基于船舶領(lǐng)域的碰撞危險(xiǎn)度評(píng)估模型

朱凱歌 史國(guó)友 汪琪 劉嬌

摘要：為解決船舶避碰決策中對(duì)碰撞危險(xiǎn)度計(jì)算精度不足和對(duì)危險(xiǎn)目標(biāo)船辨識(shí)性差的問(wèn)題，使用基于Coldwell船舶領(lǐng)域的危險(xiǎn)識(shí)別參數(shù)改進(jìn)多船避碰危險(xiǎn)度評(píng)估模型，比較改進(jìn)前后模型的精度。使用VC+ +實(shí)現(xiàn)船舶MMG運(yùn)動(dòng)模型，對(duì)基于改進(jìn)模型的四船交叉會(huì)遇態(tài)勢(shì)作避碰決策仿真。仿真結(jié)果表明：對(duì)同一危險(xiǎn)船，改進(jìn)模型的精度更高;在多船會(huì)遇中，改進(jìn)模型能夠識(shí)別運(yùn)動(dòng)參數(shù)相似的危險(xiǎn)目標(biāo)船，辨識(shí)性更高。改進(jìn)模型可為更復(fù)雜的多船避碰決策提供理論支持。

關(guān)鍵詞： 船舶領(lǐng)域; 碰撞危險(xiǎn)度; 多船避碰; MMG模型

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)： U675.96 ? ?文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼： A

Valuation model of ship collision risk based on ship domain

ZHU Kaigea，b， SHI Guoyoua，b， WANG Qia，b， LIU Jiaoa，b

（a.Navigation College; b.Key Laboratory of Navigation Safety Guarantee of Liaoning Province，

Dalian Maritime University， Dalian 116026， Liaoning， China）

Abstract： In order to solve the problems of insufficient accuracy of collision risk calculation and poor identification of dangerous target ships in ship collision avoidance decision-making， the multi-ship collision avoidance risk valuation model is improved using risk identification parameters based on the Coldwell ship domain， and the accuracy of the models before and after improvement is compared. VC+ + is used to implement the ship MMG motion model， and the collision avoidance decision-making simulation on the four-ship crossing encounter situation based on the improved model is carried out. The simulation results show that： the improved model is of higher accuracy for the same dangerous ship; in multi-ship encounters， the improved model can identify dangerous target ships with similar motion parameters， which is of high identification. The improved model can provide theoretical support for more complex multi-ship collision avoidance decisions.

Key words： ship domain; collision risk; multi-ship collision avoidance; MMG model

0 引 言

在海上船舶會(huì)遇態(tài)勢(shì)中，使用雷達(dá)標(biāo)繪結(jié)合最近會(huì)遇距離（distance of closest point of approach，DCPA） 和最短會(huì)遇時(shí)間（time of closest point of approach，TCPA） （分別用dCPA和tCPA表示）計(jì)算船舶碰撞危險(xiǎn)度有較強(qiáng)的可實(shí)施性。然而，隨著海上船舶大型化的發(fā)展[1]，該方法的精度越來(lái)越不能滿足航海需要，主要體現(xiàn)在未考慮目標(biāo)船速度、航向的變化且在兩船距離較近時(shí)未考慮船舶大小，導(dǎo)致對(duì)碰撞危險(xiǎn)度計(jì)算延遲或精度不高，致使船舶避碰局面的代價(jià)函數(shù)精度低、誤差大，進(jìn)而使最終的多船避碰決策存在避讓角度過(guò)大、避讓時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)等問(wèn)題，失去參考價(jià)值。

對(duì)于此問(wèn)題，國(guó)內(nèi)外許多學(xué)者做了相關(guān)研究。COLDWELL[2]對(duì)港口船舶數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行聚類(lèi)分析，提出了存在偏移值的船舶領(lǐng)域，使船舶領(lǐng)域形狀不再局限于圓形;LISOWSKI[3]使用最優(yōu)控制和博弈論方法分析了船舶運(yùn)動(dòng)過(guò)程并提出了基于dCPA和……