The Next Wave in the Internet’s Evolution 互聯網的下一次浪潮

文/ 譯/衡愛峰

By Steve Case

First came getting people online.Then the apps era took over.Now a fresh reimagining is taking off.最先是聯網，然后是應用程序時代，現在開始新的重塑。

As the presidential candidates shift toward thegeneral election2 美國總統選舉先進行初選（primaries），政黨據此決定由誰代表本黨角逐總統大位。本文寫于2016年，正值美國大選之際。, voters will hear divergent plans to address the problem of“too big to fail”financial institutions.The real threat to Wall Street,however, doesn’t come from politicians,but from startups that are disrupting financial services at an unprecedented pace.

隨著各位總統候選人轉入大選階段，選民會聽到各式各樣的計劃來解決金融機構“大到不能倒”的問題。但是，華爾街面臨的真正威脅不是來自政客，而是來自一批初創公司，它們正以前所未有的步伐改變著金融服務的格局。

[2]In 2015 investment in financial technology (FinTech) startups that aim to transform the industry rose to nearly$14 billion, according toAmerican Banker.As they gain customers, the megabanks will lose ground.“Too big to fail”also often means too clumsy to innovate.Already these institutions are finding themselves playing defense.Innovative blockchain technology—the magic behind Bitcoin—could drive further decentralization and disruption.

[2]《美國銀行家》稱，2015年，旨在重塑行業的金融科技初創公司吸引的投資增加到近140億美元。它們的客戶在增加，而大銀行的客戶在流失。所謂“大到不能倒”，往往是指尾大不掉、因循守舊。這些金融機構已然發現自己處于守勢。創新的區塊鏈技術，作為比特幣背后的神秘力量，會進一步推動去中心化，打破現有格局。

[3]But it isn’t just banking.New startups are reimagining how we learn,eat, stay healthy and get around.This is only a start, as the Third Wave of the Internet gains strength.

[3]不過，新的初創公司不僅改變了銀行業，還在重塑我們學習、飲食、保健和出行的方式。互聯網的第三次浪潮正蓄勢待發，而這才只是開頭。

[4]The First Wave was about building the Internet.Companies such as AOL created the underlying infrastructure and brought America (and the rest of the world) online.This phase peaked around 2000, setting the stage for the Second Wave, which has been about building apps and services on top of the Internet.

[4]互聯網的第一次浪潮是聯網。美國在線（AOL）等公司創建了基礎設施，美國（乃至全世界）得以聯網。這次浪潮的高峰出現在2000年前后，它為第二次浪潮搭建了舞臺。第二次浪潮的工作是基于互聯網開發應用程序、提供服務。

[5]Now the Third Wave has begun.Over the next decade and beyond, the Internet will rapidly become ubiquitous,integrated into our everyday lives, often in invisible ways.This will challenge industries such as health care, education, financial services, energy and transportation—which collectively represent more than half the U.S.economy.

[5]現在，第三次浪潮已經來臨。今后10年乃至更久，互聯網將迅速變得無處不在，融入我們的日常生活，而且往往難以察覺。這將對醫療、教育、金融服務、能源和交通等占美國經濟大半江山的行業形成挑戰。

[6]Take education.While the presidential candidates discuss the merits of abolishing or expanding the federal Education Department, entrepreneurs are revolutionizing how instructors teach and students learn.Venture capitalists see what’s coming.Funding for EdTech startups hit $1.85 billion in 2015, accord-ing to EdSurge, up from $360 million in 2010.Former teachers are leading companies that are unleashing—finally—personalized and adaptive learning.While the pundits debate education policy, the innovators are in the trenches improving classrooms all across the country.

[6]拿教育來說，當總統候選人討論聯邦教育部是該廢除還是加強的時候，創新企業家們已經開始對教與學進行革命。風險投資人先知先覺：根據美國教育垂直媒體EdSurge的數據，教育技術初創公司的融資由2010年的3.6億美元上升至2015年的18.5億美元。離職教師帶領眾多公司，最終打開個性化學習和自適應學習之門。專家權威們激辯教育政策之時，創新者們已付諸行動，在全美各地改進課堂。

[7]Or look at health care.As the candidates pitch plans to abolish or build on the Affordable Care Act, the real action to improve America’s medical system is coming from entrepreneurs.They are inventing better ways to keep us healthy, and smarter ways to treat us when we get sick.The revolution in health care is being led by the innovators who are working tirelessly to improve outcomes, enhance convenience and lower costs.And again, investors sense this: In 2015 health care companies raised a record $16.1 billion in venture capital,The Wall Street Journalreported, an increase from 2014 of 34%.

