Forget Trade War, China Wants to Win the Computing Arms Race 貿易戰靠邊，中國要在計算領域領先

蘇珊·德克爾 克里斯托弗·亞西耶科 趙根宗

As the US and China threaten to impose tariffs on goods from aluminum to wine， the two nations are waging a separate economic battle that could determine who owns the next wave of computing.

Chinese universities and US technology companies such as International Business Machines Corp. and Microsoft Corp. are racing to develop quantum computers， a type of processing that’s forecast to be so powerful it can transform how drug-makers， agriculture companies and auto manufacturers discover compounds and materials.

Quantum computing uses the movement of subatomic particles to process data in amounts that modern computers can’t handle. Mostly theoretical now， the technology is expected to be able to perform calculations that make today’s computers look akin to1 an abacus.

While overall spending by China is unknown， its government is building a $10 billion National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences in Hefei， Anhui province， which is slated to open2 in 2020. United States-funded research in quantum is about $200 million a year， according to a July 2016 government report， and some researchers and companies don’t believe that’s enough.

One “killer app” 3 may be encryption， the code scrambling technology that secures modern global commerce and communications. China， Chinese universities and western financial institutions are rushing to patent more ways to use quantum technology for encryption， a study by research firm Patinformatics found.

“We’re talking about encrypting data so it can’t be broken， certainly not by a classical computer，” said Tony Trippe， managing director of Dublin， Ohio-based Patinformatics. “It would be an unhackable system.”

At the same time， it could break encryption that was on a classical computer. “An organization or a nation that had quantum computer technologies would have a significantly easier time of wreaking havoc on other systems，” he said.

China has also been aggressive in pushing homegrown innovation as it supports companies in obtaining patents and trademarks around the world， and has increased its research funding. In its annual scorecard， the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development called China “the second-largest scientific powerhouse，” behind the US.

“Over time， quantum in the field of computation is so important that it will redefine the category of computers themselves，” said Dario Gil， vice president of IBM’s Artificial Intelligence research. “It is the future of computing.”

Intel Corp.， which started its own program two years ago， said the technology promises to be “transformational.”

“There are many tough problems to solve before quantum computing is a commercial reality，” said Jim Clarke， director of quantum hardware at Intel. “Some of these problems involve materials science， quantum chip design and manufacturing—those are sweet-spot4 problems for Intel.”

While there will still be a place for what’s being called “classical computers”—a category that include modern smartphones and even super computers—the quantum computers could have “an infinite number of applications” in the fields of life sciences， chemistry and agriculture， IBM’s Gil said.

It’s too early to say which company or country will be the leader in quantum computers， though at this stage it looks like US companies will excel in hardware， while Chinese and Japanese ones are focused on the software and applications， Patinformatics’ Trippe added.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission， created by Congress in 2000 to assess national security implications of bilateral trade between the countries， said in its report that China “has closed the technological gap” with the US in quantum information science， a sector Americans have long dominated， “due to a concerted strategy by the Chinese government and inconsistent and unstable levels of R&D funding and limited government coordination by the United States.”

Studies by the US Chamber of Commerce and Bloomberg have independently shown that China is rising in its overall score for innovation， which includes education， government research and the number of patents. The World Intellectual Property Organization reported that China is closing in on the United States in filing international patent applications.

The Chinese researchers are focused on encryption， based on their patent applications. In August 2016 China’s state news agency said the government had launched the world’s first quantum communications satellite， and a year later claimed to have sent the first “unbreakable” code from space.

In the US， the Department of Energy， Naval Research Lab and defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. are among the government entities or contractors researching quantum computers. Overall， though， the US government has cut back on5 its own funding of computing and cryptography hardware， Dowling said.

In the coming age of quantum， it’s an open question whether federal funding will enable the US to maintain the edge it’s had during the PC era and smartphone wars. Scott Crowder， IBM’s chief technology officer for quantum computing， told that “the US government investment in driving this critical technology is not sufficient to stay competitive.”

“What we’re seeing is a bunch of different things going on at once with no overall organization，” said Jonathan Dowling， co-director of Louisiana State University’s Hearne Institute for Theoretical Physics， “unlike in China， where they are exactly sure what they’re doing.”

