China’s Peaceful Development Road In the Second Decade of the 21st Century

By Zheng Bijian

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China’s Peaceful Development Road In the Second Decade of the 21stCentury

By Zheng Bijian

Former Executive Vice President, Party School of the CCCPC; Director, China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy;

I’d like to share with you how I look at the prospect of China’s path of peaceful development in the second decade of the 21st century and how China can develop “convergence of interests” and build “communities of interests” with the rest of the world.

I. China’s is entering a new stage in its pursuit of peaceful development.

The 18th CPC National Congress held not long ago elected a new central leadership headed by General Secretary Xi Jinping and set up the goal of further deepening reform and opening up and attaining moderate prosperity throughout the country in all aspects by 2020.

In the last Spring, the 12th National People’s Congress elected a new state leadership and a new administration, and formulated specific policy measures to comprehensively advance China’s economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress. In his closing speech delivered to the NPC, President Xi made further elaboration on the “Chinese Dream” and the historical destiny of China in contemporary times.

Both the report of the 18th CPC National Congress and the report on the work of the government delivered to the 12th National People’s Congress have announced in explicit terms that China will unswervingly stick to the path of the peaceful development, which is not only a major strategic choice of China but also her solemn declaration of foreign strategy to the rest of the world.

These two monumental events herald a new historical period of China’s reform, opening up and peaceful development.

II. China’s path of peaceful development can stand the test of history

Through our hard work in the past three decades, China has charted a path of peaceful development that fits well the conditions of the country and keeps in line with the development of our times.

The 3rd plenary session of the 11th CCCPC in 1978 was a turning point. The Chinese communists represented by Deng Xiaoping, through accurate analysis of the world situation, clearly discerned and seized the opportunity. They introduced the policy of reform and opening up to the outside world. In the course of reform and opening up, a brand new development path has emerged, a path that guides us to independently achieve great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and build a prosperous, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious socialist modern country by integrating into, rather than detaching from, economic globalization.

Thanks to the concerted efforts and determination to develop our country. The past thirty years and more have witnessed dynamism and vitality of the Chinese nation that was never seen before. People are encouraged to think out of box and unleash the productive forces. We have initiated theoretical, institutional, scientific and technological and cultural innovations in the light of our experience in the past three decades. That is why China has been able to achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of almost 10% for 30 years in a row and to turn an underdeveloped country into a moderately prosperous one.

China’s growth is a great contribution to the development of the world. We have, through our actions, proved that we are a staunch force for world peace and have therefore gained status and weight in the international community that we deserve. The sea change brought about by reform and opening up has not only transformed the whole country, but also given us a clear and profound understanding of our role in history and our direction to move forward which could be defined as “peaceful rise”.

As an observer and scholar, since I proposed the concept of “China’s peaceful rise” in 2002, I have always stressed that the word “peaceful” is directed against “China threat” argument and the word “rise” is directed against “China collapse” views, both spread by some international opinions.

In brief, China must and has to choose a development path of peaceful rise that no major countries in the modern history had ever chosen. And this points to the direction that China is taking today.

III. The content of China’s path of peaceful development will continue to expand.

To rise peacefully implies that we must handle properly our relationship with all countries and regions concerned. This is an intrinsic dimension of the peaceful rise concept. For that reason, since 2004, I have further proposed that in the process of peaceful rise, China must gradually enlarge “convergence of interests” and build “communities of interests” in all dimensions with our neighbors and surrounding regions, as well as with all other countries and regions.

I stated my conviction in June 2005 that in the course of peaceful rise, China must and can form closely-knit “communities of interests” with various countries and regions in different fields and at different levels.

Then in the second decade of this century, I further developed this thinking in a number of speeches in and outside China, including my speeches in Washington DC and at Stanford University during President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States in 2011 and my address to the 21st Century Council meeting in France later that year.

IV. Developing “convergence of interests” and building “communities of interests” are in line with the general trends of development of China in the second decade of the 21st century.

