普陀山客運航線最大承載力分析

高嵩 劉暢

摘要：為推進水路客運市場轉型升級，協調客運需求與疏運能力，基于普陀山水路客運實際情況，分析客運航線承載力的邏輯框架，確立承載力計算數學模型。通過優化碼頭作業流程，模擬最大靠離泊次數，確定碼頭極限承載力;結合船期表，計算船舶飽和數量，確定船舶經濟承載力;考慮乘客候船面積和候船時間因素，創新提出舒適因子，優化船舶運輸周期，確定乘客舒適承載力。模擬結果表明：高峰期客運量已逼近碼頭極限承載力，超過船舶經濟承載力，遠高于乘客舒適承載力，普陀山水路客運供給矛盾亟待優化調控。研究可為客運行業評判最大承載力提供技術支撐，為市場主體有序管理、經營提供決策參考。

關鍵詞： 水路客運; 航線承載力; 碼頭疏運能力; 配船數量; 乘客舒適度; 大客流

中圖分類號： U695.1; U692.3 ? ?文獻標志碼： A

Analysis on maximum carrying capacity of Mount

Putuo passenger transport waterways

GAO Song， LIU Chang

（China Waterborne Transport Research Institute， Ministry of Transport， Beijing 100088， China）

Abstract： To promote the transformation and upgrading of waterway passenger transport market and coordinate the passenger transport demand and distribution capacity， the carrying capacity logical framework of passenger transport waterways is analyzed and a mathematical model for calculating the carrying capacity is established based on the actual status of Mount Putuo waterway passenger transport. The extreme carrying capacity of terminals can be derived by optimizing the operation process of terminals and simulating the maximum berthing times. Combined with shipping schedule， the ship economic carrying capacity can be derived by calculating the saturated quantity of ships. Considering the factors of waiting area and waiting time of passengers， a comfort factor is added innovatively to calculate the passenger comfort carrying capacity and optimize the ship transport cycle. Simulation results show that the passenger flow is approaching the extreme carrying capacity of terminals during the peak time， exceeding the ship economic carrying capacity， and far more than the passenger comfort carrying capacity. The contradiction between demand and supply of Mount Putuo waterway passenger transport needs to be optimized and controlled urgently. The research can provide technical support for the passenger transport industry to judge the maximum carrying capacity， and provide decision-making reference for the orderly management and operation of the main body of the market.

Key words： waterway passenger transport; waterway carrying capacity; terminal distributing capacity; number of ships allocated; passenger comfort; large passenger flow

0 引 言

近年來，普陀山旅游知名度不斷提升，伴隨佛教文化旅游的內在需求和節日朝拜的常態需要，來山游客數量持續保持高位增長，進出口客流量從2014年的1 174萬人次增長到2018年的1 465萬人次，年均增幅5.7%。作為舟山市內最重要的涉旅航線以及進出普陀山的交通主動脈，普陀山—朱家尖航線客流量增長態勢更加明顯，從2014年的828萬人次增長到2018年的1 219萬人次，年均增幅高達10.2%;特別在重要節假日會迎來客流高峰，如2019年正月初三進出島客流量突破18萬人次，較2015年增長27%，再創峰值紀錄，疏運壓力與日俱增[1]。雖然行業主體已經積極落實了多項運輸保障舉措，但大客流壓力不斷挑戰著客運航線承載力和疏運極限，存在著一定的安全風險和隱患，已成為普陀山水路客運發展瓶頸?！?br>