A Brief History of China’s Economic Growth

文/托馬斯·赫斯特 譯/周坤

China’s meteoric1meteoric迅速成功的。rise over the past half century is one of the most striking examples of the impact of opening an economy up to global markets.

[2] Over that period the country has undergone a shift from a largely agrarian society to an industrial powerhouse.In the process it has seen sharp increases in productivity and wages that have allowed China to become the world’s second-largest economy.

[3] While the pace of growth over recent decades has been remarkable, it is also important to look at what the future might hold now that a large chunk of the gains from urbanization have been exhausted. A paper published by the NBER attempts to do just that, looking back over China’s growth story between 1953-2012 and using the data to model plausible scenarios for the country up to 2050.

半個世紀以來中國經濟增長速度“風馳電掣”，而這一切可以說是向全球市場開放的經濟體所受影響的最令人震撼的案例。

[2]在這段時間，中國經歷了從以農業為主到擁有強大工業的轉變，生產力和工資都實現了迅速增長，成為世界第二大經濟體。

[3]盡管近幾十年來中國發展速度驚人，對于中國經濟的未來發展做一些展望也同樣重要，因為都市化進程的紅利已經用盡大半。美國國家經濟研究局發表的一篇論文嘗試回顧中國在1953—2012年間經濟發展的歷程并利用研究所得數據對中國當前至2050年的經濟形勢進行建模預測。

Lessons from history

[4] The first two decades following the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 was marked by periods of substantial growth in per capita GDP growth, the growth of output per person, followed by sharp reversals.

The authors of the NBER paper suggest this represented the success of the First Five-Year Plan, during which “6000 Soviet advisers helped establish and operate the 156 large-scale capital intensive Soviet-assisted projects”, significantly increasing the pace and quality (productivity) of industrialization in the country.However, it was followed by the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), which undid many of the gains through worsening of incentives by banning material incentives and restricting markets.

[5] These reforms were then unwound2unwind放松。between 1962 and 1966, leading to another period of productivity and per capita GDP growth, before the events of the “Cultural Revolution” set the economy back once again.

[6] According to the authors, the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party in December 1978 was the defining moment in shifting the country from its unsteady early economic trajectory on to a more sustainable path. It laid the groundwork for future growth by introducing reforms that allowed farmers to sell their produce in local markets and began the shift from collective farming to the household responsibility system.

歷史經驗

[4] 1949年中華人民共和國成立后的前兩個10年中，人均國內生產總值（即人均產出）增長顯著，之后急轉直下。

美國國家經濟研究局的論文作者指出，這代表第一個五年計劃取得了成功，在這期間“6000名蘇聯顧問幫助中國建立并運行了156個大的資本密集型蘇聯援助項目”，顯著推動了中國的工業化進程，提升了工業化品質（生產力）。但是，在緊接著的“大躍進”（1958—1962），由于政府對物質激勵的禁止以及對市場的嚴格限制，民眾的生產積極性遭遇了重擊，于是許多前期取得的成果都被毀之殆盡了。

[5]好在1962至1966年間，“大躍進”時期的改革得到了及時的糾正，社會生產力和人均國內生產總值又出現了復蘇性增長。之后的“文革”讓經濟再度陷入低迷。

[6]論文作者表示，1978年12月召開的中國共產黨第十一屆三中全會標志著中國從不穩定的早期經濟發展軌道邁向了更穩定的可持續發展道路。允許農民在當地市場自由售賣自己生產的農產品，改集體制農業生產模式為農業生產責任制，實行包產到戶，這些都為將來的經濟增長奠定了基石。

[7] A year later the Law on Chinese-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures was introduced, allowing foreign capital to enter China helping to boost regional economies although it took until the mid-1980s for the government to gradually ease pricing restrictions and allow companies to retain profits and set up their own wage structures. This not only helped to boost GDP from an annual average of 6% between 1953-1978 to 9.4% between 1978-2012 but also increased the pace of urbanization as workers were drawn from the countryside into higher-paying jobs in cities.

[8] This process of market liberalization led to the establishment of China as a major global exporter. It eventually allowed for the reopening of the Shanghai stock exchange in December 1990 for the first time in over 40 years and,ultimately, to China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation.