The concepts of peaceful rise, of expanding “convergence of interests” and building “communities of interests” find their roots in the ideas and goals of China’s development in the second decade of 21st century.

In the next ten years, China’s development faces a number of serious challenges, such as resources and environment constraints on economic growth; unbalanced economic and social development including imbalances between investment and consumption, between foreign investments in China and Chinese investments abroad, between the city and the rural areas, and between the eastern and western regions; difficult industrial restructuring and insufficient R&D; human resources unable to meet the needs of employment structure; inequitable distribution of incomes and readjustment of interest structure; lagging social governance and increasing social tensions; severe natural disasters and international crisis and pressures, both predictable and unpredictable, etc.

To meet these challenges, our work in the second decade of the 21st century will undoubtedly focus on raising China’s productive forces to a higher level. It means that building on the progress of reform and development in the past thirty plus years, we must make greater strides in the development of productive forces in both quantitative and qualitative terms (especially qualitative terms). That is the focus of everything we do and the very basis of all our effort to solve any problem. Therefore, we must, first of all, make remarkable progress in the development of science, technology and education. Secondly, we must rebalance the Chinese economy and transform our industrial structure (expanding domestic demand and domestic market). Thirdly, we must make great effort to improve social governance aimed to make the Chinese society more dynamic, orderly, environmentally friendly and therefore more harmonious. Fourthly, in terms of foreign relations, we must gradually enlarge “convergence of interests” and build “communities of interests” of different contents and at various levels with our neighbors and surrounding regions, as well as with all relevant countries and regions. What is more, China will devote more efforts to domestic development and to raising ethic standards and inspiring people to work hard for the country. China will become a dynamic country enjoying harmony and stability. Thus China will achieve the goal of peaceful rise and cultural advancement.

Without any doubt, such a China will provide the rest of the world with a bigger market and greater opportunity for development. All this will determine the direction of China’s relations with the rest of the world in the next decade and beyond.

V. Developing “convergence of interests” and building “communities of interests” are also in line with the general trends of development of the world in the second decade of the 21st century.

The vision of China’s peaceful rise and developing “convergence of interests” and “communities of interests” are also in line with the general trends of global development.

The second decade of the 21st century is a period of unprecedented opportunities and challenges for China and the world as a whole.

First, multi-polarity and economic globalization will further increase the interdependence among various countries to the extent that no country can develop itself without working with other countries.

Second, as relations among major countries are being significantly realigned, there will be even more cooperation and competition. Each and every country seeks development through cooperation and tries to gain advantages through competition. It is therefore logical that we must manage competition well and promote cooperation more.

Third, there is now greater momentum for the peaceful rise of large developing countries collectively including China. The next ten years is a crucial period for their development and rise.

Fourth, the international financial crisis has led to a major change in the structure of productive forces on a global scale. A new technological and industrial revolution featuring “green, low carbon and sustainability” is gaining headway. In the post- financial crisis era, global issues such as climate change, energy security, resources, food security and financial security are becoming more acute and the issue of global governance has moved up onto the world agenda requiring urgent attention.

Fifth, economic development patterns of major powers will change significantly, and this will lead to further adjustment in positions of major powers and relationship of their interests.

Sixth, turbulence and geopolitical conflicts of various forms and risks of war in traditional form still exist. We should be neither panic nor ignorant.

Seventh, notwithstanding the changes in the global landscape, the human society will remain in the long historical period in which international relationship is determined by sovereign states. Respecting sovereign rights and territorial integrity are still one of the indispensable basic principles of international relationship.

Eighth, looking around the world, we believe that there are both opportunities and challenges for China and the rest of the world, with the former outweighing the latter.

We have full confidence in continuous peaceful development of China in the coming decade and will not be easily swayed by any emergencies. Given the fact that, in the first decade of the 21st century, China’s peaceful rise becomes an important part of the world development, and a sound foundation of common interests is built between China and the world, then in the second decade. China will continue to follow this development path and become a more important part of the world development. Her common interests with the world will grow deeper, more systematic and more sustainable.

