Forget Trade War, China Wants to Win the Computing Arms Race 貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)靠邊，中國(guó)要在計(jì)算領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先

蘇珊·德克爾 克里斯托弗·亞西耶科 趙根宗

As the US and China threaten to impose tariffs on goods from aluminum to wine， the two nations are waging a separate economic battle that could determine who owns the next wave of computing.

Chinese universities and US technology companies such as International Business Machines Corp. and Microsoft Corp. are racing to develop quantum computers， a type of processing that’s forecast to be so powerful it can transform how drug-makers， agriculture companies and auto manufacturers discover compounds and materials.

Quantum computing uses the movement of subatomic particles to process data in amounts that modern computers can’t handle. Mostly theoretical now， the technology is expected to be able to perform calculations that make today’s computers look akin to1 an abacus.

While overall spending by China is unknown， its government is building a $10 billion National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences in Hefei， Anhui province， which is slated to open2 in 2020. United States-funded research in quantum is about $200 million a year， according to a July 2016 government report， and some researchers and companies don’t believe that’s enough.

One “killer app” 3 may be encryption， the code scrambling technology that secures modern global commerce and communications. China， Chinese universities and western financial institutions are rushing to patent more ways to use quantum technology for encryption， a study by research firm Patinformatics found.

“We’re talking about encrypting data so it can’t be broken， certainly not by a classical computer，” said Tony Trippe， managing director of Dublin， Ohio-based Patinformatics. “It would be an unhackable system.”

At the same time， it could break encryption that was on a classical computer. “An organization or a nation that had quantum computer technologies would have a significantly easier time of wreaking havoc on other systems，” he said.

China has also been aggressive in pushing homegrown innovation as it supports companies in obtaining patents and trademarks around the world， and has increased its research funding. In its annual scorecard， the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development called China “the second-largest scientific powerhouse，” behind the US.

“Over time， quantum in the field of computation is so important that it will redefine the category of computers themselves，” said Dario Gil， vice president of IBM’s Artificial Intelligence research. “It is the future of computing.”

Intel Corp.， which started its own program two years ago， said the technology promises to be “transformational.”

“There are many tough problems to solve before quantum computing is a commercial reality，” said Jim Clarke， director of quantum hardware at Intel. “Some of these problems involve materials science， quantum chip design and manufacturing—those are sweet-spot4 problems for Intel.”

While there will still be a place for what’s being called “classical computers”—a category that include modern smartphones and even super computers—the quantum computers could have “an infinite number of applications” in the fields of life sciences， chemistry and agriculture， IBM’s Gil said.

It’s too early to say which company or country will be the leader in quantum computers， though at this stage it looks like US companies will excel in hardware， while Chinese and Japanese ones are focused on the software and applications， Patinformatics’ Trippe added.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission， created by Congress in 2000 to assess national security implications of bilateral trade between the countries， said in its report that China “has closed the technological gap” with the US in quantum information science， a sector Americans have long dominated， “due to a concerted strategy by the Chinese government and inconsistent and unstable levels of R&D funding and limited government coordination by the United States.”

Studies by the US Chamber of Commerce and Bloomberg have independently shown that China is rising in its overall score for innovation， which includes education， government research and the number of patents. The World Intellectual Property Organization reported that China is closing in on the United States in filing international patent applications.

The Chinese researchers are focused on encryption， based on their patent applications. In August 2016 China’s state news agency said the government had launched the world’s first quantum communications satellite， and a year later claimed to have sent the first “unbreakable” code from space.

In the US， the Department of Energy， Naval Research Lab and defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. are among the government entities or contractors researching quantum computers. Overall， though， the US government has cut back on5 its own funding of computing and cryptography hardware， Dowling said.

In the coming age of quantum， it’s an open question whether federal funding will enable the US to maintain the edge it’s had during the PC era and smartphone wars. Scott Crowder， IBM’s chief technology officer for quantum computing， told that “the US government investment in driving this critical technology is not sufficient to stay competitive.”

“What we’re seeing is a bunch of different things going on at once with no overall organization，” said Jonathan Dowling， co-director of Louisiana State University’s Hearne Institute for Theoretical Physics， “unlike in China， where they are exactly sure what they’re doing.”

在威脅要對(duì)鋁材、葡萄酒等各種商品加征關(guān)稅之際，中美兩國(guó)在進(jìn)行著另一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)，而這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役有可能決定誰(shuí)將掌控下一波計(jì)算浪潮。

中國(guó)的高校和美國(guó)國(guó)際商用機(jī)器公司（IBM）、微軟等科技企業(yè)正在競(jìng)相研發(fā)量子計(jì)算機(jī)，這種數(shù)據(jù)處理方式預(yù)計(jì)性能非常強(qiáng)大，足以革新制藥企業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)公司和汽車(chē)制造商發(fā)現(xiàn)化合物和材料的方式。

量子計(jì)算利用亞原子粒子的運(yùn)動(dòng)來(lái)處理現(xiàn)代計(jì)算機(jī)無(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)的大量數(shù)據(jù)。雖然這項(xiàng)技術(shù)現(xiàn)在還基本處于理論階段，但是預(yù)計(jì)其計(jì)算能力會(huì)讓今天的計(jì)算機(jī)看起來(lái)像算盤(pán)。

盡管不知道中國(guó)的總體支出，但中國(guó)政府正在安徽省合肥市斥資100億美元修建一個(gè)量子信息科學(xué)國(guó)家實(shí)驗(yàn)室，計(jì)劃于2020年啟用。而根據(jù)2016年7月的一份政府報(bào)告，美國(guó)每年量子研究的經(jīng)費(fèi)大約為2億美元，一些研究人員和企業(yè)認(rèn)為這還不夠。

