Some Observations onthe 2016 International Security Developments

By Jian Hong, International Studies, CASS

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Some Observations onthe 2016 International Security Developments

By Jian Hong, International Studies, CASS

The continuous unrest in Western Asia and Northern Africa and other regions is bringing about a changing global security environment, and the international security situation presents new developments different from the past with more diversified and complex features. To understand the new international security situation highlighted by the complex conflicts and its future trend, particular attention should be given to the suspended coordination and sustained differences within the international community. With the deepening development of economic globalization and world multi-polarization structure, China has ushered in a number of major development opportunities, but also faced with a complex and severe international security situation.

Upon entering the second decade of the 21st century, the continuous unrest in Western Asia and Northern Africa has developed from street politics to armed conflicts even to large-scale wars, from regime changes of Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen to the Syrian civil war and Ukrainian conflict, from the U.S.-led international coalition against the Islamic State to Russian air strike against the extremist organizations inside Syria and so on, numerous and complex changes have produced spill-over effect of the unrest in Western Asia and Northern Africa not only into the entire Eurasian continents, but also affected the relevant governance of international conflicts by the western countries and even the international community.

In view of the overall evolution of the international conflicts in recent years, the reality of more and more international conflicts has shown a complex trend, which involves not only explicit conflicts of the direct confrontation, but also the hidden conflicts of indirect confrontation. Focusing on these complex conflicts -- the new features of the international security situation -- provides another route choice for assessment of the current international security situation, and has enlightening significance to further understand the conflicts in international community and their governance process.

The complex characteristics of international conflicts

With domestic confrontation in Libya, Yemen, and Syria escalated into large-scale conflicts and wars, especially with the continuous spread of unrest and conflicts in Western Asia and Northern Africa, characteristics of complex conflicts could be shown in more regions. As a result, the international community begins to reanalyze the concept of conflict itself. For the understanding of complex conflicts, it is necessary to re-clarify the conceptual definition of conflict in international relations theory. The word "Conflict" usually refers to such a situation: a group with identity (whether tribal groups, ethnic groups, groups with identical language, groups with the identical cultures, religious groups, social economic groups, political groups or other groups) is consciously struggling against one or several other self-identity groups because the goals they pursue are in conflict or seem to be in conflict with each other. According to this definition, a general induction can be made for the conflict related cognition: conflict is a kind of conscious opposition, and involves different goals hedging.1In view of the continuing chaos and its spill-over effect in Western Asia and Northern Africa, it is necessary to further upgrade the understanding of the international conflicts.

the traditional model of conflict still has an important status, and cannot be ignored. In combination with the current international conflicts reality, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Ukraine are still military conflicts in relatively traditional form. In the process of the rising Islamic State, the media and information based on the Internet as carrier are being used more obviously and effectively. As a result, the new type of conflict intervened by relatively new variables together with the traditional military conflict shape a new scene of complexity of international conflict models.

not only the sovereign states play a role in the related conflicts, non-state organizations including the Islamic State, Kahane social network, Hezbollah, Free Syrian Army and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, etc. highlight various roles and status that cannot be ignored in international affairs. In view of the basic posture of the current international conflicts, sovereign states still play a very important role as a whole, especially in the control of the basic trend of the conflicts. For example, since September 2015 Russia began launching air strikes against the extremist organizations inside Syria, the Syria government forces soon turned the defense into the offense. However, as the conflicts get more complex, many conflicts entities witness various non-state organizations with the government backing, which are playing more and more important role in various international conflicts, and carry out large-scale confrontation and gain the corresponding benefits or achieve the corresponding goals by avoiding the formal declaration of war between governments.

Compared with the cold war period or the early post-cold war, the international conflicts in the second decade of the 21st Century have already shown the momentum of their spreading from Western Asia and Northern Africa to the entire Eurasian continents. Major terrorist incidents such as the "Charlie Weekly" terrorist attacks in early 2015, and the terrorist attacks in Paris in November. In France, the former is known as the worst event since the Nazi occupation, and is a milestone for Al Qaeda movement against the West.2The latter directly triggered turmoil in French politics, the National Front, on behalf of the French far-right seized the opportunity for a mobilization and tried hard to gain more support. Although the National Front in the second round of the election was defeated, yet Le Pen is still a popular candidate for the French presidential election in 2017. The influence of the complex international conflicts is expanding geographically or geopolitically, while its impact on the international order and the international system cannot be ignored either. Currently, from Western Asia and Northern Africa to Ukraine and then to East Asia, the impacts of various international conflicts on the existing international order and the international system have been quite obvious. Besides the Islamic State forces take advantage of the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, and break the geopolitical map of the Mid-East region since modern times, and in East Asia, the Japanese Abe Administration is intending, through intensifying maritime rights disputes involving Japan, to attain the goal of overturning the international order after World War II.