[9] These reforms had a significant impact both on per capita GDP and the pace of the falling share of the labour force working in agriculture.

What the future holds

[10] The good news for the global economy is that the authors of the NBER paper claim that the Chinese economy can continue to see relatively robust levels of growth, albeit significantly lower than we have seen over recent decades.

[7]一年后《中外合資經營企業法》誕生，允許外國資本進入中國市場幫助促進地區經濟發展。盡管該法已經實施生效，但直到1980年代中期，中國政府才逐漸放開價格管制，允許企業保留利潤并建立自己的工資體系。這不僅令國內生產總值從1953—1978年的平均6%的年增長率提升到1978—2012年的9.4%，同時由于高收入工作的吸引，人們不斷從農村涌入城市務工，從而大大加快了都市化的進程。

[8]市場自由化的過程把中國打造成了全球貿易出口大國，促成了1990年12月上海證券交易所在40多年后首次重張，并最終促使中國加入了世貿組織。

[9]這些改革不僅對中國的人均國內生產總值產生了重大的影響，還推動了中國農業勞力比重下降的進程。

未來經濟發展前景

[10]作者在論文中提到，對于世界經濟，令人欣慰的是盡管中國經濟可能明顯不及之前幾十年增長那么快， 但仍將繼續保持相對強勁的增長水平。

[11] While the average growth rate of real GDP between 1978-2012 has been an impressive 9.4%, that figure could decline to between 7-8% between 2012-2024 in the authors’ base case. This is signi ficantly higher than most commentators believe is likely given clear signs of a slowing economy in China’s recent economic data.

[12] Of course, such long-range projections should be treated with a great deal of caution but the trajectory of travel is already clear—growth is slowing.

[13] This is to be expected for an economy of China’s size, as compounding makes it harder and harder to deliver the same rate of growth from a higher level of GDP.

[14] Moreover, the factors that have driven the country’s expansion over recent decades will also have to shift in their relative importance. For example,the numbers of people making the shift from agricultural jobs into higher value add city jobs are likely to decrease and the process of urbanization will therefore not be able to add as much to output per worker as it has done in the recent past.

[11]基于作者的論證，雖然1978—2012年間的真實國內生產總值的平均增長速度達到了令人震驚的9.4%，但這個數字很可能在2012—2024年間跌至7%—8%。鑒于中國最近經濟增長明顯放緩的種種跡象，這個數據比很多經濟評論家的估計還是高出許多。

[12]當然，在跨度如此大的時間范圍內對中國經濟做出預測必須極為慎重，但是整個經濟發展的軌跡已經很清晰——增長正在逐漸放緩。

[13]對于像中國這樣龐大的經濟體，這是難以避免的趨勢，因為國內生產總值越高，復合增長就會讓其越來越難呈現出恒定速度的增長。

[14]而且，近幾十年來驅使中國經濟快速發展的諸多因素也將變得不那么重要。比如，選擇進城務工的農村人口數量可能會減少，而都市化進程對人均產出的提升作用將大不如前。

[15] Also, the catch-up process that has delivered significant productivity growth in the country is also likely to slow as Chinese industry gets closer to the technological sophistication of its Western counterparts, while the initial gains of adding hundreds of millions of workers to the global labour supply are also quickly fading.

[16] Instead of allowing low-cost exports to drive growth, China will increasingly have to rely on expanding its own domestic demand to meet the government’s ambitious growth targets. Achieving this, however, will require further reforms to release Chinese consumers’spending power and build the foundations of a more balanced economy. ■

[15]此外，曾給中國帶來生產力顯著增長效應的“追趕強國”進程很可能放緩，因為在科技精工化上中國的工業已經非常接近西方國家，而讓數億工人進入全球勞動力市場帶來的初始收益也在快速減少。

[16]相比以低成本貿易輸出來帶動經濟增長，中國政府將會越來越重視通過拉動內需來實現雄心勃勃的經濟增長目標。只不過，要實現這樣的目標，需要進一步推動經濟改革，釋放中國消費者的消費能力，建立一種更加平衡的經濟。 □