經濟問題不在中國，而在企業的貪欲

杰弗里·D. 薩克斯

China is not an enemy. It is a nation trying to raise its living standards through education， international trade， infrastructure investment， and improved technologies. In short， it is doing what any country should do when confronted with the historical reality of being poor and far behind more powerful countries. Yet the Trump administration is now aiming to stop Chinas development， which could prove to be disastrous for both the United States and the entire world.

China is being made a scapegoat for rising inequality in the United States. While US trade relations with China have been mutually beneficial over the years， some US workers have been left behind， notably Midwestern factory workers facing competition due to rising productivity and comparatively low （though rising） labor costs in China. Instead of blaming China for this normal phenomenon of market competition， we should be taxing the soaring corporate profits of our own multinational corporations and using the revenues to help working-class households， rebuild crumbling infrastructure， promote new job skills and invest in cutting-edge science and technology.

We should understand that China is merely trying to make up for lost time after a very long period of geopolitical setbacks and related economic failures. Here is important historical background that is useful to understand Chinas economic development in the past 40 years.

In 1839， Britain attacked China because it refused to allow British traders to continue providing Chinese people with addictive opium. Britain prevailed， and the humiliation of Chinas defeat in the First Opium War， ending in 1842， contributed in part to a mass uprising against the Qing Dynasty called the Taiping Rebellion that ended up causing more than 20 million deaths. A Second Opium War against Britain and France ultimately led to the continued erosion of Chinas power and internal stability.

Toward the end of the 19th century， China lost a war to the newly industrializing Japan， and was subjected to yet more one-sided demands by Europe and the United States for trade. These humiliations led to another rebellion， followed by yet another defeat， at the hands of foreign powers.

Chinas Qing Dynasty fell in 1911， after which China quickly succumbed to warlords， internal strife and Japans invasion of China beginning in 1931. The end of World War II was followed by civil war， the creation of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949.

Chinas rapid development on a market basis therefore started in 1978， when the government launched sweeping economic reforms. While China has seen incredible growth in the past four decades， the legacy of more than a century of poverty， instability， invasion and foreign threats still looms large.

China is now the second-largest economy in the world， when GDP is measured at market prices. Yet it is a country still in the process of catching up from poverty. In 1980， according to IMF data， Chinas GDP per capita was a mere 2.5% of the United States， and by 2018 had reached only 15.3% of the US level. When GDP is measured in purchasing-power-parity terms， by using a common set of “international prices” to value GDP in all countries， Chinas income per capita in 2018 was a bit higher at 28.9% of the United States.

China has roughly followed the same development strategy as Japan， South Korea and Singapore before it. From an economic standpoint， it is not doing anything particularly unusual for a country that is playing catch up. The constant US refrain that China “steals” technologies is highly simplistic.

Countries that are lagging behind upgrade their technologies in many ways， through study， imitation， purchases， mergers， foreign investments， extensive use of off-patent knowledge and， yes， copying. And with any fast-changing technologies， there are always running battles over intellectual property. Thats true even among US companies today—this kind of competition is simply a part of the global economic system. Technology leaders know they shouldnt count on keeping their lead through protection， but through continued innovation.

The United States relentlessly adopted British technologies in the early 19th century. And when any country wants to close a technology gap， it recruits know-how from abroad. The US ballistic missile program， as it is well known， was built with the help of former Nazi rocket scientists recruited to the United States after World War II.

If China were a less populous Asian country， say like South Korea， with a little more than 50 million people， it would simply be hailed by the United States as a great development success story—which it is. But because it is so big， China refutes Americas pretensions to run the world. The United States， after all， is a mere 4.2% of the worlds population， less than a fourth of Chinas. The truth is that neither country is in a position to dominate the world today， as technologies and know-how are spreading more quickly across the globe than ever before.

Trade with China provides the United States with low-cost consumer goods and increasingly high-quality products. It also causes job losses in sectors such as manufacturing that compete directly with China. That is how trade works. To accuse China of unfairness in this is wrong—plenty of American companies have reaped the benefits of manufacturing in China or exporting goods there. And US consumers enjoy higher living standards as a result of Chinas low-cost goods. The US and China should continue to negotiate and develop improved rules for bilateral and multilateral trade instead of stoking a trade war with one-sided threats and over-the-top accusations.

