertisers’ dream—he plays with a smile,looks more like a normal human being than most of the giants who hold sway in the NBA, and is a devoted father who met his wife at a church youth group when he was 14.

[10] Curry is on course to score more than 400 three-pointers this season.Nobody else has ever made more than 270. And his accuracy is astonishing:Curry, 28, shoots better from 30 to 40ft than the average NBA player does from three to four feet. He averages almost 30 points a game and scores with 50 per cent of his shots, including an astonishing 45 per cent of three-point attempts.

[11] Fans have begun turning up in droves to watch his warm-up routines,which include shooting from inside the corridor to the players’ tunnel.

[12] As Curry’s effectiveness has grown, teams have attempted to mark him more heavily, but doing so creates space for others and reduces congestion around the basket itself.

[13] That means that opportunities for two-point scores are also more frequent,although the team’s total commitment to three-pointers means that they often snub them anyway.

[14] Last year, Klay Thompson, the team’s second-best long-distance shooter, became the first person other than Mr Curry to score 270 three-pointers in a season.

[15] Their coach is Steve Kerr, a member of five NBA championship teams including the record-setting Bulls, who had retired with a 45.4 per cent shooting rate on three-pointers, the highest in league history.

[16] When he was hired in 2014 it was his first NBA coaching job, an appointment that was seen as extraordinary in professional US sports but would be routine in the forward-looking venture capitalism world from which Joe Lacob,the team’s main owner, comes.

[17] It was one more example of the management team’s unconventional approach, which has also included knocking down all the walls inside the team’s headquarters. Gib Arnold, a former University of Hawaii head coach, who spent time observing the Warriors operation last year,called them “Google in the NBA”. ■