四川省縣域經濟差異的時空動態及變遷機制分析

付洪利　楊紅梅　王昊　劉華連　黃治化

摘要：以181個縣域單元為研究對象，選取14個指標作為評價體系，運用熵權TOPSIS、探索性時空數據分析（ESTDA）和多層次回歸模型等方法，分析了2000—2014年四川省縣域經濟差異的時空動態性及變遷機制。結果表明：1）四川省縣域經濟呈顯著的“核心-邊緣”結構，兩極分化現象逐漸嚴重。2）四川省縣域經濟發展的空間波動性和依賴性較強，大致由中心向外圍逐漸增強。3）四川省縣域經濟空間格局演化的空間整合性強，負向協同發展方向的鎖定性特征突出。4）四川省縣域經濟空間結構非常穩定，經濟發展路徑依賴和空間鎖定特征顯著，低值俱樂部趨同現象突出，縣域的經濟地位相對穩定。5）市場化主導了縣域經濟差異時空格局演化，同時與分權化、科技產業化強化了縣域經濟的“核心-邊緣”二元結構差異。

關鍵詞：經濟差異;時空動態;ESTDA;多層次回歸模型;熵權TOPSIS;四川省

中圖分類號：F127文獻標志碼：A

文章編號：2095-5383（2020）02-0084-09

Abstract： Taking 181 counties as the research object， 14 indexes were selected as the valuation system， and the entropy weight-TOPSIS， exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis ESTDA and multi-level regression model were used to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics and change mechanism of county-level economic differences in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2014. The results show that： 1） It has a significant core-periphery structure of county economy in Sichuan province， and the polarization is gradually worse. 2） The spatial fluctuation and dependence of county economic development in Sichuan Province is relatively strong， which gradually increases from the center to the periphery. 3） It has a strong spatial integration in evolution of spatial pattern of county economy， and has a prominent locking feature of the negative synergetic development directon. 4） It has a very stable spatial structure of county economy， and also has a significant character on path dependence and spatial locking of the county economic development in Sichuan province. There exists an obvious phenomenon of “low level club convergence” in the process of economic development. The economic position of the county is relatively stable. 5） Marketization dominates the evolution of the spatial and temporal patterns of county economic disparities， and at the same time，the decentralization， industrialization of science and technology have strengthened the “core-edge ” structure difference of county economy in Sichuan.

Keywords：economic disparity; spatial-temporal dynamic; ESTDA; multi-level regression model; entropy weight-TOPSIS; Sichuan Province

縣域經濟作為統籌城鄉社會經濟發展的基本單元，是國民經濟的重要基石，在國民經濟發展占有極重要的地位。自黨的十六大首次提出“壯大縣區經濟”戰略后，“擴權強縣”“省直管縣”等大力扶持縣域經濟發展的改革舉措在各省落實推廣，縣域經濟得到快速發展，但縣域發展不平衡問題也日漸突出。因此，準確揭示縣域經濟時空差異及其原因對促進縣域經濟均衡協調發展具有重要意義。國內學者對縣域經濟差異研究進行了廣泛地探討，早期的研究主要選取人均GDP或GDP等單一測度指標[1]，采用標準差、變異系數、泰爾指數等傳統統計方法考察某省域（經濟區）縣域經濟差異的演變趨勢[2-3]?！?br>