基于預測微生物學的冷卻牛肉貨架期預測模型的建立

張玉華 孟一 郭風軍 陳東杰

摘 ?要：為實時監測冷卻牛肉貯藏期間的品質變化與貨架期，分別測定冷卻牛肉0、4、7、10 ℃貯藏過程中假單胞菌菌數、總揮發性鹽基氮含量和感官評分。利用修正的Gompertz方程建立不同貯藏溫度下假單胞菌生長的動力學模型，以Belehradek方程為二級模型，描述貯藏溫度對假單胞菌生長的影響，并利用2、5、8 ℃條件下貯藏的冷卻牛肉驗證貨架期預測模型的準確性。結果表明：所建立的Gompertz模型擬合相關系數均在0.99以上，預測結果準確度在1.013～1.126之間，偏差度在0.926～1.057之間，溫度與μmax1/2和（1/λ）1/2均呈良好的線性關系，說明建立的一級和二級模型能夠真實、有效地預測0～10 ℃貯藏條件下冷卻牛肉中假單胞菌的生長情況;貨架期的預測值與實測值相對誤差在±10%以內，該貨架期模型可有效預測冷卻牛肉在0～10 ℃貯藏條件下任意溫度下的貨架期。

關鍵詞：冷卻牛肉;假單胞菌;貨架期;預測模型

Abstract： In order to monitor the quality change and shelf-life of chilled beef during storage， the number of Pseudomonas， total volatile basic nitrogen （TVB-N） value and sensory score of chilled beef during storage at 0 ， 4， 7 or 10 ℃ were measured. The growth data of Pseudomonas were fitted to the modified Gompertz equation. The Belehradek equation was used as a secondary model to describe the influence of temperature on the growth of Pseudomonas. The accuracy of the shelf-life prediction model was verified by applying it on chilled beef stored at 2， 5 or 8 ℃. The results showed that the correlation coefficients of the Gompertz model established were all above 0.99. The accuracy of the prediction results ranged from 1.026 to 1.063， and the deviation degree from 0.984 to 1.063. There was a good linear relationship between temperature and μmax1/2 and （1/λ）1/2， indicating that the primary and secondary models could accurately predict the growth of Pseudomonas in chilled beef at 0–10 ℃. The relative error between the predicted and measured values of shelf-life was within ± 10 %. The model could effectively predict the shelf-life of chilled beef at temperatures from 0 to 10 ℃.

Keywords： chilled beef; Pseudomonas; shelf-life; prediction model

DOI：10.7506/rlyj1001-8123-20190819-186

中圖分類號：TS251.1 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?文獻標志碼：A ? ? ? ? ? ? ?文章編號：

在正常情況下，冷卻牛肉的生產、加工和流通應始終處于0～4 ℃的低溫環境中。然而，目前我國冷鏈系統不完善，加之有的企業為降低冷鏈成本而違規操作，導致冷卻牛肉微生物繁殖加快，品質下降，貨架期縮短，存在安全隱患[1]。掌握冷卻牛肉中微生物在不同溫度條件下的生長繁殖規律，從而對肉的品質劣變規律和貨架期進行預測，可以有效進行冷卻牛肉冷藏鏈管理，將腐敗風險降至最低，保證其品質安全[2]，同時也可以為冷卻牛肉的品質分級和風險評估提供依據[3]?！?br>