量子計(jì)算中一個(gè)“殺手級(jí)程序”可能是加密，這項(xiàng)代碼置亂技術(shù)能夠保護(hù)現(xiàn)代全球商業(yè)和通信。調(diào)查公司Patinformatics的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)政府及高校和西方金融機(jī)構(gòu)急于獲得更多使用量子技術(shù)進(jìn)行加密的技術(shù)專(zhuān)利權(quán)。

Patinformatics公司總部位于俄亥俄州都柏林，該公司總經(jīng)理托尼·特里普說(shuō)：“我們談?wù)摰氖菙?shù)據(jù)加密，這樣不會(huì)被破解，尤其不會(huì)被傳統(tǒng)計(jì)算機(jī)破解。它將是不可破解的系統(tǒng)。”

同時(shí)，它可以破解傳統(tǒng)計(jì)算機(jī)上的加密。他說(shuō)：“一個(gè)組織或國(guó)家如果擁有量子計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)，就可以很輕松地破壞其他系統(tǒng)。”

中國(guó)積極推動(dòng)本土創(chuàng)新，同時(shí)支持企業(yè)在世界各地獲得專(zhuān)利和商標(biāo)，并增加了研究經(jīng)費(fèi)。經(jīng)合組織在其年度排行榜中稱(chēng)中國(guó)是僅次于美國(guó)的“第二大科學(xué)強(qiáng)國(guó)”。

IBM人工智能研究部副總裁達(dá)里奧·吉爾說(shuō)：“隨著時(shí)間的推移，計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的量子技術(shù)將非常重要，會(huì)重新定義計(jì)算機(jī)本身的類(lèi)別。它代表計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的未來(lái)。”

英特爾公司兩年前就開(kāi)始了自己的項(xiàng)目，該公司表示，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)有望“帶來(lái)巨變”。

“量子計(jì)算要實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化，還有許多難題需要解決。”英特爾量子硬件主管吉姆·克拉克表示，“其中一些問(wèn)題涉及材料科學(xué)、量子芯片設(shè)計(jì)和制造，這些都是英特爾面臨的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。”

IBM的吉爾說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在所謂的“傳統(tǒng)計(jì)算機(jī)”——包括現(xiàn)代智能手機(jī)甚至超級(jí)計(jì)算機(jī)——仍將有一席之地，而量子計(jì)算機(jī)在生命科學(xué)、化學(xué)和農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域可能有“無(wú)限多的應(yīng)用”。

Patinformatics公司的特里普補(bǔ)充道，現(xiàn)在說(shuō)哪個(gè)公司或國(guó)家將成為量子計(jì)算機(jī)的領(lǐng)頭羊還為時(shí)過(guò)早，盡管在這個(gè)階段，看起來(lái)美國(guó)公司在硬件方面會(huì)很出色，而中國(guó)和日本公司則專(zhuān)注于軟件和應(yīng)用。

美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)在2000年成立中美經(jīng)濟(jì)與安全評(píng)估委員會(huì)，評(píng)估中美雙邊貿(mào)易對(duì)國(guó)家安全的影響。該委員會(huì)在報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，在美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期占據(jù)統(tǒng)治地位的量子信息科學(xué)領(lǐng)域，“由于中國(guó)政府在戰(zhàn)略上協(xié)調(diào)一致，而美國(guó)投入的研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)水平不穩(wěn)定，并且政府協(xié)調(diào)力度有限”，中國(guó)“已經(jīng)縮小了與美國(guó)的技術(shù)差距”。

美國(guó)商會(huì)和彭博社各自進(jìn)行的研究都顯示，中國(guó)創(chuàng)新的總體得分不斷提高，其中包括教育、政府資助的研究和專(zhuān)利數(shù)量。世界知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)組織報(bào)告說(shuō)，中國(guó)的國(guó)際專(zhuān)利申請(qǐng)數(shù)量正在接近美國(guó)。

從中國(guó)研究人員申請(qǐng)專(zhuān)利的情況看，他們把重點(diǎn)放在加密技術(shù)上。2016年8月，中國(guó)官方通訊社稱(chēng)中國(guó)發(fā)射了世界首枚量子通信衛(wèi)星，一年后又宣稱(chēng)從太空發(fā)送了第一個(gè)“無(wú)法破解的”代碼。

美國(guó)研究量子計(jì)算機(jī)的政府實(shí)體或承包商中包括能源部、海軍研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室和國(guó)防承包商諾斯羅普格魯曼公司。但總體而言，道林表示，美國(guó)政府已經(jīng)削減了對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)和加密硬件的投資。

在即將到來(lái)的量子時(shí)代，聯(lián)邦政府投資是否能使美國(guó)保持在個(gè)人電腦時(shí)代和智能手機(jī)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中的優(yōu)勢(shì)，這個(gè)問(wèn)題尚無(wú)定論。IBM負(fù)責(zé)量子計(jì)算的首席技術(shù)官斯科特·克勞德表示，“美國(guó)政府在推動(dòng)這項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)方面的投資不足以保持其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力”。

路易斯安那州立大學(xué)赫恩理論物理研究所聯(lián)合主管喬納森·道林說(shuō)：“我們看到的局面是，一系列不同的項(xiàng)目同時(shí)開(kāi)展，但是缺乏整體組織。中國(guó)則不同，他們很明確自己在做什么。”? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? □

（譯者單位：浙江萬(wàn)里學(xué)院）