International Security Situation in 2019: Peaceful Situation Maintained but Chaos and Crises Emerged Frequently

International Situation

International Security Situation in 2019: Peaceful Situation Maintained but Chaos and Crises Emerged Frequently

By Meng Xiangqing, CPAPD Executive Council Member, professor and major general of the School of National Security of the University of National Defense, and Han Yanzhe, Ph. D. Candidate, the School of National Security of the University of National Defense In the year 2019, the overall situation of world peace and stability remains unchanged. The relationship between major powers is characterized by both increased confrontation and friction, as well as maintained competitive engagement and selective cooperation, and the bottom line of no military conflict and no war is still held between major powers. However, the international security situation in 2019 is full of chaos and frequent crises, which is highlighted in the further increase of global sources of turbulence and risk points, the more complex and severe regional security situation is, and the more difficult the global security governance will be. Political and social unrest in some countries is in danger of spreading to their whole region and even to the entire world. The Cold War rivalry between major powers is seldom seen in the past 30 years. The more confrontational and offensive military strategies introduced by some countries have made the regional and global security cooperation more difficult. Great turbulence, great differentiation, great competition and great reform became the themes of 2019. The international security situation takes on the new characteristics of "great changes unseen in a century".

Political and social unrest spilled over to various regions and the global security situation deteriorated obviously

In the year 2019, there were frequent unrests around the world, especially in Latin America where the political and social unrest within one country was spreading to many countries in its region. In addition, the turmoil in West Asia, North Africa, Europe, South Asia and other regions were on the rise, which significantly worsened the global security situation.

The unrest in the Middle East and North Africa was somewhat intensified. From March to April, Algeria witnessed continuous outbreak of waves of large-scale protests, forcing the former president who had been in power for nearly 20 years resign; in April, a military coup took place in Sudan, having ended the 30-year Bashir era; the military conflict in Libya continuously escalated, and the situation in Syria continuously deteriorated, and anti-government demonstrations broke out successively in Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and other countries, some of which were larger in scale than before. The European region was also fraught with crisis and uncertainty. In October, the large-scale demonstration around Brexit in Britain once paralyzed London's traffic; the "Black Friday" strike in Italy piled up rubbish in Rome; the sentence passed by the Supreme Court of Spain on the former senior officials of Catalonia alone triggered the most serious demonstration and protest in decades; in November, the "yellow vest" movement in France led to the largest-scale riot in Paris in 50 years. In South Asia, India's largest unrest and riot burst out since Modi came to power in 2014 due to the promotion of the citizenship amendment since December, resulting in at least 23 deaths and 1500 arrests in just 10 days. Modi publicly called for an end to violence, and backed police saying that "hate me if you want, but don't hate India.".

Looking at the political chaos of many countries in the world in 2019, the direct causes are economic downturn, political corruption, failure of reform, policy mistakes, contradictions among ethnic groups, and major country intervention, etc. While the deep-rooted causes are the widening gap between the rich and the poor together with the aggravated social unfairness brought about by the globalization, the decline of national governance ability, the long-term accumulation and intensification of political, economic, social and other structural contradictions. The confluence and constant spread of nationalism and populism, and the accumulation and overlapping of various factors have led to violent turbulence in some countries and regions.

Traditional security issues spiral further, global strategic stability suffers frequent impacts

In 2019, the world's traditional security issues had spiraled further. In addition to Russia, the military expenditure of major countries had reached a new height, the artificial intelligence arms race had shown some signs, the withdrawal of the United States from arms control treaties such as INF, is causing serious consequences, space war had also been put on the military strategic agenda of major countries, and conflicts and wars in the Gulf region continued, which make it difficult to form a global strategic stability situation.

Global military spending remains high. According to the 2019 report of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, the global military expenditure is maintained high for two consecutive years. The total global military expenditure increased to US$1.82 trillion in 2018, 2.6% higher than that in 2017, more than twice the growth rate of the same period in 2017, having reached the highest level since 1988. Currently, the latest statistics of the Institute are not yet published, but according to the published military budget of major countries and regions, the global military expenditure is likely to reach a new height, and will continue to stay at a high level in 2020.

