技術進步和結構調整對能源消費回彈效應的估算

李強+魏巍+徐康寧

摘要

我國能源消費面臨著滿足經濟增長和降低能耗的雙重壓力，提高能源利用效率迫在眉睫。那么，提高能源利用效率能節約能源消費量嗎？文章基于我國1992-2011年數據對我國技術進步的回彈效應進行了實證分析，結果表明，技術進步所導致的能源效率提高能節約能源消費量，但能源消費的回彈效應顯著存在，我國能源消費的回彈效應介于9%-75%之間。在此基礎上，本文對能源效率的回彈效應進行擴展，提出能源效率的回彈效應包括技術進步的回彈效應和結構調整的回彈效應兩部分，理由是：根據現有能源效率分解方面的經驗研究，能源效率提高可以分解為兩種效應，一是技術進步效應；二是結構調整效應。因此，能源效率的回彈效應也可以分解為兩種效應，即能源效率的回彈效應是指通過技術進步和結構調整可以提高能源效率，進而節約能源消費量，但技術進步和結構調整也會促進經濟的快速增長，從而對能源產生新的需求，部分地抵消了所節約的能源。最后，基于中國1992-2011年數據的測算結果表明，結構調整的回彈效應要遠大于技術進步的回彈效應，技術進步所帶來的能源效率提高同樣能節約能源消費量，能源消費的回彈效應也顯著存在，由結構調整所帶來的能源效率提高對節約能源貢獻不大，不同年份中結構調整的回彈效應呈現出較大波動，絕大部分年份中的結構調整回彈效應處于兩種極端情況，即大于100%或為負值。

關鍵詞 能源效率；能源消費；回彈效應；技術進步；結構調整

中圖分類號 F062.1

文獻標識碼 A

文章編號 1002-2104（2014）10-0064-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.10.010

能源效率的回彈效應是指技術進步可以提高能源效率，進而節約能源消費量，但技術進步也會促進經濟的快速增長，從而對能源產生新的需求，部分地抵消了所節約的能源。因此，能源效率的提高能否節約能源消費量，取決于回彈效應的大小。國內外大量文獻對能源效率的回彈效應進行了研究，不同學者的研究結論存在較大差異，絕大多數文獻的測算結果在0-100%之間[1-2]，但也有學者的測算結果大于100%，即存在回火效應[3-4]。綜合國內外學者的研究可知，現有文獻只測算了能源效率回彈效應的一部分，即技術進步的回彈效應，而忽略了結構調整對能源效率的影響，尚未發現對結構調整的回彈效應進行研究的文獻。實際上，能源效率提高可以分解為兩種效應，一是技術進步效應，二是結構調整效應，與此相對應，能源效率的回彈效應也可分解為技術進步的回彈效應和結構調整的回彈效應。為此，本研究對能源效率的回彈效應進行擴展，并對我國1992-2011年期間技術進步和結構調整的回彈效應進行測算。

1 能源回彈效應測算模型

1.1 模型構建

效應大于100%，即存在回火效應；有10年的技術進步的

回彈效應介于9%-89%之間，有7年的技術進步的回彈效應小于零，即存在過度儲存效應。結構調整的回彈效應方面，有9年的技術進步的回彈效應大于100%，即存在回火效應，表明結構調整并減少能源消費量；有9年的技術進步的回彈效應小于零，即存在回火效應，僅有1998年和2011年的回彈效應介于1%-100%之間，也表明結構調整對我國節能減排效果并不明顯。

4 結論與討論

提高能源利用效率能節約能源消費量嗎？基于我國1992-2011年數據對能源消費的回彈效應測算結果表明：①由技術進步所導致的能源效率提高確實能節約能源消費量，但能源消費的回彈效應也顯著存在，絕大部分年份的技術進步回彈效應介于9%-75%之間，技術進步的回彈效應呈現出較大差異，其中1995、2003、2004和2011年的技術進步回彈效應大于100%；②能源效率的回彈效應進行擴展，提出能源效率的回彈效應包括技術進步的回彈效應和結構調整的回彈效應兩部分。結構調整的回彈效應要遠大于技術進步的回彈效應，技術進步導致的能源效率提高確實能節約能源消費量，但能源消費的回彈效應也顯著存在，結構調整導致的能源效率提高節能效果不大，不同年份結構調整的回彈效應差異較大，絕大部分年份中結構調整的回彈效應處于兩種極端情況，大于100%或為負值。

提高能源效率有利于降低我國能源消費量，其中技術進步的節能減排效果最為明顯。因此，一方面應加大對能源使用技術的研發投入力度，并建立起我國區域間能源使用技術的信息共享機制，提高能源利用效率；另一方面，由于回彈效應的存在使得提高能源效率對節能減排效果有限，加快頁巖氣等非常規油氣資源和新能源產業的發展顯得尤為重要。

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[6]李仁君.中國三次產業的資本存量測算[J].海南大學學報： 人文社會科學版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]劉偉，張輝.中國經濟增長中的產業結構變遷和技術進步[J].經濟研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中國三次產業的資本存量測算[J].海南大學學報： 人文社會科學版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]劉偉，張輝.中國經濟增長中的產業結構變遷和技術進步[J].經濟研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中國三次產業的資本存量測算[J].海南大學學報： 人文社會科學版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment