基于Bayes判別法的馬尾松毛蟲一代、二代幼蟲發(fā)生期的預(yù)報(bào)

錢廣晶 張書平 宋學(xué)雨

摘要 為了提高馬尾松毛蟲Dendrolimus punctatus （Walker）發(fā)生量預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性，本文運(yùn)用Bayes判別分析法建立安徽省潛山縣1983年-2016年33年的馬尾松毛蟲一代和二代幼蟲發(fā)生期的預(yù)報(bào)模型。一代幼蟲發(fā)生期的判別函數(shù)方程為：f（1）=-15 744.058-361.501x1+60.759x2+133.502x3+511.368x4;f（2）=-16 854.938-375.596x1+70.405x2+132.608x3+529.690x4;f（3）=-17 645.295-384.956x1+73.601x2+134.955x3+541.782x4;f（4）=-18 179.639-382.408x1+71.342x2+135.234x3+549.655x4對(duì)1983年-2018年一代幼蟲發(fā)生期預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果歷史符合率為97.06%，二代幼蟲發(fā)生期的判別函數(shù)方程為：f（1）=-134 898.483+559.235x5+113.112x6-250.033x7+1 461.350x8;f（2）=-138 908.622+573.572x5+118.340x6-252.691x7+1 474.569x8;f（3）=-141 430.680+577.358x5+125.727x6-254.610x7+1 483.336x8;f（4）=-143 185.175+578.968x5+129.628x6-256.102x7+1 491.257x8對(duì)二代幼蟲發(fā)生期的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果的歷史符合率為100%。對(duì)2017年和2018年的驗(yàn)證回報(bào)，與實(shí)況結(jié)果一致。篩選出對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)量有密切關(guān)系的預(yù)報(bào)因子是本方法預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確性的關(guān)鍵，該方法是一種簡(jiǎn)便準(zhǔn)確性高的預(yù)報(bào)方法。

關(guān)鍵詞 馬尾松毛蟲幼蟲; 發(fā)生期; Bayes判別法; 預(yù)報(bào)

中圖分類號(hào)： S 431 ?文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼： A ?DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2019074

Abstract To improve the accuracy of forecasting the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker， the Bayes discriminant analysis method was used to predict the occurrence period of the first and second generations of D.punctatus larvae over a period of 33 years from 1983 to 2016 in Qianshan county， Anhui province. The discriminant function equation of the occurrence period of the first-generation larvae was as followed：f（1）=-15 744.058-361.501x1+60.759x2+133.502x3+511.368x4;f（2）=-16 854.938-375.596x1+70.405x2+132.608x3+529.690x4;f（3）=-17 645.295-384.956x1+73.601x2+134.955x3+541.782x4;f（4）=-18 179.639-382.408x1+71.342x2+135.234x3+549.655x4.The historical coincidence rate of the forecast results from 1983 to 2018 was 97.06%. The discriminant function equation for the second-generation larvae was as followed： f（1）=-134 898.483+559.235x5+113.112x6-250.033x7+1 461.350x8;f（2）=-138 908.622+573.572x5+118.340x6-252.691x7+1 474.569x8;f（3）=-141 430.680+577.358x5+125.727x6-254.610x7+1 483.336x8;f（4）=-143 185.175+578.968x5+129.628x6-256.102x7+1 491.257x8. The historical coincidence rate of the forecast results for the second-generation larvae from 1983 to 2018 was 100%. The verification returns for 2017 and 2018 were consistent with the observed data. Screening out the forecasting factors closely related to the forecasting quantity was the key to the accuracy of forecast. This forecasting method is simple and accurate.

Key words Dendrolimus punctatus larvae; period of occurrence; the Bayes discriminant analysis; forecast

馬尾松毛蟲Dendrolimus punctatus （Walker）分布于中國皖、豫、川、黔、陜、滇、贛、湘、浙、閩、粵、瓊、桂等省（區(qū)），主要為害馬尾松Pinus massoniana Lamb.，還為害黑松P. thunbergii Parl.、火炬松P. taeda L.、濕地松P. elliottii Engelm.、晚松P. rigida var. serotina （Michxa） Loud ex Hoopes、海南五針?biāo)蒔. fenzeliana Hand.-Mazz.等松屬植物。20世紀(jì)中葉在中國森林害蟲中馬尾松毛蟲是發(fā)生最廣、危害面積最大、經(jīng)常猖獗成災(zāi)的害蟲。在廣大丘陵地區(qū)蟲害此起彼伏，針葉常被吃光，被害時(shí)如同火燒，造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益損失和生態(tài)效益損失。再者，人們?cè)趶氖铝謽I(yè)活動(dòng)中接觸馬尾松毛蟲毒毛，容易引發(fā)皮炎和關(guān)節(jié)腫痛，該蟲不但影響林業(yè)生產(chǎn)，還危害人類健康[1-4]。進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)，由于各地采用封山育林、混交、間作等措施優(yōu)化了森林生態(tài)環(huán)境，科學(xué)地運(yùn)用綜合治理措施，使馬尾松毛蟲的危害得到有效的控制，但該蟲具有強(qiáng)大的繁殖潛力，遇到有利的生態(tài)環(huán)境極易暴發(fā)成災(zāi)，對(duì)其的監(jiān)測(cè)不能放松警惕。……