The most basic lesson of trade theory， practice and policy is not to stop trade—which would lead to falling living standards， economic crisis and conflict. Instead， we should share the benefits of economic growth so that the winners who benefit compensate the losers.

Yet under American capitalism， which has long strayed from the cooperative spirit of the New Deal era， todays winners flat-out reject sharing their winnings. As a result of this lack of sharing， American politics are fraught with conflicts over trade. Greed comprehensively dominates Washington policies.

The real battle is not with China but with Americas own giant companies， many of which are raking in fortunes while failing to pay their own workers decent wages. Americas business leaders and the mega-rich push for tax cuts， more monopoly power and offshoring—anything to make a bigger profit—while rejecting any policies to make American society fairer.

Trump is lashing out against China， ostensibly believing that it will once again bow to a Western power. It is willfully trying to crush successful companies like Huawei by changing the rules of international trade abruptly and unilaterally. China has been playing by Western rules for the past 40 years， gradually catching up the way that Americas Asian allies did in the past. Now the United States is trying to pull the rug out from under China by launching a new Cold War.

Unless some greater wisdom prevails， we could spin toward conflict with China， first economically， then geopolitically and militarily， with utter disaster for all. There will be no winners in such a conflict. Yet such is the profound shallowness and corruption of US politics today that we are on such a path.

A trade war with China wont solve our economic problems. Instead we need homegrown solutions： affordable health care， better schools， modernized infrastructure， higher minimum wages and a crackdown on corporate greed. In the process， we would also learn that we have far more to gain through cooperation with China rather than reckless and unfair provocation.

中國不是敵人，而是一個努力通過教育、國際貿易、基礎設施投資和技術改進來提高國民生活水平的國家。簡而言之，面對貧窮和遠遠落后于強國的歷史現實，中國所做的是任何國家都應做的。然而，現在特朗普政府卻企圖遏制中國發展，這對美國和全世界來說可能都是個災難。

中國被當作美國不平等現象日益加劇的替罪羊。盡管多年來中美貿易關系一直是互惠互利的，但一些美國工人卻被甩在了后面，尤其是中西部的工人，面臨著中國生產力提高和勞動力成本相對較低（盡管不斷上升）帶來的競爭。美國不應將這種正常的市場競爭現象歸咎于中國，而應對自己的跨國企業飛漲的利潤征稅，再利用這些收入幫助工薪階層家庭，重建破敗的基礎設施，提升新的就業技能并投資尖端科技。

美國應該明白，中國遭遇了長期的地緣政治阻隔和與之相關的經濟挫折，如今只是在努力彌補損失的時光。以下重要的歷史背景有助于了解中國過去40年的經濟發展。

1839年，英國入侵中國，因為中國不允許英商繼續向中國輸入致癮的鴉片。1842年，第一次鴉片戰爭結束，英國勝利。中國蒙受戰敗恥辱，成為引發“太平天國運動”的一個誘因，這場大規模反清起義最終導致超2000萬人死亡。抗擊英法兩國的第二次鴉片戰爭最終導致中國國力不斷被削弱，內部穩定受到侵蝕。

19世紀末，中國在與剛剛走上工業化道路的日本一戰中敗北，同時也受到歐美更多不平等貿易影響。這些羞辱使中國國內掀起了另一場叛亂，對外則再次敗于外國勢力之手。

1911年清王朝分崩離析，此后中國很快被軍閥掌控，接著軍閥混戰。1931年日本發動侵華戰爭。第二次世界大戰結束后，內戰爆發。1949年中華人民共和國成立。

1978年中國政府實施全面經濟改革，中國開始以市場為基礎快速發展。雖然中國在過去40年的發展中取得了令人難以置信的成就，但一個多世紀以來，貧困、動蕩、外敵入侵和威脅造成的影響依然很大。

