基于對(duì)沖作用的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中口碑傳播模型及控制策略研究

王家坤 王新華

〔摘 要〕[目的/意義]文章旨在探究社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的口碑傳播規(guī)律，為現(xiàn)代企業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)口碑傳播提供決策參考，對(duì)完善網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳播理論具有重要意義。[方法/過程]本文在經(jīng)典傳播模型的基礎(chǔ)上，考慮到口碑的時(shí)效性及正、負(fù)面口碑的對(duì)沖作用，構(gòu)建一種社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑傳播離散模型，分析口碑的傳播規(guī)律；隨后，通過仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)分別研究了網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)、初始傳播節(jié)點(diǎn)的度與比例對(duì)傳播過程的影響；最后，在企業(yè)宣傳成本的約束條件下，提出了社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中負(fù)面口碑傳播的最優(yōu)控制策略。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]結(jié)果表明，在勻質(zhì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中，企業(yè)應(yīng)優(yōu)先提高傳播正面口碑的人群數(shù)量；而在異質(zhì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中，選擇具有強(qiáng)影響力的媒體或公眾人物傳播正面口碑是企業(yè)的最優(yōu)選擇。

〔關(guān)鍵詞〕社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)；口碑；傳播；模型；對(duì)沖作用；控制策略

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2018.10.015

〔中圖分類號(hào)〕G206 〔文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼〕A 〔文章編號(hào)〕1008-0821（2018）10-0099-09

〔Abstract〕[Purpose/Significance]This paper aimed to explore the rule of word-of-mouth （WOM） propagation in social networks，and to provide a decision reference for modern enterprises.It is of great significance to perfect the theory of network propagation.[Method/Process]Based on the classic propagation model，this paper considered the timeless of WOM and the hedging effect of positive and negative WOM，constructed a discrete model of social network WOM dissemination，and analyzed the rules of WOM propagation.Then，through the simulation experiments，the influences of the network topology and the degree and proportion of the initial propagation nodes on the spreading process were discussed respectively.Finally，under the constraints of enterprise publicity costs，the control strategies of negative WOM diffusion in social networks were proposed.[Result/Conclusion]Results showed that increasing the proportion of individual who propagated positive WOM was preferred in homogeneous networks；whereas，choosing a medium with high influence power to disseminates positive WOM was the priority selection in heterogeneous networks.

〔Key words〕social network；word-of-mouth；propagation；model；hedging effect；control strategy

隨著信息技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的普及，民眾受網(wǎng)絡(luò)的影響遠(yuǎn)超其他傳媒方式，消費(fèi)者也趨向于依賴口碑信息（如在線社交評(píng)論等）進(jìn)行決策。以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為主要媒介的信息傳播，可使用戶打破時(shí)間、空間的限制，通過移動(dòng)終端參與社交互動(dòng)，這種便捷的信息交互方式極大地提高了信息的傳播速度，擴(kuò)大了信息的傳播范圍。

口碑（Word-Of-Mouth，WOM），指用戶以微信、微博、BBS等通訊工具和社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)為平臺(tái)，通過發(fā)表、轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)，回復(fù)等方式呈現(xiàn)出的用戶對(duì)企業(yè)產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)產(chǎn)生的評(píng)論[1-2]。在當(dāng)前社會(huì)化媒體時(shí)代的背景下，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)中口碑的傳播對(duì)現(xiàn)代企業(yè)的發(fā)展具有重要影響：一方面，其擴(kuò)大了企業(yè)的影響范圍，拓展了企業(yè)與客戶之間的互動(dòng)，為樹立企業(yè)形象，改善客戶關(guān)系提供了渠道；……