When Is It Too Late to Give Up Control of Your Finances?自己管錢，想放手時已太晚？

America is getting older. By 2050， one-fifth of the U.S. population is projected to be over the age of 65. And the way we’re aging is changing， too. Older people today are more responsible for managing their finances than they were in the past.

美國正在變老。預計到2050年，1/5美國人將超過65歲，而我們變老的過程也在發生變化。比起過去的老年人，今天的老年人在管理自己的財務方面更加盡責。

Yet there’s no escaping an uncomfortable fact of old age： Nearly 20 percent of Americans 65 or older have cognitive impairment， and nearly 10 percent have dementia.

然而，我們無法逃避一個令人不安的老齡化事實：65歲或以上的美國人中，近20%有認知障礙，近10%患有癡呆。

The intersection of these demographic， financial， and health care trends raises difficult questions about how older people should balance their desire to manage their own money with the possibility of cognitive decline. Do they have someone who can step in to help them if necessary？ And will they recognize that they need help before making a costly mistake or getting ripped off？

人口、金融和醫療保健方面的趨勢相互交織，從而引發難題，即老年人該如何在管控自己財富的欲望與可能面臨的認知功能衰退之間取得平衡。他們是否已有人選，能在必要時介入并幫助他們？他們能否在犯下代價高昂的錯誤或被詐騙之前，意識到自己需要幫助？

New research by Christopher Tonetti， an associate professor of economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research （SIEPR）， finds that older investors are acutely aware of this challenge. “People are very concerned about their future self not handing over financial control when they should，” he says.

克里斯托弗·托內蒂是斯坦福大學商學院的經濟學副教授，也是斯坦福大學經濟政策研究所的高級研究員。他的新研究發現，老年投資者已清醒地意識到挑戰。他說：“人們非常擔心未來的自己沒能在應該移交的時候把財務掌控權移交出去。”

Preparing for the handoff

準備移交

Working with John Ameriks of The Vanguard Group1 and three other academics—Andrew Caplin of New York University， Minjoon Lee of Carleton University， and Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan—Tonetti surveyed roughly 2，500 Vanguard clients 55 and older on how they’ve prepared to manage their finances into the future. （The participants were wealthier and more educated than a representative sample of older Americans， and likely savvier with their money.）

聯手先鋒領航集團的約翰·阿梅里克斯和另外三名學者——紐約大學的安德魯·卡普林、卡爾頓大學的李敏俊（音譯）以及密歇根大學的馬修·夏皮羅——托內蒂對約2500名55歲及以上的先鋒領航客戶展開調查，了解他們為日后個人財務管理所做的準備。（受訪者比典型的美國老人擁有更多財富，受過更多教育，而且在理財方面可能也更加精明。）

Overall， the respondents had a pretty realistic sense of their likelihood of experiencing cognitive decline. （On average， they put their chances of having cognitive decline for at least five years at 29 percent; the actual number is 34 percent.） Most said they already had a family member or friend waiting in the wings who could take control of managing their money. “A lot of people came back saying they had someone available who they trusted would do a good job，” Tonetti says. “That was a bit of a surprise.”

總體而言，受訪者對自身出現認知功能衰退的可能性有著相當現實的認識。（平均來看，他們認為自己最快會在5年內出現認知功能衰退的可能性為29%；而實際的可能性為34%。）大多數受訪者說他們已有家人或朋友隨時待命，能夠接管他們的財富。“很多人回復說，已有自己信任且能勝任的人選。”托內蒂說，“這有點出乎意料。”

Anticipating the timing of this potential handoff， however， is not easy. Understandably， many people do not want to bring in an outside financial agent too soon， sacrificing their ability to make decisions for themselves. Nearly 84 percent of survey respondents said they would not want to give up financial control at the onset of cognitive decline， preferring to wait for a moment before they would completely lose the ability to manage their own money. Yet many respondents also realized they might delay transferring control of their finances because they would not recognize their own cognitive decline.

然而，預測潛在的移交時機并不容易。很多人不愿過早引入外部財務代理人，這是可以理解的，畢竟讓外人代為理財就意味著舍棄自主決定的能力。近84%的受訪者表示，他們不想在剛出現認知功能衰退的時候就放棄財務掌控權，更希望在自己徹底喪失管理個人財富的能力之前再堅持一段時間。但很多受訪者也意識到自己可能會耽誤財務掌控權的移交，因為他們未必能夠發現自身的認知功能出現衰退。

“Most people were concerned that they would hold on to control longer than they should and， by doing this， increase the chance that they would make a big mistake with their finances，” Tonetti says. If they were suffering cognitive decline and it got too far along， “they might make poor investment decisions or be more subject to scams and fraud.”

