涓流細(xì)語(yǔ)

編輯：賈朋群

“If you look back in time to see when our forecast scale was roughly 30 percent less than today, it was 1980.”

“如果你想時(shí)間倒流，感覺(jué)一下我們的預(yù)報(bào)水準(zhǔn)較今天大約降低30%，那就回到1980年。”

——針對(duì)3月美國(guó)政府拍賣5G頻段一事，NOAA執(zhí)行局長(zhǎng)Neil Jacobs指出，這一舉措將降低30%的預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確性，相當(dāng)于40年預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的幅度。他在美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)如此向議員們解釋拍賣頻率與預(yù)報(bào)的關(guān)系。

“The mission is not being designed to police people’s emissions… I think what countries need is a tool and transparency in observations of emissions at city scale and even down to power plant scale. They need information to inform policy decisions.”

“項(xiàng)目的設(shè)計(jì)并非旨在監(jiān)督人類的排放……我想各國(guó)需要的是一個(gè)工具，以及在城市尺度甚或發(fā)電廠尺度上排放觀測(cè)的透明度。他們需要信息來(lái)支持決策。”

——近日，歐盟開(kāi)始謀劃發(fā)射監(jiān)測(cè)各國(guó)二氧化碳排放的衛(wèi)星陣列。如果這一計(jì)劃得以實(shí)施，將于2025年升空的該衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)系統(tǒng)能給出更為詳盡的全球排放圖，并有望更好地解決國(guó)家報(bào)告與實(shí)際觀測(cè)的排放量之間存在差距等問(wèn)題。談及本項(xiàng)目的意義，負(fù)責(zé)設(shè)計(jì)和實(shí)施該計(jì)劃的歐空局地球和排放部負(fù)責(zé)人Mark Drinkwater如此進(jìn)行了解釋。

“The 2019 Refinement provides an updated and sound scientific basis for supporting the preparation and continuous improvement of national greenhouse gas inventories.”

“2019年修訂給出更新和充足的科學(xué)基礎(chǔ)，以支持國(guó)家溫室氣體清單的準(zhǔn)備和持續(xù)改進(jìn)。”

——作為IPCC AR6周期最重要的評(píng)估活動(dòng)之一，聯(lián)合國(guó)更新版溫室氣體排放指南日前發(fā)布。針對(duì)這一工作的意義，IPCC專門(mén)工作組聯(lián)合主席Kiyoto Tanabe如是說(shuō)。

“ESA is happy to include the TRUTHS mission in our package of programme proposals for Space19+. It is a very interesting mission that will bring many benefits to better understand climate change and offer well-calibrated measurements for crossreference with other missions. It is now up to ESA Member States to take up this offer and participate in this exciting programme.”

“ESA很高興在我們提交給Space19+的一攬子計(jì)劃建議中包括了TRUTHS。這是一個(gè)很有意義的項(xiàng)目，在更好認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化和向其他使命提供校準(zhǔn)后觀測(cè)用于相互比較等方面受益。現(xiàn)在就等ESA成員國(guó)認(rèn)可這個(gè)項(xiàng)目并加入這個(gè)令人激動(dòng)的項(xiàng)目之中。”

——?dú)W空局在地球觀測(cè)方面最新提出T R U T H S（Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- Studies，可追蹤輻射線測(cè)定支持地球和太陽(yáng)研究）項(xiàng)目建議，并以提交給計(jì)劃在2019年11月27—28日在西班牙召開(kāi)的ESA的Space19+（空間19+）部長(zhǎng)委員會(huì)討論。ESA的地球觀測(cè)項(xiàng)目主任Josef Aschbacher如此熱情為T(mén)RUTHS項(xiàng)目敲邊鼓。

“In areas like Europe, C-band is not that popula. But in those areas where you have a lot of rain, satellite networks still very much rely on C-band and if that part of the spectrum were to be allocated to 5G, it would be quite a challenge for the region to adapt.。I see less of a problem with the higher bands because they are typically not very much used or they haven’t been allocated to any defense organizations.”

