李壯 胡甚平 高郭平 陶瀟穎 田力



摘要:為采取有效決策行為降低船舶靠泊作業風險,分析船舶靠泊作業流程,結合專家的知識對任務節點進行篩選,得到船舶靠泊作業過程圖。通過對因素間可靠度進行檢驗,構建貝葉斯網絡結構,建立船舶靠泊作業風險決策模型。結合油船靠泊作業相關數據,獲取各節點條件概率,將貝葉斯推理、決策等分析方法應用到模型中,得出一定風險狀態下的風險決策結論。將潮流分為6個時段,根據每個時段的證據推理結果,識別出各時段船舶靠泊作業中的關鍵環節,為相關部門提供參考。
關鍵詞: 貝葉斯網絡; 船舶靠泊作業風險; 決策模型
中圖分類號: U675.92 ? ?文獻標志碼: A
Abstract: To reduce the ship berthing operation risk by taking effective decision-making behaviors, the ship berthing operation process is obtained by analyzing the ship berthing operation flow and combining the knowledge of experts to screen the task nodes. By testing the reliability between factors, the Bayesian network structure is constructed, and the risk decision-making model of the ship berthing operation is established. Combined with the data related to the berthing operation of oil tankers, the conditional probability of each node is obtained, the Bayesian reasoning and decision-making analysis methods are applied to the model, and the risk decision-making conclusion under a certain risk state is obtained. The tide is divided into six periods. According to the evidence reasoning results of each tide period, the key tasks in the ship berthing operation of each tide period are identified, which provides reference for relevant departments.
Key words: Bayesian network; ship berthing operation risk; decision-making model
0 引 言
伴隨全球經濟的迅速發展,尤其是發展中國家工業化進程不斷加深,全球航運貿易依賴度持續提升,各港口國船舶靠港量持續增長[1]。航運業的繁榮導致越來越多的船舶投入生產使用,在促進經濟繁榮的同時,也帶來了嚴重的安全問題[2]。研究表明,在船舶安全事故中,有很大一部分是在港內發生的[3]。船舶安全事故具有發生概率較小,事故后果較為嚴重的特點,一旦發生事故,不僅會嚴重威脅生命財產安全,而且會帶來惡劣的社會影響??坎醋鳂I作為船舶港內作業的重要任務環節,應當對其風險進行評估,并及時采用相應的管理措施,以保證船舶靠泊作業的安全。
目前,對于港口船舶靠泊安全作業的研究多集中于風險的定性或……