當今，以市場價格計算國內生產總值（GDP），中國則是世界第二大經濟體，但其仍在努力擺脫貧困。根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，1980年，中國人均GDP僅相當于美國的2.5%，到2018年，這個比例也僅是美國的15.3%。以購買力平價作為衡量GDP的標準時，即用一套通用的“國際價格”來衡量所有國家的GDP，則2018年中國的人均收入略有提高，達到了美國的28.9%。

中國大致仿效了之前日本、韓國和新加坡的發展戰略。從經濟角度來看，對于一個正迎頭趕上的國家來說，它的所作所為并沒有什么出格之處。美國總說中國“竊取”技術，這種看法過于簡單化。

落后的國家通過很多方式來升級自己的技術，包括學習、模仿、購買、合并、外國投資、廣泛運用非專利知識，當然，還有借鑒。而且，對于任何高速發展的技術來說，圍繞知識產權的爭奪總是不可避免，甚至美國公司之間至今也是如此——這種競爭只是全球經濟體系的一部分。技術領域的龍頭企業都知道，不應指望通過保護措施來保持自己的領先地位，而應依靠持續的創新。

19世紀初，美國一直采用英國的技術。而且，任何國家想要縮小技術差距，都是從海外招募相關專家。眾所周知，美國彈道導彈項目就是在前納粹火箭科學家的幫助下實施的，這些科學家在二戰后被美國招募。

如果中國是一個人口較少的亞洲國家，就像韓國那樣，只有5000多萬人，那么美國就會稱贊中國的偉大發展是一個成功的典范——中國確實堪稱成功。但中國規模巨大，駁斥了美國治理全球的妄想。畢竟，美國人口僅占世界人口的4.2%，不到中國的四分之一。事實上，由于技術和知識在全球范圍內的傳播速度遠超以往，因此這兩個國家都無法主宰當今世界。

中美貿易為美國提供了廉價消費品和日益優質的產品，同時也會導致美國制造業等和中國直接競爭的行業工作機會的減少。這就是貿易的運作方式。在這方面指責中國不公平是錯誤的——許多美國公司已從在中國制造產品或對華商品出口中獲益。由于中國的廉價商品，美國消費者享受了更高的生活水平。美國和中國應該繼續談判，制定完善的雙邊和多邊貿易規則，而不是以一邊倒的威脅和過分的指責挑起貿易摩擦。

貿易理論、實踐和政策的最基本原則是不要停止貿易，否則將導致生活水平下降、經濟危機和沖突。相反，人們應共享經濟增長的好處，讓受益者補償受損者。

然而，在長期背離新政（指羅斯福新政）時代合作精神的美國資本主義制度影響下，今天的贏家斷然拒絕分享他們的收益。由于缺乏共享，美國政治充滿了圍繞貿易的沖突。貪婪全面主導了國家政策。

美國真正的敵人不是中國，而是自己本國的大公司。其中很多大公司沒有給員工支付體面的工資，反而在攫取財富。美國的商界領袖和超級富豪們都在催促減稅、擴大壟斷、增加離岸外包等任何能獲取更大利潤的事，同時拒絕任何使美國社會更加公平的政策。

特朗普正在猛烈抨擊中國，從表面上看，他認為中國會再次向一個西方大國低頭。美國通過突然單邊地改變國際貿易規則，蓄意打壓華為這樣的成功企業。過去40年，中國一直按照西方的規則行事，逐漸像美國的亞洲盟友一樣趕了上來。現在，美國試圖通過發動一場新的冷戰，突然給中國制造麻煩。

除非有更明智的政策，否則美國可能會陷入與中國的沖突，首先在經濟上，然后在地緣政治和軍事上，最終給所有人帶來徹底的災難。這樣的沖突不會有贏家。然而，當下美國政治的極端淺薄和腐敗使美國走上了這樣一條道路。

與中國產生貿易摩擦解決不了美國的經濟問題。相反，美國需要尋求國內解決方案：減輕醫療保健費用、改善辦學條件、現代化改建基礎設施、提高最低工資，并遏制企業的貪念。在此過程中，美國還將認識到，相較于魯莽和不公平的挑釁，與中國合作能使我們獲益更多。

（譯者單位：華北水利水電大學）