托內蒂說：“大多數人擔心自己掌控財務的時間超過理應掌控的時間，那會增加自己在財務上犯大錯的可能性。”一旦他們出現認知功能衰退且病情一發不可收拾，那么“他們可能會做出糟糕的投資決策，或者更容易上當受騙”。

The researchers probed how much people would be willing to pay to optimize the timing of this handover. Importantly， Tonetti says， the survey didn’t ask this hypothetical question directly， as people would have difficulty answering it. Rather， the survey design made it possible to analytically deduce the figure. The researchers found that one-quarter of the respondents were willing to pay more than $50，000 to ensure a transfer at the right time. Roughly 15 percent were willing to pay more than $100，000.

研究人員調查了人們愿意支付多少錢來優化移交的時間安排。托內蒂說，要重點指出的是，調查本身并未直接提出這個假設性問題，因為人們很難回答，而此項調查專門設計的問題能讓研究人員分析推斷出數據。他們發現，1/4受訪者愿意支付5萬美元以上來確保在恰當的時間完成移交。約15%的受訪者愿意支付10萬美元以上。

Considering the risks， why don’t older people transfer the management of their finances sooner？ That they don’t illumin-ates a key insight from this research： People want to maintain control of their own finances for as long as possible. What drives this desire， Tonetti says， is not clear. It could be a belief that they’ll do a better job than their surrogates. They may enjoy the process， or perhaps they don’t want to be a burden to others. Whatever their motivation， “there is this desire to control their finances when capable，” Tonetti says. “That wasn’t obvious before we wrote this paper.”

既已考慮到風險，為何老年人不盡早移交財務掌控權？他們沒有盡早移交恰恰說明了研究中的一個關鍵發現：人們想要盡可能久地對自己的財務保有掌控權。托內蒂說，尚不清楚這種欲望受什么驅使。或許是人們認為自己會比代理人處理得更妥當。或許是人們很享受掌控財務的過程，又或許是人們不想成為別人的負擔。無論是何動機，托內蒂說：“人們渴望在能力允許的時候自己掌控財務，而這一點在我們寫這篇論文之前還不外顯。”

Timing is everything

時機就是一切

Another key insight is that people have limited awareness of their mental health. The onset of cognitive decline is often slow， and its symptoms can be difficult to recognize. However， people with significantly impaired cognition may be unwilling to hand over the reins of their finances.

另一個關鍵發現是，人們對自己的心理健康認識有限。出現認知功能衰退的過程通常很緩慢，相關癥狀也很難識別。然而，認知功能嚴重受損的人可能又不愿移交自己的財務掌控權。

“Given people have this limited awareness of their mental health， a desire to stay in control of their finances， and， importantly， a desire to pass control when decline sets in， we ought to have ways to help them understand where they are in terms of decline，” Tonetti says.

托內蒂說：“鑒于人們對自己的心理健康認識有限，又渴望始終掌控自己的財務，并且更關鍵是，還渴望在認知功能衰退來襲時移交財務掌控權，那么我們應該想辦法幫他們了解自己處于認知功能衰退的哪個階段。”

He suggests three ways to make it easier for older people to prepare for a financial handoff. First， doctors could offer regular screenings that indicate a person’s competence in managing their finances. Second， people could have early conversations with their trusted financial agents （often their children） to plan what a transfer of control would look like and what might trigger it. “This would be guidance—not so much on what to do， but on when to take over，” Tonetti says.

他提出了三個方法，方便老年人為移交財務掌控權做準備。第一，醫生可以定期為老年人做檢查，確定其是否具備管理自身財務的能力。第二，老年人可以提前和自己信任的財務代理人（通常為子女）溝通，策劃財務掌控權移交方案，商量在什么情況下可以啟動移交工作。托內蒂說：“這是個指導性計劃——不涉及太多操作細節，而是重點關注移交的時機。”

Finally， financial institutions could design tests or procedures， either automated or conducted by employees， that screen customers for early signs of cognitive decline. If symptoms are detected， then a plan would be in place to contact the client’s fiduciary.

最后，金融機構可以設計自動執行或由員工開展的測試或程序，檢查客戶是否存在認知功能衰退的早期跡象。如檢測到癥狀，就制定計劃聯系客戶的受托人。

“Whatever the method， this is a service that people could clearly use，” Tonetti says. “Our research points not just toward the elderly finding people who can help them manage their finances late in life， but also toward the importance of getting this help at the right time—an ever more urgent need as the population of retirees grows.”

“無論哪種方法，顯然都是人們可以享用的服務。”托內蒂說，“我們的研究不僅提醒老年人要尋找得力人選幫自己在晚年管控財務，還旨在強調在恰當的時間獲取這種幫助的重要性——隨著退休人口的增長，這一需求變得越發迫切。”

1全球第二大基金管理公司。