稻曲病氣象適宜度等級(jí)精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)

任義方 朱鳳 高蘋 張旭暉 蔡凝昊

摘要

為了有效提高對水稻氣象型病害的防控能力，并提出有針對性的生產(chǎn)管理措施和建議，本文基于構(gòu)建的綜合稻曲病指數(shù)及相應(yīng)劃分的氣象適宜度等級(jí)，利用歷史氣象資料、水稻生育期資料以及兩套精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品，針對2015年和2017年稻曲病典型發(fā)生年份，結(jié)合病害監(jiān)測時(shí)段中易于病菌入侵和流行的氣象條件，選擇病害起報(bào)時(shí)間，分別給出了基于歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心細(xì)網(wǎng)格預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品和江蘇省氣象局精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的稻曲病流行氣象適宜度等級(jí)預(yù)測結(jié)果。通過稻曲病大田調(diào)查資料的檢驗(yàn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)提前7 d給出稻曲病發(fā)生氣象適宜度等級(jí)的預(yù)測結(jié)果與全省實(shí)際稻曲病發(fā)病趨勢和程度基本相符，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對水稻稻曲病監(jiān)測和預(yù)警的及時(shí)性、連續(xù)性和動(dòng)態(tài)性。

關(guān)鍵詞

水稻稻曲病; 病害指數(shù); 氣象適宜度; 等級(jí)預(yù)測; 精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)

中圖分類號(hào)：

S 435.111.4

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2018012

Fine forecast technique for meteorological suitability grade of rice false smut

REN Yifang ZHU Feng GAO Ping ZHANG Xuhui CAI Ninghao3

（1. Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center， Nanjing 210008， China; 2. Plant Protection Station of Jiangsu

Province， Nanjing 210046， China; 3. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory， Nanjing 210008， China）

Abstract

In order to effectively improve the ability of preventing and controlling of meteorological disease of rice， as well as put forward targeted measures and suggestions of production management， historical meteorological data， rice growth period data and two sets of fine forecast products were used to do prediction based on the constructed comprehensive rice false smut index and the corresponding meteorological suitability grade. Taking rice false smuts occurred in 2015 and 2017 as examples， combined with meteorological conditions that prone to pathogen invasion and prevalence during monitoring period， disease initial forecast time was selected， and prediction results of meteorological suitability grade for rice false smut were given separately based on the fine forecast products from ECMWF and Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu. According to the field survey data of rice false smut， it was found that prediction results of meteorological suitability grade for rice false smut given 7 days in advance were consistent with the trends and degrees of actual disease occurred in Jiangsu Province. Therefore， promptness， continuity and dynamism for disease monitoring and early warning could be achieved.

Key words

rice false smut; disease index; meteorological suitability grade; grade prediction; fine forecast

水稻稻曲病俗稱“富貴病”，與稻瘟病菌侵染器官不同，該病僅發(fā)生于穗部，危害谷粒，在病菌不斷繁殖的過程中，以消耗病稻谷粒和鄰近稻粒大量養(yǎng)分的方式，阻礙其營養(yǎng)輸送，造成空秕粒增多，千粒重下降，進(jìn)而影響水稻產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)。自20世紀(jì)30-40 年代開始，我國南北稻區(qū)每年都有不同程度的稻曲病發(fā)生。近年來，隨著水稻品種的更新、栽培新技術(shù)的推廣以及施肥水平的提高，稻曲病已成為水稻生產(chǎn)上一種常見的病害，一旦發(fā)病常常導(dǎo)致大流行，其中以遼寧、四川、湖南、云南和湖北等地發(fā)病較為嚴(yán)重，病穗率一般為5%～10%，重病田可達(dá)30%以上[1-5]。……