In the year 2018, the U.S. military spending increased for the first time in seven years, having reached US$649 billion, an increase of 4.6% over that for 2017. According to the U.S. Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, the total defense expenditure is US$717 billion. In the Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020, the U.S. defense spending further increased to US$738 billion, an increase of about 2.8% over that for the previous fiscal year. The United States not only maintained its military superiority with the world's highest military expenditure of more than US$700 billion per year, but also constantly presses NATO and Asia-Pacific allies to further increase their defense expenditure so as to share the costs. Japan's defense expenditure in FY2019 is 5.2986 trillion yen (about US$ 47.74 billion), an increase of 2.1% compared with FY2018 with growth for 7 years running and it will reach 5.31 trillion yen (about US$ 48.7 billion ) in 2020, setting a new record. The ROK Ministry of National Defense announced that the national defense budget for FY 2019 would be 46.7 trillion won (about US$ 41.6 billion ), an increase of 8.2% compared with that for FY2018, the highest increase since 2008; it will reach 50.15 trillion won (about 42 billion US dollars) in 2020, again up7.4%. India's military budget for FY2019 was 302 million rupees (about US$42.697 billion), an increase of 8.1% year on year. Germany's military spending for FY 2019 was 47.9 billion euros (about US$ 52.7 billion), an increase of 24.5% over that for 2018, and is expected to reach 50.3 billion euros (about US$56 billion) for 2020. France's defense budget reached 35.9 billion euros (about US $42.2 billion) for FY 2019, an increase of 5% year on year. Among major countries in the world, Russia is an exception. In the past two years, its military expenditure was continuously reduced, was about US$ 47.13 billion in 2018, with a reduction of about 5%, and continued to be cut to about US$43 billion. Russian President Vladimir Putin explained, this (military spending cut) is not due to the government's inaction, but based on the fact that we need to strengthen national security through a series of measures as planned, as well as maintain the update of weapons and equipment and hardware. Now we have achieved these goals and have passed the peak period." With the increasing military expenditure of the main strategic opponents, the United States and NATO countries, Russia's military expenditure is on the decrease which is somewhat unconventional. According to international public opinion, Russia's economy is in a continuous downturn, so the government in shortage of money is probably the main reason.

The arms race of artificial intelligence (AI) is in the ascendant. On February 11, 2019, President Trump signed the "American Artificial Intelligence Initiative", stressing that the continuous leadership of the United States in the field of artificial intelligence is essential for maintaining the U.S. economy and national security. On June 21, the Trump Administration released an update of the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy. The development and application of artificial intelligence technology in the U.S. military are carried out between the Department of Defense and various services. The AI center of the U.S. Department of Defense announced the first five-year plan, which is to "establish a common AI operational base within the scope of the Department of Defense by using cloud technology, including tools, shared data, reusable technology, processes and professional knowledge, so as to achieve rapid delivery and expansion of human intelligence functions". In the next five years to come, US$ 1.7 billion will be invested to cooperate with relevant units of the U.S. military and 17 other U.S. institutions and jointly promote about 600 artificial intelligence projects. In the application of artificial intelligence technology, the U.S. military is developing an artificial intelligence shell that can more accurately carry out long-range targeting; and the Navy is carrying out a "ghost fleet" plan with 10 unmanned ships.

As early as 2015, Russian military AI technology had passed the actual combat test in the Syrian battlefield, and its self-developed land battle robots can perform patrol, reconnaissance, demining, short-range fire support and other tasks. The Navy's unmanned underwater vehicle can do group reconnaissance in underwater and seabed environment, search for suspicious objects and destroy enemy targets with bombs. Especially in the development of military artificial intelligence UAV, Russia is unique and in the leading position in the world.