“在歐洲這樣的區(qū)域，C波段不是很流行。但是在降水很多的區(qū)域，衛(wèi)星探測(cè)網(wǎng)非常依賴于C波段，如果該波段的一部分分配給5G，這些區(qū)域適應(yīng)起來(lái)就是很大的挑戰(zhàn)。目前更高譜段的問(wèn)題還不多，這些譜段沒(méi)有被頻繁使用，也還沒(méi)有分配給任何安全組織。”

——近日因美國(guó)拍賣的5G頻段與氣象衛(wèi)星使用的頻段重復(fù)而帶來(lái)的爭(zhēng)執(zhí)，是否在5G已經(jīng)開(kāi)始實(shí)施的亞洲也存在？國(guó)際媒體報(bào)道了韓國(guó)技術(shù)人員的上述看法，其中C波段是指從4 Gigahertz（GHz）到8 GHz頻段。

“We will set ourselves up to essentially crowdsource forecast model development work. We don’t claim the wins. We’re not actively out there saying look how good we did.”

“我們將采取本質(zhì)上為眾包的模式開(kāi)發(fā)工作。我們不宣稱勝利。我們并沒(méi)有熱衷于說(shuō)，看看我們做得有多好。”

——美國(guó)NOAA換代預(yù)報(bào)模式GFS-FV3，在經(jīng)過(guò)漫長(zhǎng)的試驗(yàn)運(yùn)行后即將投入業(yè)務(wù)化運(yùn)行，NOAA執(zhí)行局長(zhǎng)Neil Jacobs針對(duì)這一事件與媒體進(jìn)行了交流。就新模式依然沒(méi)有超過(guò)兩大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手（歐洲中期預(yù)報(bào)中心和和英國(guó)氣象局）的模式，執(zhí)行局長(zhǎng)表示認(rèn)可，即換代后的模式，在世界上依然位于第三位，但這位曾經(jīng)在松下公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)模式開(kāi)發(fā)工作的執(zhí)行局長(zhǎng)認(rèn)為，低調(diào)的FV3也帶來(lái)了改變的契機(jī)。

“It is a disaster for the United States to remove itself voluntarily from the international conversation around global warming pollutant reduction, even for 2 years. We don’t have 2 years to sit on our hands. We don’t have 2 years to fail to lead [on this issue]. Every single month that goes by that we don’t make the decisions necessary to save this planet from existential harm is a month that we get closer to the point of no return [from the impacts of climate change].”

“對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，撤出國(guó)際全球變化減少污染條約是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難，即使是剛剛兩年。這兩年里我們沒(méi)有參與。這兩年里我們喪失了[對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題的]領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)。過(guò)去的每個(gè)月里，我們沒(méi)能做出挽救出現(xiàn)的傷害這個(gè)星球的決策，也就是一步一步接近[氣候變化影響的]不可返回點(diǎn)。”

——2017年6月1日，特朗普宣布美國(guó)退出氣候變化《巴黎協(xié)定》。兩年后美國(guó)各界審視這一決策時(shí)，大多表達(dá)對(duì)這一決定的失望之情。美國(guó)參議院Chris Murphy在媒體上公開(kāi)批評(píng)這樣的做法，具有很好的代表性。

（from back cover）

Advance Report 2019: Meteorology Making Cities Safer

88 Wang Yanqing, Liu Dunxun, Xu Wenwen/ Reform and Development Practices and Outlook on Shenzhen Meteorology

94 Lan Hongping, Liu Dunxun, Sun Shiyang, Wei Xiaolin, Xu Ting/ The Practice and Prospect of Constructing Precise and Intelligent Forecasting Service System in Shenzhen

100 Chen Yuanzhao, Lan Hongping, Liu Kun/ Recent Development of Nowcasting Techniques in Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau

108 He Yuhua, Liu Donghua, Zhang Lijie, Mao Xia/Development and Outlook of the Meteorological Informatization in Shenzhen

112 Li Lei/ Urban Climate Services for Sustainable Development of Shenzhen Municipality

119 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Shen Jie, Zhang Jie/ The Effect of Industrial Policy on Air Quality Improvement of Shenzhen in Recent 39 Years

124 Jiang Yin, Chen Xunlai, Zhu Jiangshan, Wang Deli, Chen Yuanzhao/ Application of Shenzhen Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System in Heavy Rainfall of South China

132 Chen Xunlai, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhao Chunyang, Zhang Ke/ Application of Gradient Boost Decision Tree in Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