Having benefited from the development path of peaceful rise, there is no reason why China should depart from this path. To realize modernization, we must continue to follow and rely on the theory of peaceful rise.

VI. Developing “convergence of interests”, building “communities of interests” and following the path of collective peaceful development of all countries.

The world is complex and many different factors are at play. In the final analysis, major countries have only three options before them. The first is to continue with the cold war thinking and to engage in various forms of cold war or “cool war”; the second is to engage in local hot wars as another world war is not possible; and the third option is to build communities of interests for common development. We know through our experience what the first two options would bring to the people. We are opposed to both but we are not terrified. As globalization deepens, countries around the world are facing common and completely new challenges. It would be dangerous and would come to no good end if any country responds to these global challenges in the first half of 21st century with old mindset and old strategies employed before 1970s and even in the 19th century. The Chinese are in favor of the third option, which is to pursue the development path of peaceful rise on the basis of solid domestic growth (including national defense) and to enlarge convergence of interests and build communities of interests with all countries and regions in the context of economic globalization.

What should be pointed out is that expanding and deepening “convergence of interests” and building “communities of interests” is an all-directional strategic concept. In other words, it is by no means exclusive. It involves China and the United States, the EU, the rest of Asia especially our surrounding countries as well as Africa and Latin America, etc. In short, our goal is to integrate the interests of the Chinese people and the common interests of the rest of the world, expand convergence of interests with all stakeholders in all dimensions, build communities of interests with all relevant countries and regions in different fields, at different levels and with different content, and work towards the peaceful development of both China and the rest of the world. This of course includes the collective peaceful rise of developing countries including China.

In fact, converging interests between China and the rest of the world already exist. For example, China working together with other countries, especially with the G-20 members to meet the challenges of the international financial crisis since 2008 is the biggest converging point of interests under that particular circumstance. Right now China, the United States, the EU and other major economies need to make adjustments and conduct domestic restructuring to adapt to changes in the world after the international financial crisis. That should become a new area of converging interests.

The idea of expanding “convergence of interests” and building “communities of interests” has become an important strategic guideline of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government. The CPC and government leaders stress this point on a number of international occasions. It has also been written into the CPCCC Proposal on the 12th Five Year Plan and the white paper on China’s Path of Peaceful Development. Both the 18th CPC National Congress and the 12th National People’s Congress also state this point clearly in different ways.

This will become an important approach for the second decade of the 21st century and will give flesh to the concept of “China’s development path of peaceful rise”. It will gain more extensive consensus in the international community.

IIV To observe China and the world with duality

The second decade of the 21stcentury, both China and the world will make big progresses and at the same time face more complicated situations. One issue worthy of study and reflection is to observe China and the world with duality.

The first is the mutual complementary relationship which is the duality of mutual complementation. For example, in the coming decade or even a longer period of time, the Chinese people have to face “dual missions”, which are to carry out economic structure reform, to liberate productive forces, develop productive forces on one hand and to promote social justice and take the road to common prosperity on the other. Here, the special complexity is to liberate productive forces, inspire social vitality and efficiency, and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, which are uniform in nature with promoting social justice and taking the road to common prosperity. However, on specific issues, there may be some inconsistency and even some contradictions. The two are uniform in long-term development; however at some stages in the development process, there may be some inconsistence and even some contradictions. This requires us to help people understand the duality of development and the chronicity of the process while trying our best to properly deal with the current problems. We should base on the current situation, focus on a long-term perspective, and adopt a balanced and comprehensive arrangement instead of attempting to accomplish the whole task overnight or at one stroke. We need to avoid such one-sidedness. Take another example, in the coming decade or even a longer period of time, the Chinese people have to face another dual mission. On one hand, China not only needs to accomplish the traditional industrialization but also needs to make use of information technology to promote the simultaneous development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization so as to catch up with the trend of times of the new, great, unfolding, modern scientific and technological revolution, which has taken place since 1970s. Here, the specific complexity lies in that China will face dual historical challenges in a long period of time while promoting reform, opening up and socialist modernization drive. On one hand, China has to meet the challenges from industrial development featuring big machine industrialization and electrification starting from 18century up to now by capitalism. On the other hand, China has to meet the challenges from the unfolding new scientific and technological revolution featuring information technology, biological engineering, new material and new energy, starting from 1970s up to now by capitalism. The dual missions require us not to simply copy the productive forces of the old development model such as “steel civilization” and “machine civilization”, let alone vigorously repeating the old development model to let capital and technology supplant labor and destroy environment. China must forge ahead to open up a new development road, to liberate the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship based on a better combination of capital, technology and labor, so as to lift to a standard and situation that the country with 1.3 billion population can achieve full employment and attain comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development.

