“十四五”，一個開放的新階段

編者按:

如何理解“雙循環”？“雙循環”需要改革的關鍵點是什么？“雙循環”的投資機會在哪里？“十四五”時期的發展環境如何？以什么思路發展？有哪些任務和舉措？如何開頂風船，轉危為機，努力實現更高質量的發展……

帶著這些問題，我們與17位頂級經濟學家進行了深入交流。

Editor’s note

What is dual circulation? What are the key points to be reformed for it? What investment opportunities will it bring? What will be the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan? What will be the development ideas? What will be tasks and initiatives? How do we overcome difficulties, turn crises into opportunities, and strive to achieve higher quality development? ……

With the aforementioned questions, we conducted a deep discussion with 17 top economists.

精品書摘未完待續

Excerpts (to be continued)

2020年的新冠肺炎疫情疊加全球經濟形勢的下行，對中國來說意味著外部壓力驟增、中美關系惡化、地緣政治摩擦頻出，在這種外部環境不穩定、不確定的情況下，中央提出了國內大循環和國內國際雙循環的發展戰略。關于這一提法，從2020年全國兩會、企業家座談會上的“逐步形成”，到2020年7月30日中央政治局會議上措辭變成“加快形成”，表明中央已經認識到了問題的長期性、復雜性和緊迫性。今天的中國，已經擁有完整的現代工業體系、深厚的產業工人儲備、先進的物流系統和龐大的消費市場，這些都是中國實現國內大循環的堅實基礎。因此，在當前嚴峻的國際形勢下，提出國內大循環正當時。

關于如何理解國內大循環，需要明確的是形成國內大循環并不等于摒棄國際分工，回到“閉關鎖國”的時期。雖然中國目前擁有國內大市場的優勢，但是國內市場并沒有大到可以容納出口型企業的所有產能。構建國內大循環、國內國際雙循環指的是通過重構國際產業鏈、貿易鏈，使國際循環更好地服務于國內循環。正如外向型企業出口轉內銷，可以發揮國內市場廣闊的優勢，幫助出口型企業暫時渡過難關、生存下來，但并不是完全放棄海外市場，仍要保住已經建立的外銷渠道。中國對外開放的戰略沒有變，只是進入了一個新的階段，并且未來我們還要繼續擴大對外開放。

Under the double whammy of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn, China is facing many instabilities and uncertainties such as a sharp increase in external pressure, worsening relations with the US, and frequent geopolitical frictions. Therefore, the CPC Central Committee put forward the development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement.. The development strategy has experienced a shift from the requirement of “forming step by step” at the NPC and CPPCC Sessions 2020 and the Entrepreneurs’ Forum to that of “accelerating its formation” at the meeting of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau on July 30, 2020. That shows the CPC Central Committee’s awareness of the persistence, complexity and urgency of the above-mentioned issues. Today, China has a complete modern industrial system, a huge pool of industrial workers, an advanced logistics system, and a huge consumer market, laying a solid foundation for achieving domestic circulation. Therefore, it is high time to put forward “domestic circulation” under the current severe international situation.

So, how do we understand domestic circulation? One thing to be clear is that “domestic circulation” does not mean China abandons the international division of labor. This is because the current domestic market is not strong enough to accommodate all the capacity of export-oriented enterprises. Developing the pattern of domestic and foreign markets boosting each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay lies in reshaping the international industry chain and trade chain to make international circulation to reinforce domestic circulation. Taking the export goods for domestic sale for export-oriented enterprises for example, this policy aims to help those enterprises to survive temporarily by taking advantage of the vast domestic market, without abandoning overseas markets. Those enterprises still need to keep their established export channels. China’s opening-up strategy remains unchanged and has entered a new stage. The door to open-up will be wider.

作者：田軒

清華大學五道口金融學院副院長、金融學講席教授、教育部“長江學者”特聘教授、國家杰出青年基金獲得者、北京市卓越青年科學家獲得者、博士生導師，兼任深交所創業板第一屆上市委員會委員，曾兼任證監會第六屆上市公司并購重組審核委員會委員。

Tian Xuan

Deputy Dean of PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University; Chair Professor of Finance; Distinguished Professor under MOE’s “Changjiang Scholars Program”; a winner of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars; a winner of “Outstanding Young Scientists Award of Beijing”; a doctoral supervisor; member of the First ChiNext Board Listing Committee; member of the Sixth Review Board for Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructurings of Listed Companies of the China Securities Regulatory Commission

《我在國際組織的25年》

作者：唐虔

出版社：中信出版集團

本書講述了一個家族與百年中國的故事、一個人與共和國半個世紀的千般沉浮、一個中國人25年來站在國際舞臺參與全球治理的實踐與思考。在書中，我們可以看到一名國際公務員的職場進階之路，以及國際組織中風起云涌的大國較量。聯合國前秘書長潘基文、教科文組織兩任前總干事為本書作序。

《逐夢彝鄉——索瑪花開的地方》

作者：胡正榮 阿克鳩射

出版社：四川民族出版社

本書全面反映了大涼山脫貧攻堅路上，彝漢民族團結一心，續寫大涼山第二次“彝海結盟”，幫扶彝族群眾脫貧走向幸福、奔向小康的感人故事。本書最大的特色是融入了獨特的彝族文化元素和別樣的人文地理景觀，關愛、溫暖的基調貫穿作品始終。作者以幾乎無技巧的寫作手法，完成了寫作的最高技巧，呈現出的不僅僅是一幅美妙的幸福鄉村畫卷，更是一部集先進性與人民性、現實性與藝術性、思想性與審美性完整統一的作品。

《海南島傳：一座島嶼的前世今生》

作者：孔見

出版社：新星出版社

本書以隨筆的話語，敘述了海南島隱秘而傳奇的身世，打撈出沉船一般斑駁的人物與事物，復活再現的同時加以輾轉演繹，從中提取出豐盈而令人驚訝的意義與滋味。全書以時間為軸，以人、物、事為經緯，由點帶面，以個人、具象之事與物作為時代的見證者，展現每個時代政治體系、社會生活以及詩文的發展等，折射出人情、風俗、時代等交叉相織的歷史遷延。著名作家韓少功稱其是“一部‘活’的歷史”。