新源縣杏花始花期預(yù)報模型研究

嚴(yán)華 晏中文

摘要? ? 利用新源國家一般氣象站1981—2017年杏花花期記錄資料及同期氣象要素資料，采用相關(guān)系數(shù)計算、氣候趨勢系數(shù)、檢驗方法、逐步回歸等統(tǒng)計方法，研究杏花花期特點及影響因子。結(jié)果表明，杏花平均始花期為4月8日（閏年為4月7日），始花期以2.6 d/10 a的速度顯著性提前，杏花花期基本在3～16 d之間;杏花始花期主要受氣溫影響，其次是日照，與降水相關(guān)性不顯著，與當(dāng)年3月溫度和日照時數(shù)相關(guān)性最顯著;0 ℃初日對杏花始期的預(yù)測可以作定性分析。據(jù)此建立了線性回歸方程對杏花始花期預(yù)測。

關(guān)鍵詞? ? 杏花;始花期;預(yù)報模型;新疆新源

中圖分類號? ? S662.2? ? ? ? 文獻標(biāo)識碼? ? A

文章編號? ?1007-5739（2020）11-0054-03? ? ? ?開放科學(xué)（資源服務(wù)）標(biāo)識碼（OSID）

Study? on? Prediction? Model? of? First-flowering? Dates? of? Apricot? in? Xinyuan? County

YAN Hua? ? YAN Zhong-wen

（Xinyuan Meteorological Bureau，Xinyuan Xinjiang 835800）

Abstract? ? Based on the records of apricot flowering period in Xinyuan National General Meteorological Station from 1981 to 2017 and the data of meteorological elements in the same period，the characteristics of apricot flowering period and its influencing factors were studied by using statistical methods such as correlation coefficient calculation，climatic trend coefficient，test method and stepwise regression.The results showed that the average first-flowering date of apricot was April 8（April 7 in leap years），which was significantly advanced by 2.6 d/10 a，and the flowering period of apricot was basically 3-16 days.The first-flowering date of apricot was mainly affected by temperature，followed by sunshine，which had no significant linear correlation with precipitation.The correlation between the first-flowering date of apricot and the temperature and sunshine in March of the same year was the most significant.First day at 0 ℃ can be used for qualitative analysis of the first-flowering date of apricot.Based on this，a linear regression equation was established to predict the first-flowering date of apricot.

Key words? ? apricot flower;first-flowering date;prediction model;Xinyuan Xinjiang

隨著生活水平不斷提高，旅游業(yè)快速發(fā)展，賞花已成為人們喜愛的旅游項目之一。各地政府也舉辦了具有地方特色的賞花節(jié)，如云南“油菜花節(jié)”、金華“茶花節(jié)”、紹興“蘭花節(jié)”、成都“郁金香節(jié)”、綿竹“梨花節(jié)”等。賞花節(jié)既可以增加地方收入、促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，又增添了生活情趣，但植物花期早晚不一、有長有短，所以準(zhǔn)確的花期預(yù)報利于人們出行安排，對賞花節(jié)的舉辦非常重要。很多學(xué)者對不同植物的花期做過研究，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了花期預(yù)報模型[1-4]。

新疆地域遼闊、地形復(fù)雜，伊犁被譽為“塞外江南”，地處伊犁河谷東部的新源縣是一顆璀璨的“草原明珠”。新源縣總面積9 970 km2，年平均氣溫9.3 ℃，年降水量526.4 mm，年總?cè)照諘r數(shù)2 752.0 h，降水豐沛，日光充裕，屬于溫帶大陸半干旱氣候。杏花谷位于……