RCEP成員國多次呼吁印度回歸，如此執著為哪般？

黃昀昀

在2019年11月印度宣布退出《區域全面經濟伙伴關系協定》（RCEP）談判之后，15個成員國于2020年11月正式簽署RCEP，完成了8年“長跑”。不過在2020年12月7日，新加坡總理李顯龍在一場活動中表示，希望印度未來重新考慮加入RCEP。

2021年，新加坡將接過東盟—印度對話協調國一棒。李顯龍稱，新加坡期待深化雙方關系，就廣泛課題進行探討。除了新加坡，馬來西亞、日本、澳大利亞等RCEP成員國領導人都曾向印度表示類似的期待。而這背后有著怎樣的考量呢？

印度“退群”意在保護本國農業與制造業

在復旦大學南亞研究中心主任張家棟看來，國內利益集團的抵制是導致印度“退群”的重要原因之一。若加入RCEP，印度勢必在國內進行改革。那就難以避免地觸及少數大家族企業利益，因此他們并不歡迎RCEP?！斑@樣一來，印度經濟的供給端缺少競爭，效率不高;經濟的消費端缺少規模，效益不足。這一經濟結構既困擾著印度經濟，也使得印度難以進行深層次的改革開放?！睆埣覘澱f。

中國商務部研究院國際市場研究所副所長白明分析，印度此舉的根本原因是要保護其國內數億人口所從事的農業和制造業。整體來看，印度的產業結構仍較為落后。世界銀行數據顯示，2019年，印度制造業占GDP的比重不到15%，在全球處于偏低水平?！霸赗CEP的協議下，各個成員國之間關稅降低，將進一步擴大印度持續存在了幾十年的貿易逆差，導致印度商品更難出口，國民經濟或許陷入停滯?！?/p>

對于印度政府的抉擇，印媒《商業標準報》評論道：“印度承擔不起如此做的后果。”

經濟利益驅動東盟期待印度“回心轉意”

盡管印度的中途退出，令RCEP成員國曾經做出的妥協付之一炬，但根據《區域全面經濟伙伴關系協定領導人聯合聲明》，RCEP仍對印度保持開放。目前，印度還可以觀察員身份參加RCEP會議以及和RCEP簽署方舉行經濟合作活動。

為何成員國，尤其是東盟仍堅持不懈地喊話印度回歸RCEP？說到底還是離不開“利益”二字。

眾所周知，目前印度是亞洲成長速度最快的新興經濟體之一。在此過程中，消費市場得到升級，大眾對中高端產品和服務的需求出現了缺口，而印度的產業仍較為低端。

反觀東盟，由于承接了眾多來自中日韓等國的產業轉移，其大部分制造業已邁入中端階段。2015年，東盟宣告完成產業升級。2019年，東盟10國GDP總量為3.14萬億美元，同比增長8.2%。

因此，在很長一段時間內，印度和東盟有條件在產業上實現互補。另外，雖然印度“爽約”RCEP，但其對發展與東盟的經貿關系仍持有較大的興趣。11月12日，印度外交部高級官員達斯（Riva Ganguly Das）表態，印度下一步將重點發展與東南亞的貿易關系。

當我們將視線鎖定在新加坡時，不難發現它是東盟中與印度商業、文化交流最密切的國家。2018年，印度總理莫迪在新加坡舉行的香格里拉對話會上曾表示，“新加坡是我們走向東盟的跳板。幾個世紀以來，它一直是印度通往東方的門戶”。

根據印度政府公布的最新數據，2020～2021財年的上半個財年（4～9月），新加坡流入印度的外國直接投資達83億美元，排名第一，遠超第二名美國的71.2億美元。2019～2020財年，新加坡為印度最大的外國直接投資來源地，占印度外國直接投資總額的30%。

在上海國際問題研究院亞太研究中心副研究員周士新看來，新加坡是地區重要的貿易自由港，相比其他東盟國家，印度的加入對其幾乎沒有負面影響，還可以加強新加坡在RCEP以及東盟中的地位，平衡各國的貿易比重。因此，新加坡在挽回印度方面顯得尤為積極。

加不加入，是個問題

在業界，中印合作曾被認為是RCEP談判獲得突破的關鍵。因為中國與印度皆為亞太地區最大的市場，但貿易逆差又是橫亙在雙方間無法忽視的問題。

按照原有計劃，若印度沒有“爽約”，那么中印兩國將首次打通多道貿易、投資壁壘?！斑@從開拓地區生產網絡、便利地區貿易來看意義重大?！敝袊鐣茖W院亞太經合組織與東亞合作研究中心秘書長沈銘輝說，另外，這于對抗逆全球化和貿易保護主義而言，也具有一定的象征性意義。

在對外貿易方面，印度失去的機會不止RCEP。2019年6月5日，美國政府正式取消給予印度的普惠制待遇。這一舉措將導致美國和印度的貿易關系變得更加緊張。據美方透露，美印之后也不會很快達成一份主要貿易協議。

那么，若印度未來選擇回歸RCEP，尚有機會抓住亞洲市場，尤其是中國市場。雖然印度國內不少人對中印貿易逆差表示擔憂，但也出現了另一種聲音：來自中國的資本也可視為對貿易逆差的彌補。

對于印度與RCEP的未來走向問題，上海國際問題研究院中國與南亞合作研究中心秘書長劉宗義從印度自身發展角度進行分析，他表示，如果印度的制造業有所突破，就有可能深化與東南亞國家的貿易，反之如果自身商品缺乏競爭力的話，就只會變成一廂情愿。

·來源：新華網、第一財經等

Unleash the Potential of RCEP Cooperation

By Kentaro Iwamoto

About two weeks after China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade megadeal with 14 other Asia-Pacific economies， Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to walk the talk.