and the recessive international conflicts are upgrading covertly. The international conflicts in the South China Sea are both dominant and recessive. It is worth noting that the coexisting dominance and recessiveness of international conflicts is becoming more and more apparent in the disputes of maritime rights and interests as well as the interactions among major powers. In early 2016, as Russia further strengthened its military deployment in Syria, which resulted in worries about the impact of Russia on the U.S. military operations in Syria. Similarly in Ukraine, NATO's main strategic intention is to get Ukraine free from Russian embrace and integrated into the West.3In order to achieve this strategic planning, the Western countries closely related to NATO, with help of the crisis in Crimea and tensions in eastern Ukraine, launched economic sanctions against Russia. In the face of Western sanctions, the Russian Prime Minister Medvedev pointed out that the response stimulated by the unrestricted intensification of sanctions against Russia is not only economic. The above situation shows that the dominant and recessive coexistence has become a realistic trend of international conflicts, and its international influence is more complicated.

the complex international conflicts affect not only the security situation in the closely related regions, but more importantly constitute strong impacts on domestic politics and foreign policies for many countries. In other words, the impacts of international conflicts in the second decade of 21st Century keep expanding, which even influences the domestic political developments of more countries. Taking the 2017 French presidential election for example, with the weakening left-wing parties and losing a large number of public support in the French politics, the upcoming election is likely to be a game-play between the right-wing parties and far-right parties, and once the far-right political party -- National Front -- comes to power, and will bring many changes to whole France from political life to social management. As these changes get deepened, they will further affect the role played by France – the country with the largest number of Muslims in Europe, inside Europe and the international community.

The international security situation is increasingly impacted by the complex conflicts

From the reality of increasingly complex international security situation, it can be seen that the complex international conflicts not only extend their influence on the changing international security situation, but also deeply affect the international relationship interactions in the world, so more and more countries are carrying out active efforts for international conflict management. Although no more effective coordination has emerged in these efforts, the direction of these active efforts can still be regarded as one of the most promising options for international conflict governance. The expression of the international security situation is complexity, rather than simplicity, it is just rooted in the complexity of international conflicts. How to find the confrontational focus among the related opposition parties in the reality of the complex international conflicts, and look for coordinated connections between related parties, especially between the major powers in international conflicts, is an important topic for the international community to give deep thought.

In the reality that the international security situation is increasingly affected by complex international conflicts, the following two aspects need special attention: On the one hand, as the international security situation shows a worrisome direction and process, the corresponding coordination and action among major powers is internally challenged. More practically, while China and other countries provide the corresponding coordination and support for effective governance of international conflicts, the United States, etc. have hidden intentions to contain other countries in the international coordination process. In the second decade of the 21st century, various realities brought about by the global conflicts across the whole world show that the U.S. global strategic power is being challenged. In other words, since the end of the cold war, the overwhelming American military is still seen as the real practical presence in the international political center. However, in the three crucial regions -- Europe, the Middle East and East Asia -- America's rivals have begun to test its determination to use power. The United States made a fairly subjective judgment, i.e. it views China’s and Russia's positive work for regional security as a challenge to the United States, and then take measures of strategic deployment to contain them. On the other hand, the variables of international security situation are constantly increasing, and the coordination necessity of international conflicts management is also becoming more and more obvious. Wavering American power in the global scope and even U.S. deepening suspicions and misjudgments of other country's participation in international conflicts management, plus the growing extremist groups such as the Islamic State forces, Al Qaeda and Boko Haram, etc. in Eurasia and Africa on the whole demonstrate the frequently changing international security situation .

From the perspective of the U.S. strategic deployment interests in the Middle East, a report analyzing the Russian air strikes in Syria pointed out the fact that Russia began air strikes against the terrorist organizations inside Syria means that the civil war of Syria has evolved into an agent war between the United States and Russia, and upgraded to a new stage of the interests balancing between Washington and Moscow. This situation makes the changing relationship between the United States and Russia after the Ukrainian crisis and after the sanctions against Russia launched by the United States more prominent. Whether the U.S. strategic decision-making circle or the U.S. domestic politicians should consider whether to further sanctions against Russia that is fighting against the extremist organizations, and also to carry out the necessary coordination and cooperation with Russia. The United States also needs more clearly how to bring to an end its public opinion mobilization targeted at Russian military action inside Syria and how to coordinate issues in response to changing international relations in the Middle East region between the United States and the Mid-East allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran severed diplomatic relations, etc..

Under the interactions of the above two factors, the interactions of the international relations directed at the international security situation is further showing an unclear and uncertain development trend. For example on the South China Sea disputes, although China and the United States are in de facto confrontation situation, and even the intentional provocation by the U.S. military, yet, from understanding the overall situation of Sino-U.S. relations development, and based on the reality analysis of common interests and common development of the two countries, the possibility of large-scale war is relatively low between the two countries even with the disputes of the South China Sea maritime rights and even China gets control of the South China Sea which is still not a small setback to the United States. True, this does not constitute a substantial strategic threat to the United States, but the U.S. strategic intention with the help of the South China Sea disputes to contain China cannot be covered up.

The uncertainty of the international security situation is increasing day by day

Facing the compound situation shown by the international conflicts, the western countries are carrying out social mobilization for more support, not only to "defend" the so-called political values, but to realize the effective governance of international conflicts. In the eyes of western scholars, in the face of the violent Islamic extremism and the declining global freedom, what the world needs is a powerful and strong universal freedom value. The participation of the western countries in the governance of international conflicts is presenting a more comprehensive process: First, the participation of the western countries in the governance of international conflicts is more for the maintenance of their basic national security interests. The maintenance of this security interests is not only the maintenance of the traditional national security of western countries, but also the maintenance of their basic values. Secondly, the western countries participating in the international conflicts management are actively promoting the internal social integration in western countries, the internal integration reflected within western countries, which prominently demonstrates the efforts in the course of internal political interaction to respond to the penetration and influence from the far-right forces. However, with various problems including impacts of the ethnic, religious, economic situations and others, in the social governance of the western countries, this integration process may not be carried out smoothly. Thirdly, the western countries participating in the governance of international conflicts are actively promoting the effective coordination among themselves. And the realization of this kind of effective coordination will also provide the necessary and indispensable help for the western countries to participate in the international conflicts management. Targeting at international conflicts governance, western countries, especially the United States show an obvious tendency, i.e. taking tougher measures to respond to the current crisis, whether it is related to China, or Russia, or Islamic State threat. For example, some U.S. scholars have suggested that as some disputes occur in Europe and Asia, if the United States fails to show up and abandons its allies in the world, how will Washington be viewed? Who will trust America's promise again?

In reality, the United States maintains continuous changing South China Sea strategy, so we should not only need to pay attention to its policy statement that it does not choosesides in "the sovereignty disputes", more importantly attach importance to the actions it may take. In this regard, there are two points worthy of special attention: Firstly, the U.S. government may be out of touch with its military’s position. This disconnect is likely to pose a danger to its South China Sea strategy, while triggering a new impact on security of the South China Sea and the surrounding regions. Secondly, the United States may make greater use of its allies and partners in the South China Sea disputes, and strengthen the U.S. military presence posture there. From a development trend in the coming period, the United States, in the process of pushing its return to Asia strategy, will still keep the above-mentioned position and posture, and is determined to maintain the existing security order.4To ensure regional security and safety of its allies interests and its own interests, the United States needs to maintain its presence in Asia-Pacific, build stronger military, diplomatic and economic relations with regional partners.

In the future governance process of international conflicts, conflicts management of western countries may take the following three-in-one governance model: Firstly, take a tougher strategic design and opinion, including further using many forms of the complex conflicts management, carry out relatively effective governance action of international conflicts. Secondly, launch more explicit military actions constituting a direct means of mitigation and even an end to an international conflict. Thirdly, take more effective and comprehensive diplomatic measures, constituting an effective guarantee to promote the coordination of international conflict governance. With the comprehensive developing and deepening of the international conflicts management in the western society, the interaction of the international relations on international security in the future will become more uncertain.

Conclusion

In the face of evolving international security situation with features of the complex international conflicts, we need not only to make the full analysis, and take into account more variables, but also pay attention to impact of the changing international relations on the security situation affected by the complex conflicts. Therefore, the paper proposes, on the one hand, we need to take seriously various initiatives from western countries and their behind purposes in the relevant international conflict management process, on the other hand, to correctly understand and actively respond to the new form and new features of the international security situation and its uncertainty of future direction.

Footnotes:

1.[America] James Dougherty, R. L. Pfatzgraff. Jr. "Contending Theories of International Relations", Translated by Yan Xuetong, 2003, p.200.

2.Jytte Klausen， France on Fire--The Charlie Hebdo Attack and the Future of al Qaeda， http：//www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142758/jytte-klausen/france-on-fire

3.John J. Mearsheimer，Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault，Foreign Affairs，September/October，2014

4.Rod Lyon， The US and assurance anxieties in Asia， Sep16， 2015， http：//www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-us-and-assurance-anxieties-in-asia/