Meantime, other major countries are unwilling to be outdone. Britain, France, Germany, India and other countries placed the military application of artificial intelligence in a prominent position in their national strategies, established full-time institutions and increased investment. International public opinion generally believes that artificial intelligence will dominate the future battlefield, and intelligent attacks begin to change the form of war.

The withdrawal of the United States from the INF treaty is causing serious consequences. After withdrawing from the treaty, the United States immediately launched the chain process of "R & D – deployment -- practical employment" of medium range missiles, and conducted two consecutive land-based medium-range missiles pilot tests in August- December 2019, thus opening the "Pandora's box" of the new arms race. To this end, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered the development of sea-based long-range "caliber" cruise missile system, an updated land-based version as well as land-based long-range hypersonic missile systems by 2020 as a response to the U.S. withdrawal. At present, of the three pillars of bilateral nuclear disarmament between the United States and the Soviet Union / Russia - the INF Treaty, the ABM Treaty, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – two have lost validity. The only surviving new strategic arms reduction treaty will expire in 2021 (can be extended for five years), but is also in danger of losing effect, because Trump claims that "it is another 'bad' treaty". The U.S. withdrawal will further stimulate other countries to develop medium range missiles, greatly increasing the risk of confrontation and conflict in the Eurasian region.

Space warfare is put on the military strategic agenda of great powers. The United States continues to accelerate the pace of space militarization. In 2019, the United States speeded up the space militarization, including significantly increasing investment in space projects, accelerating the establishment of space organizations, etc.; actively developing offensive space weapons, including unmanned space shuttles, anti-satellite weapons and space-based offensive weapon systems, etc.; secretly conducting space war exercises, the U.S. space command began space exercises within 10 days after its establishment, reflecting the U.S. advanced forwardness of pushing militarization of space and the urgency of dealing with space warfare. In December 2019, the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives passed the "National Defense Authorization Act For Fiscal Year 2020", deciding to establish a space force and setting it as the sixth large military branch in the United States. Meanwhile, the United States is also trying to push NATO and its allies to march into space. NATO made a decision to establish a space operational agency at the Belgian foreign ministers' meeting and the London Summit in November, thus opening up the trail for NATO's space militarization. On the surface, this is the first time that NATO has entered the space field under the pressure of the United States; in fact, this is also an important step for the United States to promote the militarization of space. The purpose is to incubate a new round of military competition in the space field by kidnapping NATO and its allies onto its war vehicles to move into the space. In July 2019, France announced the establishment of a space command within its Air Force and its development into a space force in the future. Japan's 2019 defense plan outline also listed space as a key strategic military domain, and announced that it is expected to establish the first self-defense space force of about 70 personal in 2020 to cooperate with the U.S. military. India has successfully destroyed a low orbit satellite with ballistic missiles, and Prime Minister Modi announced that India "has successfully entered the ranks of space major powers". Space has become a new battleground for the arms race.

In addition, known as the "oasis of peace", the Gulf region suffered intensified confrontation and the increasing risk of military conflict. As the Iranian issue heats up again, the U.S. - Iran relationship continues to be tense, and the risk of military conflict outbreak increases; there are several attacks on commercial ships and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and the navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz is seriously threatened, and many countries responded with military escort; the influence of the Yemeni war continues to spill over, posing multiple threats to the territory of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The regional arms races are escalating, and various countries are competing to buy armaments and developing national defense industries, so the development of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and unmanned drones is in danger of getting out of control.

Unilateralism and protectionism continue to ravage and major country security relations are retrogressing

In 2019, the Trump Administration continued to adhere to the "America First" policy, vigorously implemented bullying policies featured by unilateralism and protectionism, and deepened the rift with traditional allies. At the same time, the game-play between the United States and Russia in the Middle East is more complex and dramatic, and the strategic competition with China is also increasing. A series of actions of the United States make the security relations of major powers suffer a strong impact.