在威脅要對鋁材、葡萄酒等各種商品加征關稅之際，中美兩國在進行著另一場經濟戰，而這場戰役有可能決定誰將掌控下一波計算浪潮。

中國的高校和美國國際商用機器公司（IBM）、微軟等科技企業正在競相研發量子計算機，這種數據處理方式預計性能非常強大，足以革新制藥企業、農業公司和汽車制造商發現化合物和材料的方式。

量子計算利用亞原子粒子的運動來處理現代計算機無法應對的大量數據。雖然這項技術現在還基本處于理論階段，但是預計其計算能力會讓今天的計算機看起來像算盤。

盡管不知道中國的總體支出，但中國政府正在安徽省合肥市斥資100億美元修建一個量子信息科學國家實驗室，計劃于2020年啟用。而根據2016年7月的一份政府報告，美國每年量子研究的經費大約為2億美元，一些研究人員和企業認為這還不夠。

量子計算中一個“殺手級程序”可能是加密，這項代碼置亂技術能夠保護現代全球商業和通信。調查公司Patinformatics的一項研究發現，中國政府及高校和西方金融機構急于獲得更多使用量子技術進行加密的技術專利權。

Patinformatics公司總部位于俄亥俄州都柏林，該公司總經理托尼·特里普說：“我們談論的是數據加密，這樣不會被破解，尤其不會被傳統計算機破解。它將是不可破解的系統。”

同時，它可以破解傳統計算機上的加密。他說：“一個組織或國家如果擁有量子計算機技術，就可以很輕松地破壞其他系統。”

中國積極推動本土創新，同時支持企業在世界各地獲得專利和商標，并增加了研究經費。經合組織在其年度排行榜中稱中國是僅次于美國的“第二大科學強國”。

IBM人工智能研究部副總裁達里奧·吉爾說：“隨著時間的推移，計算領域的量子技術將非常重要，會重新定義計算機本身的類別。它代表計算領域的未來。”

英特爾公司兩年前就開始了自己的項目，該公司表示，這項技術有望“帶來巨變”。

“量子計算要實現商業化，還有許多難題需要解決。”英特爾量子硬件主管吉姆·克拉克表示，“其中一些問題涉及材料科學、量子芯片設計和制造，這些都是英特爾面臨的熱點問題。”

IBM的吉爾說，現在所謂的“傳統計算機”——包括現代智能手機甚至超級計算機——仍將有一席之地，而量子計算機在生命科學、化學和農業領域可能有“無限多的應用”。

Patinformatics公司的特里普補充道，現在說哪個公司或國家將成為量子計算機的領頭羊還為時過早，盡管在這個階段，看起來美國公司在硬件方面會很出色，而中國和日本公司則專注于軟件和應用。

美國國會在2000年成立中美經濟與安全評估委員會，評估中美雙邊貿易對國家安全的影響。該委員會在報告中稱，在美國長期占據統治地位的量子信息科學領域，“由于中國政府在戰略上協調一致，而美國投入的研發經費水平不穩定，并且政府協調力度有限”，中國“已經縮小了與美國的技術差距”。

美國商會和彭博社各自進行的研究都顯示，中國創新的總體得分不斷提高，其中包括教育、政府資助的研究和專利數量。世界知識產權組織報告說，中國的國際專利申請數量正在接近美國。

從中國研究人員申請專利的情況看，他們把重點放在加密技術上。2016年8月，中國官方通訊社稱中國發射了世界首枚量子通信衛星，一年后又宣稱從太空發送了第一個“無法破解的”代碼。

美國研究量子計算機的政府實體或承包商中包括能源部、海軍研究實驗室和國防承包商諾斯羅普格魯曼公司。但總體而言，道林表示，美國政府已經削減了對計算機和加密硬件的投資。

在即將到來的量子時代，聯邦政府投資是否能使美國保持在個人電腦時代和智能手機競爭中的優勢，這個問題尚無定論。IBM負責量子計算的首席技術官斯科特·克勞德表示，“美國政府在推動這項關鍵技術方面的投資不足以保持其競爭力”。

路易斯安那州立大學赫恩理論物理研究所聯合主管喬納森·道林說：“我們看到的局面是，一系列不同的項目同時開展，但是缺乏整體組織。中國則不同，他們很明確自己在做什么。”? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? □

（譯者單位：浙江萬里學院）