138 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Liang Biling, Wang Mingjie, Feng Bingfeng, Chen Linfeng/ Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Background Circulations of Local PM2.5Pollution Episodes in the Pearl River Delta

144 Jiang Chenglin, Huang Haohui, Chen Wenchao, Zhang Guangyu/ Turbulence Characteristics of the Landing Process of Severe Typhoon Nesat (1117)

149 Zhang Chunsheng, Lu Chao, Zhong Xiaoyong, Gao Ruiquan, Liu Aiming, Gu Ruichang / Preliminary Analysis of Near-Surface Flux Data from Meteorological Gradient Observation Tower in Shenzhen

153 Wang Deli, Kong Fanyou, Wang Hong, Chen Xunlai/Effect of the Dual-Polarization Radar Data Assimilation on Rainfall Simulation of Typhoon Hato

160 Zhang Li, Liang Biling, Li lei/ Ozone Pollution Meteorological Condition Index in Shenzhen and Its Operational Application

166 Chen Shenpeng/ Multi-Year Variation of Precipitation and Rain Island Effect in Shenzhen

171 Lu Xiaoxiong, Li Qinglan, Chen Shenpeng, Zhang Kai,Sun Liqun, Chen Qian, Zhang Lijie/ Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Characteristics in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2017

179 He Lunkai, Sun Liqun, Li Qinglan, Xie Kun, Wang Shuxin,Wang Deli, Xu Qian/ Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Temperature in Shenzhen

185 Du Yaodong, Duan Hailai, Liu Chang, Luo Xiaoling/Research Advances in Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area

190 Cai Ran, Luo Xin, Gao Yan, Du Qijiang, Zhuang Hongbo,Peng Xiaohong, Fu Chunhua/ Induced Current and Charge at the Top of High Buildings During Lightning Return Stroke

195 Yang Yuexin, Guo Hongbo, Qin Zilong, Su Linzhi, Luo xin/ The Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning Based on Multi-Source Data in Shenzhen

199 Wei Xiaolin, Chen Xunlai, Jiang Yin, Li Hui, Mao Xia/ A Novel Crowd Innovation Mechanism for Intelligent Short-Term Heavy Rain Nowcasting

204 Zeng Qingfeng, Gao Ruiquan, Wen Jingmin, Li Lei, Xu Lei, Tang Yang, Lai Xin/ The Management Mode of Urban Unit Microclimate Environment Observation Based on Internet of Things

209 Gao Ruiquan, Zheng Hui, Zhong Xiaoyong, Luo Hongyan, Ma Xiaoxin, Liu Xing, Xia Jianbo/ Realization and Preliminary Application of Intelligent Second-Level Observation at Automatic Weather Station

213 Deng Ping, Zhang Qinghua, Zhang Yulong/ A Parallel I/O Optimization Technique for Improving the Performance of Meteorological Numerical Models

218 Zhang Lijie, Hu Juan, Zhang Kai, Li You, Zheng Hui/Classification and Characteristics of Meteorological Research Achievements in Shenzhen in Recent 10 Years

222 Li Hailong, Cao Mei, Wen Fengjie/ Construction of Intelligent Meteorology Service Model Based on the Behavior of Shenzhen Meteorology Mobile and Internet Users

225 Sun Shiyang, Shen Danna, Dong Hao/ Exploration of Meteorological Forecast Service Model Based on Quality Development

230 Hu Juan, Li You, Zhang Lijie, Zhang Kai, Zheng Hui/Design and Prospect of Online Management Platform for Multi-Approach Meteorological Service Data

234 Wang Shuxin, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhang Shuting/ Acquisition and Application of Social Observation Data Based on Web Crawler Technology

238 Zhai Xiao, Xue Huaxing/ Application of the Monitoring Method of Query Normal Height in Shenzhen Airport

240 Luo Xin, Cai Ran, Zhuang Hongbo, Su Linzhi, Guo Hongbo, Yang Yuexin/ Design and Realization of Lightning Early Warning Service System Based on Urban Comprehensive Observation

243 Guo Hongbo, Zhuang Hongbo, Du Qijiang, Cai Ran,Yang Yuexin/ Thoughts on the Construction of Lightning Protection Safety Management Information System