The rift between traditional allies deepened.The difference between United States and Europe over trade, Iran's nuclear issue, Middle East strategy and other issues still remain while their quarreling continues. Europe is even more dissatisfied with Trump's unilateral actions such as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the Comprehensive Plan on the Iranian Nuclear Issue, requiring Europe to pay "protection fees", recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and having the embassy moved into it, and challenging the international trade system. In his speech at the Centennial Commemoration of the First World War, French President Nicolas Macron denounced Trump's unilateral bullying policy and called on Europe to strengthen itself and establish a unified European army. Trump is very dissatisfied with this, sent out five tweets in a row lashed out at Macron. In August 2019, the United States, ignoring the European demands, announced its formal withdrawal from the INF treaty, which not only gave its European allies a sharp slap in the face, further clouded the relationship between the United States and Europe, but also opened the "Pandora's box" of the arms race, making a major historical negative turning point in international arms control so the global arms control system is in danger of collapse. In November, the United States announced the withdrawal of troops from northern Syria without briefing Europe. Turkey sent troops to Syria without consulting with NATO partners. Thus, Macron made the "NATO brain dead" judgment, like a "thunder", which sounded a new alarm to the trans-Atlantic alliance. In December, the UK in London held a summit on the 70th anniversary of the founding of NATO, compared with grand celebrations in both 1999 and 2009, the summit wrapped up in a low-key situation. At the summit, the United States and Europe were tit for tat on the issue of military expenditure; Turkey was determined to purchase Russia's S-400 air defense missile systems, having aggravated internal contradictions within NATO. Meantime, the farce of Brexit continued to stir up the relationship between Britain and Europe, and "Brexit" became "dragging down Europe". At present, in the face of the "increasingly unimaginable" United States, the seemingly harmony relationship between France and Germany but actually at variance, the Brexit" dilemma of Britain, and the small and medium-sized members who are on the lookout, NATO is facing unprecedented challenges in terms of strategic positioning, strategic guidance, development planning and action measures. Although fundamentally speaking, the relationship between the United States and its traditional allies is unlikely to break up at present, yet the consequences of its bullying policies such as unilateralism and protectionism are increasingly obvious. It has become an indisputable fact that the Allies do not trust each other sincerely, their differences expand, the rifts deepen and gradually move further away from each other.

The game-play between the United States and Russia in the Middle East is more complicated and dramatic. Russia, taking advantage of the opportunity of U.S. drones being shot down, U.S. -Iraq confrontation escalating, U.S. withdrawal from northern Syria and abandoning its long-term allies' Kurdish armed forces, has become more active in the Middle East affairs and reached a consensus with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the establishment of a "security zone" on the border between Turkey and Syria. Russia's skillful mediations have made all parties to the conflict - the Assad regime, Turkey and the former pro-U.S. Kurdish armed forces -- have to rely on Russia, so that Russia has not only consolidated its strategic fortress in the Middle East, but also expanded its "circle of friends". In October 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin successfully visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other U.S. allies in the Middle East, and received a super profile reception, making Russia's special position in the Middle East once again prominent.

The strategic competition between China and the United States had intensified. At the end of 2019, after more than a year of arduous negotiations, China and the United States finally reached the first stage of trade agreement, which is good news for both countries and the world economy as well. But looking back at China-U.S. relations in 2019, it can be said that a chilly current surges. The U.S. policy toward China was becoming more competitive, confrontational, tough and irrational: a "cold war of science and technology" is launched against China, and many high-tech enterprises of China are included in the "blacklist"; the FBI and other security agencies had taken investigation and restriction measures against Chinese scholars and Chinese students, which disrupted normal cultural exchanges; under the promotion of the "hawks", the United States, in order to isolate China, even forced various countries in the world, including allies, to choose a side between the United States and China; the United States also constantly interfered in China's internal affairs on issues such as Taiwan-, Hong Kong- and Xinjiang-related matters, and vigorously pursued power politics and bullying policies. The year 2019 is the year when the new U.S. strategy on China had initially taken shape. The basic characteristics of the strategy are: focusing on competition, prioritizing on security, working in multiple ways to block China's development. In this context, increasing competition with China, limiting and curbing China's development seem to have become a new "political correctness" in the United States. China –U.S. relations are facing a new major test.