“As a member of the RCEP， our country should actively promote the implementation of the agreement with our own actions， safeguard free trade and expand new space for win-win cooperation，” Li said at a State Council executive meeting in Beijing on Dec. 1， 2020.

The RCEP grouping of China， Japan， South Korea， Australia， New Zealand and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations constitutes around 30% of global GDP and population. One estimate， published by the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics before the Nov. 15 signing， projected the deal could add US$ 500 billion to world exports in 2030.

The big three East Asian countries — connected by a free trade agreement for the first time — stand to gain the most， according to the study. Chinas exports are projected to rise by US$ 248 billion thanks to RCEP， with Japan seeing an extra US$ 128 billion and South Korea US$ 63 billion. Trade among them should account for a significant portion of the increase.

Another study by the Japan Institute of International Affairs indicated that South Korea may see the biggest economic contribution， with RCEP adding 6.5% to real GDP while Japan gains 5% and China 4.6%.

Sachs agreed that “China， Japan， and South Korea together form a technological powerhouse， and by joining together in RCEP， that technological dynamism of the three countries can be greatly enhanced.” But he also emphasized that ASEAN countries and the whole region should benefit from “peaceful cooperation， more foreign investment， and faster upgrading of digital and green technologies.”

All this hinges on ratification. But an Economist Intelligence Unit report predicted the required six ASEAN countries and three non-ASEAN states will approve the deal by the third quarter of 2021. For now， signatories are weighing how to get the most out of the accord.

In December， the South Korean government hosted a meeting with steel， automobile， machinery and textile industry associations — four sectors expected to reap the sweetest rewards. RCEP countries accounted for 53.2% of South Koreas steel exports in 2020， up from 46.8% in 2019. The steelmaking association expects a 4.3 million ton increase in ASEAN demand for the material in 2021， to 77.3 million tons.

South Korean automakers hope RCEP will help them eat into Japanese rivals 74% share of a Southeast Asian market with 650 million people and 3.5 million annual car sales.

Japanese carmakers， of course， want more ASEAN sales themselves. And Japans industrial equipment makers will enjoy tariff-free access to China on 86% of products， up from 8%， while South Korea will remove tariffs on 92%， up from 19%.

As for ASEAN states already taking advantage of existing FTAs， reduced non-tariff barriers will lead to lower import costs and greater competitiveness， according to Kensuke Yanagida at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. He said Malaysia， the Philippines， Singapore and Thailand can expect more electronics exports， for example.

Beyond tariffs， “RCEP harmonizes rules-of-origin provisions and establishes a single set of regional content rules， effectively creating a single market for intermediate goods that will promote the creation of supply chains across the region，” sid the EIU report. The think tank added that an integrated customs regime could drive foreign investment into smaller ASEAN markets where regulatory uncertainty is an impediment， such as Myanmar， Laos and Cambodia.

This acceleration of Asian trade and investment would follow a sharp global deceleration. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the World Trade Organization forecast in October that global merchandise trade volume would shrink 9.2% in 2020. The International Monetary Fund projected a 4.4% decline in world GDP for the year.

Other recent developments suggest China — one of the few economies set to post growth for 2020 — is determined to grab the reins of the global economy and gallop out of the COVID crisis.

Just before New Years， Beijing sealed an investment pact with the European Union. Days after the RCEP signing， Chinese President Xi Jinping also expressed interest in joining another trade megadeal， the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

But some see complications ahead.

Raj Bhala， a distinguished professor at the University of Kansas specializing in trade law， noted that RCEP is less ambitious than the CPTPP and other major deals when it comes to “breadth of coverage” of goods and services， foreign direct investment and intellectual property.

Alex Capri， research fellow at the Asia-based Hinrich Foundation， made a similar point. Capri said RCEP is a welcome vision of multilateralism but warned the members “have disparate capacity to enforce ‘deep trade standards.”

“In general， the agreement allows individual countries to opt out and cherry pick key provisions. At best， its a tiered agreement，” said Capri， also a visiting senior fellow at Singapores NUS Business School. “Indonesia， for example， has asked for a two-year delay to implement trade facilitation provisions. Even as RCEP champions E-commerce， investment and dispute settlement， individual countries in the region are doubling down on data localization laws.” “Will the agreements provisions ultimately be broadly and uniformly enacted and enforced？ I doubt it.”

Limited ambition and uncertain implementation are not the only factors that could stop RCEP from tipping the global balance. Both Bhala and Capri pointed to Joe Bidens victory over Trump in the U.S. presidential election， and his desire to reassert American leadership.

Biden has not said whether he would consider joining RCEP or reversing Trumps decision to withdraw from what became the CPTPP. But in a Dec. 28 speech， the president vowed to “regain the trust and confidence of the world.”

Bhala predicted that Bidens first couple of years might not bring a major free trade move， “but thereafter youll probably see some stronger efforts.”

· Source： Nikkei Asia

· Original Title： RCEP： China to Gain as Trade Pact Ripples Across Post-COVID-19 World