[7]再看醫療，當總統候選人還在就廢除或完善平價醫療法案提出種種方案時，企業家們已經真刀真槍地改進美國的醫療體系。他們正在探索更好的方法維護我們的健康，探尋更妙的手段醫治我們的疾病。領導醫療革命的那些創新者不知疲倦地改善療效、增加便利、降低成本。這方面，投資者同樣嗅覺靈敏：《華爾街日報》稱，2015年醫療公司融得風險投資161億美元，創下紀錄，比2014年增加了34%。

[8]And work itself is changing.Politicians promise to boost job creation,but their debates seem out of step with reality.As more industries become“Uberized,”an increasing share of employees will work multiple gigs.A fulltime job with a single employer could become passé.Thus, how we manage benefits, sick leave and vacation will need to be modernized.That is likely the only path to lifting up the increasingly frustrated middle class.

[8]就業本身也在變化。政客們承諾促進就業，但他們的討論卻與現實不符。更多行業出現“優步化”，兼職工作者越來越多，只為一名雇主工作的全職就業可能過時。因此，福利、病假和休假方面的制度需要與時俱進。要提振日益沮喪的中產階級，這很可能是唯一的途徑。

[9]Second Wave startups have been centered around software: Build an app,do what you can to drive viral adoption,and then find a way to make money(usually by selling ads, but sometimes by selling the entire company).In the Third Wave this approach won’t work as well.

[9]第二次浪潮中的初創公司以軟件為中心，開發應用程序，想辦法推廣，然后再尋找掙錢途徑（一般是廣告，而有時是把整家公司賣掉）。在第三次浪潮中，這種方式將不再適用。

[10]Third Wave innovators will need to learn the lessons of the First Wave: the importance of partnerships, policy and perseverance.They won’t be able to go it alone; they’ll need to go together.They’ll need to engage with governments, as regulators and often as customers.And they’ll need to recognize that revolutions often happen in evolutionary ways.Success will require many alliances, as well as constructive dialogue with regulators.

[10]第三次浪潮的創新者需要從第一次浪潮中汲取教訓，認識合作、政策和堅持的重要性。創新者不能單打獨斗，而要結伴前進。他們需要與政府建立密切關系，因為政府既是管理者，也是客戶。他們還應認識到，革命往往在漸變中實現。要成功，除與管理者進行建設性對話外，還需要建立眾多同盟。

[11]The Third Wave of the Internet is also converging with trends toward regional entrepreneurship and impact investing.The State Science and Technology Institute reports that more than threequarters of venture capital investment in 2015 went to three states: California,Massachusetts and New York.But now we’re seeing the“Rise of the Rest”: Cities across America are differentiating themselves by supporting startups.The next transformative enterprise in food systems could come from the Midwest instead of Silicon Valley.Impact investing—which focuses on purpose as well as profit—is growing, too.Investors,customers and employees increasingly want to believe in the companies that they buy from or work for.

[11]互聯網第三次浪潮正在融匯地區創業和創效投資這兩股趨勢。美國國家科技學會稱，2015年超過四分之三的風險投資流入加利福尼亞、馬薩諸塞和紐約三州。而現在是“眾州崛起”：各城市紛紛打出支持初創的旗幟，以求脫穎而出。在食品領域，下一個創新企業可能來自中西部而不是硅谷。同時注重利潤和目的性的創效投資也在增長。投資者、消費者和員工越來越愿意信賴他們投資、消費或工作的公司。

[12]Politicians and corporate executives should be mindful that the tectonic plates of our economy are starting to shift.They should engage entrepreneurs and seek win-win partnerships, instead of simply watching them with skepticism, or, worse, trying to hobble them with regulations.As in the First Wave,coopetition3 cooperation與competition合并而成的新詞，指合作的同時亦競爭。—blending competition and cooperation—will likely define the coming era.

[12]從政者和公司總裁們也應留意，美國經濟的板塊正開始轉移。他們應該主動與企業家溝通，尋求雙贏合作，而不是僅僅用懷疑的目光審視，甚至動輒拿出規定加以管束。如同互聯網第一次浪潮中那樣，合作競爭——競爭與合作的合體——或將決定即將來臨的時代。

[13]The world is changing for all of us, and a new playbook is required.

[13]對所有人來說，世界都在改變，新的劇本亟待寫就。