In 2019, the relationship between the United States and its allies was full of contradictions, the relationship between the United States and Russia continuously remained tense, and the relationship between China and the United States continued to decline. The exchanges and cooperation between major powers were significantly reduced, competition and confrontation had risen sharply, and uncertainties continued to increase, which had led to the retrogressing international security cooperation and the aggravated global security governance difficulties.

The security environment around China is stable and gets better in general, but there are increasing potential hot spots and uncertainties

In the year 2019, the overall stability of China's surrounding security environment was maintained, and there were no major disputes and conflicts in Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and some hot spots became cooled down significantly. The biggest highlight is that China-Russia relations upgraded to a new level of "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era", and the strategic mutual trust between the two countries reached a new height, providing strong strategic support for China to consolidate its peripheral security and global stability. On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the DPRK, General Secretary Xi Jinping visited the DPRK, consolidating and inheriting the traditional friendship between China and the DPRK, making a new important contribution to maintaining the stability of the Peninsula and settling the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue peacefully. China and Japan had reached ten-point consensus on improving and developing bilateral relations. The situation in the East China Sea is relatively calm, and the two sides have basically maintained the trend of "dual coexistence and joint management" of the Diaoyu Islands. In October 2019, the leaders of China and India held the second meeting, which set the basic tone for maintaining the stable and good relations between the two countries, opened up a prospect for creating a new situation of mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, and basically stabilized the border between the two countries. The protocol on upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area had come into full force. The first round of review of the single draft negotiating text of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea has been completed ahead of schedule, and the consultation on the Code of Conduct has been comprehensively promoted. The relations between China and ASEAN have entered a new stage of all-round development, and the disputes in the South China Sea are still under control, without major friction or conflict. In December, the 8th China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting was held in Chengdu, China. The three sides jointly issued the outlook of China-Japan-ROK cooperation for the next decade, emphasizing the joint promotion of regional development, prosperity, peace and stability. In 2019, China has comprehensively strengthened its relations with neighboring countries, so as to promote the surrounding security environment to become stable and better.

Meantime, the instable and uncertain factors of China's surrounding security have increased, and the possibility of some potential hot spots getting out of control and heated up is always in existence, among which the biggest instable and uncertain factors are the deep involvement and strong intervention from major powers outside of the region. In 2019, the U.S. Department of Defense and the State Department issued relevant policy reports on the "Indo-Pacific strategy" separately. The United States, Japan, India and Australia consultation mechanism had been upgraded to the ministerial level. The economic part of "Indo-Pacific strategy" focuses on infrastructure, energy security and digital economy, the aim of which is to hedge the Belt and Road Initiative and to attach more importance to the important geographical links, such as Mekong River Basin countries, the Bay of Bengal countries and Pacific island countries. Taiwan is also becoming an implementation link of the "Indo-Pacific strategy".

The negative impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty on China's peripheral security is gradually emerging. The risk of the proliferation of land-based missiles stationed in China's surrounding areas has greatly increased, which may appear in two forms, namely, the U.S. R & D land-based missile systems targeted at China deployed in its allies and the systems developed and deployed by Asia-Pacific countries themselves, leading to the deterioration of the security environment around China.