The second duality is two things that are mutual contradictory, but can be of reciprocally transformed. The Report of the 18thCPC National Congress points out that “we face unprecedented development opportunities and risks”. This actually is the relationship of duality, which are mutual contradictory and can be of reciprocal transformation. Seeing unprecedented opportunities, we have to estimate the unprecedented challenges. At the same time, we should see challenges and opportunities can be transformed reciprocally. The historic experiences have repeatedly proven this point. Just in the first decade of the 21stcentury, almost every of our strategic breakthroughs are closely related to turning major crisis into development opportunities. For example, since successfully dealing with the East Asian financial crisis, China has turned itself into the economic engine in East Asia; in 2001, at the turn of the century, China broke the impasse and accessed into the WTO and has started to comprehensively integrate itself into the world market system; successfully dealing with the 9/11 event in the United States, China and the United States began to develop convergence of new strategic interests; in 2008, the cross-strait relation turned the tide and the relation between the Mainland and Taiwan entered to a new stage of peaceful development; since successfully dealing with the serious impact of the international financial crisis and Europe sovereign debt crisis in 2008, China has started to enter the core part of the international system and world economy, etc. Therefore, crisis indeed contains opportunities. Under certain conditions, if we are able to command the situation, capitalize on the trend, we can turn pressures into motivation，turn challenges into opportunities. This is also a successful historical experience.

Generally speaking, the world at large is full of contradictions, conflicts and dualities. However, the general trend of the contemporary world, the general trend of the world in the second decade of the 21st century, including the joint peaceful rise of China with other developing countries, will continue to develop irresistibly.

VIII New strategic opportunities and China’s development

The 18th CPC National Congress Report explicitly points out that an examination of both the current international and domestic environments shows that China remains in an important period of strategic opportunities for its development, a period in which much can be achieved. We need to have a correct understanding of the changing nature and conditions of this period, seize all opportunities, respond with cool-headedness to challenges, and gain initiative and advantages to win the future and attain the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. This means that whether we can grasp the opportunities in the coming decade, turn pressure into motivation, turn challenges into opportunities and attain the grand goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects depends crucially on our understanding and action under the new circumstances of great changes in the world and China.

While assessing the period of strategic opportunities, of course, we should grasp the domestic and international general development trend and, at the same time, should fully estimate one increasingly important variable that is China’s development, which will continuously affect the general development trend of the world. That is to say, among the factors that affect the international economic, political and strategic patterns, the weight of China is becoming ever heavier. In the second decade of the 21st century or even a much longer period of time, although internal and external pressures and challenges are endless, we still face lots of predictable and unpredictable challenges, China’s development, China’s big development and China’s continuous development will become an increasingly prominent and important factor. And this factor will be the fundamental foothold on which we obtain a new important strategic opportunity in the second decade of the 21st century and even in a longer period of time.

Looking into the futur，a strong, democratic, prosperous and stable China will inevitably bring about bigger market and more opportunities to the world and will inevitably make bigger contribution to world peace and development.