改進的非等距灰色模型及其在沉降預測中的應用

韓文喜

摘要：在殘差修正的非等距灰色預測模型的基礎上，將傳統無偏灰色模型還原為非等距模型時間函數進行原始數據列的預測。在殘差修正時用時間函數和組合灰色預測非等距模型進行殘差修正，然后將兩種殘差預測值進行加權得到最終殘差，得到最后修正預測值。將預測值與提供的數據列進行比較，表明此方法可以得到較好的預測效果。

Abstract： Based on the non-equidistant gray prediction model with residual error， the traditional unbiased gray model is reduced to the non-equidistant model time function to predict the original data series. The residuals are corrected by using the time function and the combined gray prediction non-equidistant model， and then the residuals are weighted by the two residual prediction values to obtain the final modified prediction value. Comparing the predicted value with the data provided， it shows that this method can obtain better prediction effect.

關鍵詞：改進灰色模型；非等距；殘差的修正和加權；沉降預測

Key words： improved gray model；non-equidistant；correction and weighting of residuals；settlement prediction

中圖分類號：TU4 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1006-4311（2017）03-0136-02