Since 2018, military operations of the U.S. and its allies having monitored DPRK's "maritime smuggling" in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea had become the largest military mobilization and assembly of foreign military forces around China in recent years. The activities of its military aircraft and warships exceed that in the South China Sea, which does not exclude the possibility of using the opportunity to investigate China, and poses a direct security threat to China's coastal and areas along the river banks. In 2019, the U.S. overall military operations in the South China Sea (including the forward deployment of forces and the operational frequency, intensity and pertinence ) were increasing, while "freedom of navigation" is only a fraction of its overall operations. Japan also accelerated its layout in the South China Sea, and several major foreign powers maintained a normalized military presence in the South China Sea. The disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea had cooled down, but the issue of maritime demarcation had become increasingly prominent, mainly reflected in the fishery friction and the development of oil and gas resources. In 2019, there were collisions between Indonesian naval ships and Vietnamese coast guard ships, friction between Chinese fishing boats and Philippine fishing boats and other fishery conflicts in the South China Sea, as well as maritime confrontation between China and Vietnam over the development of oil and gas resources, reflecting the long-term nature and complexity of the South China Sea disputes.

In addition, after a sharp easing in 2018, the situation on the Korean Peninsula had reached an impasse in 2019. Now, the deadline set by the DPRK to call on the United States to improve relations had passed, the two countries had attacked each other, and the situation on the Peninsula witnesses twists and turns, and is possible to return to a new round of "cycling".

The prominent potential hot spot in China's surrounding security environment in 2019 is the Taiwan Strait. Tsai Ing-wen authorities stubborn adherence to the "Taiwan independence" position and refusal to accept the "1992 Consensus" forced a halt to the institutionalized consultations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, restricted and blocked the cross-strait civil exchanges, and subverted the peaceful development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The Tsai Ing-wen authorities’ is willing to serve as the "cat’s paw" for American anti-Chinese hawks, instigate "Anti-China" through Hong Kong chaos, deliberately create cross-strait hostility and comprehensively incite cross-strait confrontation. With the United States and Taiwan region entering the election year, the Trump Administration plays the "Taiwan card" and Tsai Ing-wen authorities plays the "U.S. card" more and more frequently. The U.S. wanton challenge to the bottom line of one China has not only seriously impacted the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, but also become the biggest risk point in the current cross-strait relations. In 2019, some hot and sensitive issues around China were used by the United States as pretexts, the aim of which is to stir up troubles in the entrances to China.

Concluding remarks

Looking back at the international security situation in 2019, it is chaos if we sum it up in one word. But meanwhile, we should also see that the era trend of peace, development and cooperation has not changed, and the positive force to maintain the cornerstone of the global security governance system are accumulating. In July 2019, the Free Trade Area more than 50 countries participated in the African continent goes into force officially, and is the largest new Free Trade Area in the world since the establishment of WTO. In November, the negotiation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) was completed, marking a major breakthrough in the construction of the East Asia Free Trade Area with the largest population, the most diversified member structure and the largest development potential in the world. Although these agreements are achievements in free trade and multilateral cooperation, they will certainly promote the development of global and regional security in the direction of cooperation and dialogue, and bring new opportunities for global security governance. Particularly the Belt and Road construction achieved new progress, a series of major projects such as the China-Pakistan economic corridor, the China-Lao railway, China-Europe trains express, etc. and others have brought great opportunities to various countries along the routes, and also brought peace and tranquility to these countries and regions. A large number of fact shows that the Belt and Road construction will help maintain regional stability, safeguard world peace and also promote global security governance.

Looking forward to the year 2020, the world enters the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, will face more instability and uncertainties: geopolitical games of major powers and arms races in space, ocean, cyber, artificial intelligence and other fields will be more intense, and competition and confrontation will remain the main theme of major powers' security relations; unrest and conflicts in some countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America and Europe will be hard to come to a stop, and there is even a risk of further spread; the hot spots of the world rise and fall one after another, and various factors increase the probability of the occurrence of "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros" events; populism and de-globalization waves have new characteristics such as long-term and proliferation, and the disorder global security make security governance more difficult. "Great governance is achieved through great chaos" may be the due meaning of the great change that the international security hasn't seen in a century. The chaos in the world highlights the governance of China. It is our duty to provide the world with "China's wisdom" and "China's Approach".

( Edited excerpts of the article in Contemporary World Magazine, January 19, 2020)

The UN statistics says that by the end of 2018,the displaced people in the world reached 70.8 million. Syrian displaced children are resettled.